Lets say Obama is leading Hillary by a couple hundred delegates going into the convention

[Joe the Revelator]

He makes the rules at this point, so he decides if MI and FL get seated. How hard does Hillary fight to have those delegates seated, at the cost of crippling Obama going into the GE?

Same question with a 50 delegate lead.

[surfermaw]

1. Why worry, it never going to happen

[Joe the Revelator]

2. What does that mean?

[joshcryer]

9. It's not "several hundred" it's a 50-60 point spread at most. It's very unlikely to get that close.

And if it does guarantee that Superdelegates will start flipping on whomever, and you won't get one fucking vote, you're going into a brokered convention.

[Little Star]

29. Donna Brazile of CNN explained that this has happened in the

past. There are just some things that need to be done and then they will be allowed to seat those delegates. This is not the first time this scenario has happened, she said. (paraphrasing here)

[geek tragedy]

3. There is no legal case for getting those delegates seated.

None.

A court has already ruled on the matter.

Also, if Obama is up by a couple hundred, the gap will be too big for MI and FL to make the difference--Obama got delegates from FL and the Uncommitted from MI would be expected to vote with Obama.

[Joe the Revelator]

4. I understand that, but how hard would Hillary fight for it through threats and screams?

She's already promised that she will do everything she can to seat them.

[joshcryer]

7. That's a lie, she never said she'd break convention rules to seat them.

[geek tragedy]

8. Does she want a future in the party?

raising that kind of stink would mean an answer of 'no.'

[joshcryer]

21. Agreed, she's not insane, she'd probably push for a brokered convention at that point.

Oh, but at the end, guess what, they'd probably still be seated. :rofl:

[joshcryer]

5. This is the Obama supporters wet dream.

I have counted over half a dozen Obama supporters who want this to happen. Magic Rat was one of the more vocal ones about this being the "ideal scenario."

You know what happens? Brokered fucking convention, that's what happens.

And it's not a few hundred that matter, it's about 50-60, give or take. Basically, if Obama is ahead by a few hundred he *will* seat FL and MI in solidarity with party unity.

The only way he *won't* is if it changes the margins.

A 50-60 wide margin is extremely fucking unlikely. And then Superdelegates will probably start chiming in on that shit and you *will* get a brokered convention.

That's just too narrow to actually mean a nomination mandate. People simply won't like that.

But I find it amusing that the "ideal" scenario for people like Magic Rat and other Obama supporters is the very one that would devestate the convention beyond comprehension.

[rodeodance]

6. Nothing Unity about your posts such as this. You follow your Leader quite well.

[Joe the Revelator]

10. Its a question, Stop parroting posters who are much smarter then you.

[Cant trust em]

11. These delegates should be treated like they don't exist.

At this point with all of the acrimony that has gone back and forth no one should go digging for them.

[joshcryer]

14. First, Hillary never said she'd break convention rules. Second, Dean and Pelosi are on record...

...saying that they would likely be seated.

I went over this fucking weeks ago but people are too idiotic to actually understand the process, and the divide in this forum is so tight that people really and truly think the "other" candidate is satan incarnate.

[Cant trust em]

28. I'm not interested in what Dean and Pelosi have to say

this is my opinion. Whatever was decided months ago should stick. If that's not going to be the case then what was the point of signing agreements to take names off of the ballot and to not campaign?

[joshcryer]

30. Another person who doesn't understand the process.

You really need to read up on the DNC and what actually goes down at the convention. It's a democracy. Nothing is changing. The votes don't count toward the nomination. Not unless a vote is tabled to seat them, and they wouldn't be seated if Obama had the majority and it was contested (thus they would not "determine the nomination"). Please read up on how it works. No rules are being "changed." It's democracy, people make proposals, people vote on them, they are accepted or not. The delegates stand behind their candidate, so if a candidate with a majority of the votes choses to seat the delegates, *they will be seated*.

Why the fuck wouldn't you want MI and FL to be seated (not determine the nomination, *be seated*)? Party unity demands it.

[Cant trust em]

31. Can you send me a link?

I admit my ignorance. I dug around for a bit but couldn't find it.

Had there not been agreements/punishments for MI and FL moving up the primary date then I would love to include them for party unity. Unfortunately certain agreements were upheld by some and not others and we have a delegate that it out of whack because of that. Had all of the contest been on the up and up it would be great to have them be included in the usual manner. Maybe we're just dealing with convention terminology and that is the heart of our disagreement. I'll know after you send me the link.

[joshcryer]

32. You have a star by your name, can you search for my thread entitled:

Myths and Facts MI and FL delegates

Leave out the something and you'll find it.

It's a bastion of information on the process, with quite a few links explaining it (madflordian has the most comprehensive links about the DNC rules, I and other elaborate on them extensively).

The basic idea is this. You come to the DNC with your delegates. They vote however you want (think of it as an army of voter who do your every whim). Now MI and FL are not allowed to vote for squat. They don't count, they broke the rules. However, it's democracy. You can vote on anything (OK, within reason, you can't vote, probably, to make all the ladies strip down!). So someone tables a vote to "seat MI and FL." If they have the majority of the delegates (even by one), then they get seated. The key here is that Hillary cannot seat them unless she has a majority of the votes, which means she has the nomination already, anyway. And Obama would only not seat them if he literally had a little less than half the delegates and they both were at a dead heat, with a 60 point spread between them. (Because once they're seated they're like any other delegates and can vote for the nominee, changing the vote from Obama to Hillary!)

I'm sorry I didn't bookmark the links, but search for that post, if not I can do the digging for you. I'd rather have typed this long post than go back a good 1000 posts in the archives to find that post I made (no access to the search feature because I'm not a donator).

[Cant trust em]

33. I'm confused about this point

Fact: This is impossible, DNC rules forbid them from being counted toward the nomination. All parties agreed on this.

This doesn't apply if they delegates are voted to be seated, correct?

I'm going on my gut here, but since there was the pledge to not campaign in FL and to keep some names off of the ballot in MI then we have a tainted delegate count. Delegates that might have gone to Obama went to Clinton since he didn't have his name on the ballot in MI. That being the case it seems like any use of them to decide the nomination is based on an unfair allocation of delegates.

I feel like I'm still missing something of the equation though.

[themaguffin]

12. All states agreed to the rules. Period.

[joshcryer]

16. Yes, and both Hillary and Obama are on record with regards to seating FL and MI.

And neither of them, especially Hillary, have *ever* suggested breaking *any* rules of the convention.

[themaguffin]

18. All of the states agreed, so any talk of changing is pointless

[joshcryer]

20. You really have no idea what you are talking about. Once at the DNC any candidate can propose a vote

...and the one with the most votes will likely propose seating MI and FL for party unity. The only candidate who would not do this is Obama, if this highly unlikely scenario of a 50-60 point spread actually happens.

[themaguffin]

22. Yes I do. Next time read first. I didn't say what candidates can or can't do

As that is IRRELEVANT.

The rules were made - the elections are not valid. People are not going to vote in normal patterns (normal numbers) for what is essentially a pre season game.

Now do you get it?

[joshcryer]

23. Again, you don't know what you're talking about. Seating the delegates is the most likely scenario.

It is completely within the rules of the DNC. Just because they "don't count" doesn't mean they "won't be seated." It just means *they don't count toward convention votes until they are seated*. The likely scenario is that either Obama or Hillary will seat them. The scenario proposed by the OP and by so many Obama supporters as the "ideal scenario," would have Obama failing to seat them.

And I guarantee you a brokered convention would be the result.

[themaguffin]

25. Apparently you can't read

[joshcryer]

26. Not sure what I'm missing. No one is proposing changing any rules.

[featherman]

13. I think this thing will be worked out by the DNC prior to that

Here is a link that covers the likely resolution. People have to make buy airline tickets and plans, after all

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4316924&mesg_id=4316924

[joshcryer]

19. If it's a 50-60 point spread, neither candidate has a real mandate; we get a brokered convention.

[Joe the Revelator]

34. Maybe not. a 50 point spread is still a spread, which mean somebody won.

[elixir]

15. From what I've heard on DU, the nominee can seat the FL and MI delegates, right?

[joshcryer]

17. You come to the convention with your delegates, the one with the most can, yes.

They do not need a total / 2 + 1 majority to do it. They only need a one vote majority to seat those states.

Mind you, FL and MI delegates *do not count toward the seating of themselves*. But once seated then they can make their nomination.

[papau]

24. beat me to it - the convention decides on its rules at the convention

[joshcryer]

27. There seem to be maybe 6 of us who understand the process, and I personally...

...am not *that* freaking smart about this whole thing. But seriously, in a forum where at least 200-300 people post daily only a few of us know what the fuck is actually happening at the DNC with regards to these delegates.