*** SUPER TUESDAY: Delegate PREDICTIONS (Based on latest polls) ***

[FlyingSquirrel]

Source for poll numbers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

-----

For these results, I used my previous polling data which, in polled Super Tuesday States, had these percentages:

All States: Clinton 41%, Obama 29%, Edwards 14%, Undecided/Other 16%
Red States: Clinton 40%, Obama 28%, Edwards 18%, Undecided/Other 16%
Blue States: Clinton 51%, Obama 25%, Edwards 11%, Undecided/Other 13%
Swing States: Clinton 40%, Obama 27%, Edwards 14%, Undecided/Other 19%

I then looked at polls done after Edwards had dropped out and noted the following percentages:

All States: Clinton 45%, Obama 42%, Undecided/Other 13%
Red States: Clinton 36%, Obama 49%, Undecided/Other 15%
Blue States: Clinton 50%, Obama 39%, Undecided/Other 12%
Swing States: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%, Undecided/Other 13%

So, the apparent change Post-Edwards was:

All States: Clinton +4%, Obama +13%
Red States: Clinton -4%, Obama +21%
Blue States: Clinton -1%, Obama +14%
Swing States: Clinton +6%, Obama +14%

Again, this is among Super Tuesday states that were polled.

I then used current polling numbers in the ST states which had been polled for my predictions. For the ones which had not been polled Post-Edwards, I added or subtracted from my latest numbers on Clinton and Obama based on the above change percentages. For states that had not been polled anytime recently, I used the average of current percentages for Clinton and Obama as follows: Red states, Clinton 36%, Obama 49%; Blue states, Clinton 50%, Obama 39%; Swing states, Clinton 46%, Obama 41%.

I got the following Percentages: (C=Clinton, O=Obama, U=Undecided/Other)

Alabama (52 Delegates): C 44, O 43, U 13 (Red)
Alaska (13 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Am. Samoa (3 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Arizona (56 Delegates): C 33, O 48, U 19 (Red)
Arkansas (35 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
California (370 Delegates): C 43, O 42, U 15 (Blue)
Colorado (55 Delegates): C 38, O 48, U 14 (Swing)
Connecticut (48 Delegates): C 46, O 42, U 13 (Swing)
Delaware (15 Delegates): C 44, O 42, U 14 (Blue)
Dems Abroad (7 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Georgia (87 Delegates): C 34, O 51, U 16 (Red)
Idaho (18 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Illinois (153 Delegates): C 40, O 51, U 9 (Swing)
Kansas (32 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Massachusetts (93 Delegates): C 57, O 33, U 10 (Blue)
Minnesota (72 Delegates): C 39, O 47, U 14 (Blue)
Missouri (72 Delegates): C 46, O 43, U 12 (Swing)
New Jersey (107 Delegates): C 46, O 40, U 14 (Swing)
New Mexico (26 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
New York (232 Delegates): C 54, O 38, U 8 (Blue)
North Dakota (13 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Red)
Oklahoma (38 Delegates): C 39, O 39, U 22 (Red)
Tennessee (68 Delegates): C 54, O 31, U 16 (Swing)
Utah (23 Delegates): C 29, O 53, U 18 (Red)

Delegate subtotal: Clinton 748, Obama 719, Uncommitted/Other 220

I then awarded Clinton and Obama each 25% of the Uncommitted delegates, and made the assumption that the remaining 50% would go to other candidates based on gaining 15% in some precincts. Obviously these assumptions are very arbitrary and do not take into account momentum, and probably overestimate the total number of delegates other candidates (including Edwards) may receive.

FINAL ST DELEGATE TOTAL: Clinton 803, Obama 774, Uncommitted/Other: 110

Using current Delegate and Superdelegate totals from the following source,

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

We get the following Post-ST Delegate Estimates: (Pledged; Super; Total)

Clinton 851; 197; 1,047
Obama 837; 106; 943

Uncommitted/Other: 12; 0; 122

P.S. If you're interested to see what is happening with Edwards' delegates and superdelegates, check the above site.

Total Delegates needed (without MI or FL): 2,025

Total Pledged Delegates still up for grabs: 1,374
Total Superdelegates still up for grabs: 493

(Above site says that 417 are undeclared. Since they also say 796 are available, I have not been able to figure out where the remaining 76 Superdelegates went. Perhaps someone can enlighten me)

[exchange77]

1. good one :-)

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Thanks and welcome to DU!

:hi:

I think the above polls are showing that Obama is really gaining the clear majority of Edwards voters, particularly in Red states.

There's a good chance we'll end up with a virtual tie between Clinton and Obama (even including Superdelegates) on Tuesday.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Wow, if it turns out like this, Obama may just win the nomination.

[The Delegates]

4. If this happens...

If that happens, Obama is going to win the nomination.

Also if Illinois ends up closer to 55-24 as one recent poll suggested, that will make the delegate count even closer...

Obama 780
Clinton 778

As for super delegates, don't put too much stock in them. They can change their minds and very often do. If Obama shows he is viable by tying the Clinton machine or coming that close to the Clinton machine, expect a large # of the undeclared to break for Obama.

As I've said repeatedly, Super Tuesday is going to come down to who wins their home state by the largest margin

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Not necessarily. In this case you shouldn't be counting out the

Superdelegates.

Look what's happening.

If my prediction were to come true, Clinton would have 851 Pledged Delegates to Obama's 837 after Super Tuesday.

If, after this, the current percentages of support for each continued to hold true with neither breaking out, well, here are the delegates up for grabs after ST:

Red states: 439
Blue states: 291
Swing states: 644

Current percentages for Clinton/Obama:

Red states: Clinton 36%, Obama 49%
Blue states: Clinton 50%, Obama 39%
Swing states: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%

For the rest of the race, Clinton picks up 600 and Obama picks up 593 under this scenario. There are then 182 other delegates, plus the 122 uncommitted above. That's 304. Suppose Obama gets 55%, Clinton gets 45%. That's 167 for Obama, 137 for Clinton.

Now without Superdelegates, you have the following totals:

Clinton 1588, Obama 1597

Superdelegates then are CRUCIAL. Clinton has the edge here.

I know a lot of my numbers are off but the overall effect is the same. Unless either candidate picks up decisive momentum after Super Tuesday, it may very well come down to 796 people choosing our nominee.

-----

But let's not forget Michigan and Florida. Under this scenario Clinton may successfully argue that her victories in those two states (regardless of the validity of the Michigan vote) should be the deciding factor that gives her the nomination.

[The Delegates]

7. I understand Superdelegates are crucial

But they are notorious for changing sides and there are so many undecided that it doesn't make sense to count them yet.

A lot of Superdelegates will move to Obama if he is close or ahead after ST. They're waiting to see if he is in fact viable.

[Turn CO Blue]

6. I don't think the supers from MI or FL get to vote either...

that could account for the missing ones. Just guessing though.

[msn]

8. Missing 76

The missing 76 are what are called "unpledged add-ons". These are superdelegates, but we don't know who they are yet. They are picked at each states convention, 1-5 per state, usually held April-June. We don't list them as undeclared because there are no names assigned to the slots yet. (Same reason we don't list future pledged delegates who have not been picked as undeclared). As they get picked (if the race is still being contested), we will add them to the lists.

And this is all without MI and FL.

Matt from 2008 Democratic Convention Watch.

[FlyingSquirrel]

17. Ah, thanks..

I had a feeling you'd show up to this thread. Your site is very good, I trust it more than anything else on the internet.

[Zynx]

9. I think that is a solid prediction. I endorse it.

[K Gardner]

10. Wow.. impressive. Bookmarking to check on Super Tues ! Good work.

[Perky]

11. I differ on some.. largely because it is not abiut statewide races... It is delegate race

Solid Wins for Clinton

Tennessee
Arkansas
Oklahoma

Marginal wins for Clinton

New York (she is leading in statewide polls...but the District Density and recent media endorsements in Metro New York area favor Obama in terms of Delegates.)
Toss-ups Where Clinton has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference

None


Not enough Data to make a call

Utah
Delaware
American Samoa
Democrats Abroad
Alaska


Toss-ups Where Obama has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference

New Jersey
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Missouri
Minnesota
Arizona
California


Marginal wins for Obama

Idaho
New Mexico
Colorado




Solid Wins for Obama

Georgia
Alabama
Illinois
Kansas
North Dakota

Overall, I think Obama is going to increase his Delegate lead among (voted delegates) because he is going win far bigger in Illinois the Clinton is going win in NY. The larger delegate count in NY is probably offset by the number of smaller sates that Hillary is not seriously contesting (Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota) Everything else pretty much washes out to a tie.

The real victory is going to be "momentum" because the pundtidiscussion is going to foces a lot on how mush Obama caught up.

[FlyingSquirrel]

20. A few notes on the above...

(1) You're right about momentum, that's what the discussion will focus on and so it will be a big deal for Obama.

(2) I'm not so sure that it's too late for Obama's momentum to make a real delegate difference. If Edwards had not dropped out I'd agree but the dynamic has shifted dramatically with enough time for it to make a difference. Having said that, however, you're probably right about Minnesota and Arizona - they're probably gonna be a lot closer than my above prediction showed them. Let's say Minnesota, Obama takes 49% to 44% and Arizona he wins 50% to 42%. That gives Obama maybe 2 less delegates in Minnesota and 2 less in Arizona.

(3) I see Alabama being more of a marginal win for Obama but that's a minor difference between me & you. Oklahoma, now that state is INTERESTING. Oklahoma has CONSISTENTLY been a good state for Edwards, anywhere from 24% to 29%. Yes, Clinton has been ahead in that state over Obama - but with so many of Edwards supporters breaking for Obama, he could battle her to almost a tie there. She'll probably still eke out a win though. Edwards will almost certainly still pick up a few delegates in OK.

Overall, we'll be looking at a very close race and still anyone's to win or lose; but the neck-and-neck race and Obama's momentum will be the big stories, that's for sure.

[UALRBSofL]

12. You didn't extrapolate

Edwards numbers on the ballots. :)

[catagory5]

13. um, I disagree

With Obama's recent slight upswing, I think it will be alot closer. I think he may even come out with more on ST. But, it's a long season. Texas is still comming, and then there is PENN. Those two are huge, and they are huge for Clinton!!!

[FlyingSquirrel]

16. Thing is, Texas is not till March and Pennsylvania is even later

That's a lot of time for Obama's momentum to pick up and make serious inroads into her poll numbers.

[thevoiceofreason]

23. Texas is very much in play now

Especially if the numbers I saw canvassing hold up.

[FlyingSquirrel]

18. I think Edwards will pick up some delegates

A lot less than if he had not dropped out, obviously, but somewhere between 50-80 perhaps. Enough to still swing a close contest at the Convention, which may be reason enough to still vote for him if you're an Edwards supporter. After all, who do you want to trust with the final decision if it comes down to that -- Edwards, or a few Superdelegates?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Appreciate your work. Are you going to update since O is ahead of C

now in California???

[FlyingSquirrel]

15. I averaged out three polls taken in California in last few days

If I add another one that just showed up on my radar, Clinton still leads by 1%. However momentum is important and it's entirely possible Obama will win the state. Since it's not winner-take-all however, I don't think that makes a really big difference in overall Delegate count. But of course these are all just guesses. We could see something completely unexpected happen on Tuesday. That's why it's so fun to watch.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

19. close!

[ShadowLiberal]

21. Great work

Great work on that prediction, I'd love to see it come true, I'm a very pessimistic person and an Obama supporter so I admit I'm not too confident about his chances to pull off a 'win' on ST, I dread a blow out happening instead and wiping out Obama.

But anyway, a few things I wanted to mention.

First about the super delegates, I can certainly agree that Obama's likely to win a bunch of them if he does well, he's been raking up a couple a day since SC it seems. On the other hand though, I think it's going to be harder to predict what some of them do. With this being the Internet age, I think a lot of the undecided super delegates are going to be under a lot of pressure to back the candidate with the most votes. I mean if Obama gets ahead in the number of pledged delegates, but Clinton suddenly wins all the undecided super delegates, enough to lock up the nomination, then people would be pissed, same with switching Obama and Clinton around in my example. People would be pissed off, and it would probably become a general election issue, " didn't even win the support of their own party, won because of dirty insider establishment tricks, do we really want a dirty insider as our next president".

Clinton already has a bunch of super delegates, and in politics it's rare for someone to endorse one person, then change their mind and take it back and endorse their opponent. I read an article a week or two ago about how black members of congress who endorsed Hillary are facing a bunch of pressure and backlash now, getting called opportunists who are only looking out for themselves, or who should be endorsing Obama simply because he's a viable black candidate and they're black. I don't think we'll be seeing those super delegates jumping ships, at least not until Obama nearly has the nomination locked up and they jump ships because it gets hopeless for Hillary and they want to end the primary sooner rather then later.

What really scares me to death now is how long this battle might be drawn out, I mean I can wait until the end of February to see someone lock up the nomination, March is stretching it for how long I'd like to see it go on, but at least those primaries are all early in the month (last one is the 11th). But after that if there's STILL no nomination then it's just going to be a nightmare having to wait over a month for the only primary in April, worse yet since it's the last big state, and a swing state (PA) it might be a tempting 'last stand' to someone in the nomination contest.

[Andrea]

22. Great work, FlyingSquirrel

I hope you do updates as time goes on.

[FlyingSquirrel]

24. *** UPDATE *** Obama overtakes Clinton in Pledged Delegates?

Apparent change, Post-Edwards:

All States: Clinton +3%, Obama +14%
Red States: Clinton -2%, Obama +21%
Blue States: Clinton -4%, Obama +16%
Swing States: Clinton +5%, Obama +16%

Among Super Tuesday states that were polled.

Percentages input for states that have not been polled anytime recently: Red states, Clinton 38%, Obama 49%; Blue states, Clinton 47%, Obama 41%; Swing states, Clinton 45%, Obama 43%.

I also added 6 points for Clinton and subtracted 6 from Obama in Arkansas to compensate for the fact that this is Clinton's home state (also puts the percentage reasonably closer to the December poll in that state). I left American Samoa and Democrats Abroad alone since many may have already voted and the number of delegates are low anyway.

I got the following Percentages: (C=Clinton, O=Obama, U=Undecided/Other)

Alabama (52 Delegates): C 44, O 43, U 13 (Red)
Alaska (13 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Am. Samoa (3 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Arizona (56 Delegates): C 45, O 41, U 15 (Red)
Arkansas (35 Delegates): C 53, O 35, U 12 (Swing)
California (370 Delegates): C 41, O 44, U 15 (Blue)
Colorado (55 Delegates): C 37, O 50, U 13 (Swing)
Connecticut (48 Delegates): C 46, O 44, U 10 (Swing)
Delaware (15 Delegates): C 44, O 42, U 14 (Blue)
Dems Abroad (7 Delegates): C 46, O 41, U 13 (Swing)
Georgia (87 Delegates): C 36, O 50, U 14 (Red)
Idaho (18 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Illinois (153 Delegates): C 40, O 51, U 9 (Swing)
Kansas (32 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Massachusetts (93 Delegates): C 51, O 40, U 10 (Blue)
Minnesota (72 Delegates): C 36, O 49, U 15 (Blue)
Missouri (72 Delegates): C 45, O 43, U 12 (Swing)
New Jersey (107 Delegates): C 46, O 40, U 14 (Swing)
New Mexico (26 Delegates): C 42, O 48, U 13 (Swing)
New York (232 Delegates): C 53, O 37, U 10 (Blue)
North Dakota (13 Delegates): C 38, O 49, U 13 (Red)
Oklahoma (38 Delegates): C 41, O 39, U 20 (Red)
Tennessee (68 Delegates): C 52, O 35, U 13 (Swing)
Utah (23 Delegates): C 29, O 53, U 18 (Red)

Delegate subtotal: Clinton 740, Obama 731, Uncommitted/Other 217

I then awarded Clinton and Obama each 25% of the Uncommitted delegates, and made the assumption that the remaining 50% would go to other candidates based on gaining 15% in some precincts. Obviously these assumptions are very arbitrary and do not take into account momentum, and probably overestimate the total number of delegates other candidates (including Edwards) may receive.

FINAL ST DELEGATE TOTAL: Clinton 794, Obama 785, Uncommitted/Other: 109

Using current Delegate and Superdelegate totals from the following source,

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com /

We get the following Post-ST Delegate Estimates: (Pledged; Super; Total)

Clinton 842; 200; 1,042
Obama 848; 107; 955

Uncommitted/Other: 12; 0; 121

Wow. Talk about momentum. If Obama takes the lead in Pledged Delegates on Super Tuesday, there will be endless talk about superdelegates and their (rightful?) place in the nominating process.

[The Delegates]

25. If Obama overtakes Clinton in PDs

Expect the remaining SDs to flock to Obama en masse.