Anyone else feel like we're heading for a Brokered Convention? (Lots of Numbers)

[tekisui]

We've had 26 states vote in Primaries or Caucuses so far. Two of those states, Florida and Michigan, have been sanctioned and stripped of their delegates, super and pledged.

Of the 24 states whose votes are being honored, 15,203,809 people have cast votes for either Obama or Clinton. As of right now, the Popular Vote Count is:

Obama: 7,743,323

Clinton: 7,460,486

Obama has a lead, of only 282,837 more individuals voting for him.


The Delegate Count, still being calculated from Tuesday's votes stand at:

Clinton: 619

Obama: 614

Clinton leads by only 5 Pledged Delegates. 559 have yet to be placed from Tuesday's vote, with 300 of those from California.

Adding the Super Delegates:

Clinton: 619+201(supers)=820

Obama: 614+110(supers)=724

Clnton leads by 96. 485 Superdelegates have yet to declare where their vote would go.

If Obama and Clinton keep splitting the Pledged(voted) Delegates to the last Primary, they would each sit around 1628 total. Not enough to win the Nomination. Adding, the current Super delegate allocation gives these numbers:

Clinton: 1828
Obama: 1738

In this scenario, either would need heavy support from the superdelegates to bridge the gap to the magic number, 2,026. Clinton has a higher percentage of the supers, and even a split in half with them would give her the nod. But, at what consequence?

How would a superdelegate tilted win be perceived and accepted by Democratic voters, especially those who have come new to the Party this Primary? Especially to those who came new to this Primary because of excitement for Obama. It can't be denied that he has generated impressive interest in the political process among many who have never cared or felt a reason to be involved.

We all hope regardless of who becomes our Nominee that ALL the Democratic voters will come back in the Fall, and motivate those around them to do the same. I believe most would, based on a popular vote, pledged delegate win. I am not so sure about a superdelegate decided victory.

I am seeing a brokered convention. And when no clear winner is known on the first round of balloting, all delegates will be released, including Florida and Michigan. And who knows where they will land?

At that point, Florida and Michigan will be joined by every voter of every state in not having a say in the final outcome of the Primary.

We, conceivably, could be handed a Nominee. One who didn't receive the Popular Vote, one who didn't receive the Pledged Delegates. One, potentially, that didn't even run. I don't see how that would happen, but who knows?

This is why I think, more and more, that we may already have our ticket.

We just don't have the order.

[tekisui]

1. It's going to stink for somebody before it's over.

[blm]

2. No. Yesterday shows Obama's campaign is only gaining in strength at the exact time

when his opponent is showing visible weakening and going into a set of states where Obama is ALREADY strong and also has a huge money advantage.

[lyonn]

3. Thanks for this resume

Hopefully the coming primaries can sort this out. What bothers me is that the big boys/girls of the party will figure it out for us! Again.....

[bullimiami]

4. i feel that obama might go in for vp if offered. do you think hillary would?

[tekisui]

5. I'm not sure HIllary would take it. But, I really have no way of knowing.

At this point, I really hate to think of the prospect of losing either of them in the Presidential race. I am afraid of what Obama's youth voters may do. But, also respect the passion of Clinton's supporters. They are really building up this Party, and I like to see it build some more.

[bullimiami]

7. what do you think about what dean said today ...

about the candidates settling it by mar - apr if neither has the delegates to take it outright and how a brokered convention would be bad.

i dont think i agree that a brokered convention is bad.

[tekisui]

9. It could be bad. It is odd to me that Dean would think a candidate deal

would not spark outrage, but a brokered convention would. I hope niether happens. The worry is a brokered convention could select the candidate that received fewer popular votes, or even fewer delegates, or in theory, someone else.

It looks like it will be decided by superdelegates. I think that is what Dean wants to aviod. He would rather one or the other grasiously, and hmbly bow out for a good position, and avoid the messiness of the supers deciding it for us.

[kestrel91316]

6. Uh, kinda sorta. Oh, well, like I said, I don't really HAVE a dog in this fight.

Done went and voted for Edwards, and now I am just sitting back and enjoying the ride.

[NJSecularist]

8. If Obama can win in Texas and Ohio, we aren't going to a brokered convention

Other than that, I agree with you.

[joshcryer]

10. Dean said he'd have a sit down with the candidates if this gets near to happening.

I trust he'll figure out the fair candidate.