Reading into polls basic details - is support soft?

[sunonmars]

Theres some stuff in these polls that should worry us as democrats as to soft support. So of it I'm not happy with as we are supposed to be the democratic party. I find it worrying in a lot of states, Obama does not carry the democratic base but is relying very heavily on independents. This is a really bad sign for the democrats as they cannot be counted on in a GE when they can go for a republican and frankly not carrying the democratic base is frightening. How do we feel as a party if our nominee could not carry the democratic base in the primaries.

Obama it seems is in big trouble if Independents do not come out for him and in states where independents vote in both R and D primaries, he could be in big trouble. McCain will strip independents away from him as he did in NH. Clinton has a huge registered Democratic base support and she has real strength there. Women are the key again.

Iraq is not a winning issue for Obama, the vote basically on Iraq splits basically between them.

If this race on Super Tuesday comes down to the Economy, Obama is in big trouble because Clinton is winning that argument again and again.


Alabama -

Pro-choice voters back Clinton. Pro-life voters back Obama. Most Registered Democrats back Clinton. Independents back Obama. Northern AL votes for Hillary Clinton. Southern AL votes for Barack Obama. Older voters back Clinton. Younger voters back Obama. White voters back Clinton. Black voters back Obama. Regular church goers back Obama. Less-regular church goers back Clinton.

Clear idealogical divide here!


New Jersey

There is a 40-point Gender Gap: Men back Obama 5:4 (55% to 45%). Women back Clinton 2:1 (66% to 33%). The contest is tied among voters under age 50. Clinton leads by 23 points among voters age 50+. Among voters who say the Economy is the most important issue, Clinton leads by 30 points (65% to 35%). Among voters who say Iraq is most important, Obama leads by 5.

Clinton's strength among registered Democrats overcomes Obama's support among Unaffiliated voters.

Clintons strengths here are the economy again Iraq not an issue. Clinton takes this by a mile the more women come out.


Missouri :

Obama leads among men. Clinton leads among women. Obama leads among young voters. Clinton leads among older voters. Clinton leads among whites. Obama leads among blacks. Clinton leads among registered Democrats. Obama leads among Independents. Clinton leads among the Democratic Primary voters who live in the more Republican parts of the state -- the Ozarks and North Central MO. Obama leads in greater Kansas City. The two are tied in greater St. Louis. When all is totaled, it's Clinton 48%, Obama 44% today. One in four likely voters say they may change their mind. The contest could go either way. Because of the way the Democratic Party awards delegates, neither will be shut-out in the Show Me.

Again Obama does not carry the democratic base.


Connecticut

Men back Obama. Women back Clinton.
Young voters back Obama. Older voters back Clinton.
Hispanics back Clinton. Moderates back Clinton. Liberals back Obama.
Voters focused on Health Care back Clinton. Voters focused on Iraq split.
Voters focused on the Economy split.

Effectively tied. Given that 29% of voters say they may yet change their mind, it's not just tied, it's fluid.
Obama leads in greater Hartford and New Haven. Clinton leads in the rest of the state.
Relative turnout of men vs women, young vs old, white vs black, will largely shape the outcome.

If more women turnout again, Connecticut is Clintons. Again Iraq does not hurt Hillary again.

I mean what does it all mean?