OBAMA WON HIS STATES BY AN AVERAGE OF 28 POINTS - CLINTON 19

[THUNDER HANDS]

Average Margin of Victory - Obama

Idaho = 64 points.
Kansas = 48 points.
Alaska = 46 points.
Colorado = 35 points.
Minnesota = 35 points.
Georgia = 34 points.
Illinois = 32 points.
North Dakota = 24 points.
Utah = 16 points.
Alabama = 14 points.
Delaware = 10 points.
Connecticut = 4 points.
Missouri = 1 point.

Total average margin of victory = 27.5

Average Margin of Victory - Clinton

California = 21 points.
Arizona = 10 points.
New Jersey = 10 points.
Massachusettes = 15 points.
New York = 17 points.
Tennessee = 13 points.
Arkansas = 41 points.
Oklahoma = 24 points.

Total average margin of victory = 18.8

[Maven]

1. Caucuses vs. Primaries

Again, an important distinction to keep in mind.

[blm]

2. Illinois?

.

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. oh crap, i forgot that one

his margin would still be around the same though. But thanks for catching that.

[quinnox]

3. Hillary won all the important states except for Missouri

and her states were all the most valuable in terms of delegates.

[my3boyz]

5. And she is still behind in delegates.

[Texas_Kat]

6. Not according to CNN

According to CNN, CLinton is about 100 delegates ahead.

[THUNDER HANDS]

7. and that's precisely because of the MARGIN OF VICTORY

which is important.

Clinton needed to put Obama away in the states she won, and she didn't.

[scheming daemons]

9. Then why did she win less delegates tonight?

....and the difference between Obama and Clinton... .and why Obama will ultimately win this... is that he considers EVERY state to be important!


Like another poster said.... Obama is the 50-state candidate, Clinton is the red-vs-blue-state candidate.


Tonight was another data point proving that Obama has a better chance to win in November than Hillary. Obama will win all the states in November that Hillary won tonight (except maybe Oklahoma and Arkansas), but he'd ALSO win states that Hillary CANNOT win.


I think either candidate would probably win in November over McCain..... but Obama, it is clear now, would win by more.

[Dogmudgeon]

8. What are the population averages?

The Republicans played this game in 2004 and 2000, and also had their red/blue county-by-county maps.

Hillary may have won a lot more votes. I think that's the case -- the populations of the states she won are higher. Even ter underperformance in NY gives her more votes than Obama's small states. Alaska wins him about 2000 votes and her, 1000.

It's easy to game outcomes with political races. Delegates are what count, but the popular vote is of tremendous importance in perceptions. It's going to take a day or two to get those final figures.

--p!

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. it doesn't matter

what matters is margin of victory because that's how the delegates are awarded.

[Yossariant]

10. Take your consolation wherever you can find it.

[THUNDER HANDS]

12. it's not consolation when you win more states and more delegates.