Did you expect, 6 months ago, for Obama and Clinton to be basically tied after Super Tuesday?

[Colobo]

Yes? No? Let's share our stories! :bounce:

I honestly thought then Obama was going to get routed on Super Tuesday. I thought then he didn't have that it takes to beat the Clintons.

Gladly, I was freaking wrong.

[Colobo]

1. Kick.

[Bullet1987]

2. I honestly didn't know how Obama would do...

because I knew how he fared in early states would determine how far he went in the election. He surprised in Iowa and won a rout in SC.

[goldcanyonaz]

3. With the media coverage, I honestly thought that Obama would steamroll Clinton.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

4. yes, i did.

[MikeNearMcChord]

5. No I figured it would be Hillary's, with a strong challenge by John Edwards

unless Al Gore stepped in,and all bets would be off.

[Perky]

6. I been saying that it would shake out this way since December

John Edwards was a great candidate...But I am glad he is out.....His continuing on proabbly guaranteed a brokered convention.

[RoadRage]

7. I didn't know if Clinton would still be doing this well..

I underestimated her strength on the coasts. Here in the midwest, everyone dispises her... I thought that would carry over.

I still think Obama has a great shot at winning the primary though!

[Scurrilous]

8. I thought the inevitable would have happened by now.

Guess not...

[goldcanyonaz]

9. Yeah, I also thought Obama would have had it in the bag.

[hogwyld]

14. I always thought Hillary was the inevitable one

And all of the primaries were more or less a dress rehearsal. At most, maybe a wave of the hand at Edwards. I mean, if you look at it objectively, Hillary had enormouse built in advantages with her name, and considering how early she had declared her candidacy along with about a year of campaigning, I'm surprised at how close it actually is.

[Scurrilous]

17. That's what I thought also. n/t

[joshcryer]

10. I predicted a horse race before IH or NH.

[stillcool]

11. None of the above...

From what I was reading here, I didn't think Obama had a chance. I am very, very pleased that what I was reading on DU does not reflect the attitude of the American populace. Yes we can.

[RunningFromCongress]

12. Why no: "I thought Hillary would run away with it"?

[okasha]

13. The thing that surprised me was Edwards' dropping out.

But any two-way race, given halfway competent candidates, will tighten as undecideds make up their minds and the bandwagon effect begins to operate. That's just the way politics works. No surprise there. (And sometimes it works when one of the candidates isn't competent at all. Look at Shrub. He couldn't have stolen 2000 if it hadn't been close as a hair to begin with--thank you very much Ralph Nader.)

That said, I think a significant part of the analysis has to be the fact that many of the states that Obama won heavily will go red in the general. Hillary did better in the states that are more dependably blue and that have a heftier electoral college count. The pros and the funders are going to be looking at those trends. If she wins in electoral-vote rich Ohio and Texas, we probably are not looking at a brokered convention and we will be looking at Texas in play in the general.

[onehandle]

15. If it would have been Edwards vs. Hillary, as it should have been, this thing would be over.

Edwards would have beaten her.

Take that however you like.

[dmallind]

16. I can't choose any of the judgmental options above but no

Not because I thought Obama was a political lightweight who didn't have a chance but because I thought Hillary's hold on the party statesmen, volunteers and "machine" would be less prone to being taken away than it has been. Obama has done a good job of not only energizing the new which was always a given, but swaying the established party loyalists too - an impressive feat for a relative newcomer on the national stage.

[BlakeB]

18. Honestly...

I did not think Obama would still be in the race the way he currently is. Truth be told, at the outset of this whole primary campaign I began supporting Barack, but I really only believed he had the faintest chance of winning against Hillary. I hoped he might be able to pull off some magic, but 6 months, or even 2 months ago, I was quite unsure about Barack's chances going forward-despite the hype his campaign had received.

Yet, here we are, months later, looking at the prospect of a lengthy primary campaign and a war of attrition between Obama and Clinton. Barack's performance in Super Tuesday was just the kind of showing he needed to position himself for a strong run towards the nomination. I certainly did not, even as recently as two weeks ago, think Barack would do well enough on Super Tuesday to stay truly competitive; yet, Barack has emerged as the guy all of us Obama people thought he could be from day 1 of our support, and in his emergence he has found a way to not only be competitive, but to seriously challenge for a nomination that once seemed a Hillary lock.

Barack's gonna be carrying some good momentum going forward, but this primary is far from over.