New Tennessee poll: Clinton 59, Obama 26

[NJSecularist]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/InsiderAdvantage_MajorityOpinionTNDEMpoll.html

This state looks like it will be a slaughter for Hillary's camp. If I were Obama, I'd be heading to Tennessee immediately.

[KittyWampus]

1. damn, that's lopsided. How many delegates are at stake? There isn't a lot of time left

so I'd imagine Obama camp will have to cut their loses.

[NJSecularist]

3. 85 delegates at stake

So it's not an inconsequential state at all. Especially at this present margin of victory.

[Rock_Garden]

2. Hugh lead!

[book_worm]

4. Yep, you're right it's looking real good for Clinton in TN

[angie_love]

5. Q?

Was that supposed to be an Obama leaning state?

[sunonmars]

6. Thats shot up massively within 2 days

Jesus

Florida effect?

[goldcanyonaz]

8. Or, snub effect? Heard a herd of woman at the coffee shop screaming about this, this a.m.

Herd = 12 of them. Just sitting there talking, and LOUD too.

[sunonmars]

13. That poll has Clinton go up 25% in a week

[sunonmars]

20. you may be right, i've heard it from friends too, they called him pig ignorant

[KittyWampus]

11. could be an outlier but who knows? I'm not an avid poll fan except for exit polls

[cobalt1999]

7. Why head there?

It's a lost cause. He should just write it off and go to California & NY.

[Occam Bandage]

9. Why would he head for a lost cause?

[cobalt1999]

12. Great minds think alike.

[NJSecularist]

14. There are 85 delegates at stake

And just a week ago her lead was only 12 points. It's not exactly a state he should ignore, there are too many delegates at stake.

[sunonmars]

10. This is the first poll taken after Florida, right?

If Clinton has shot up 25% in a state after Florida, Obama may be in trouble.

[Renew Deal]

15. There's something funky about those numbers.

It says that Obama gets 18% of whites and loses blacks by 2 points. It also says that Obama loses 18-29 80-14. That's way off.

[Sir Jeffrey]

16. HRC gets 80.6% of 18-29 year olds?

Are we sure this poll is weighted properly?

I am not saying this poll is wrong, but it seems like these numbers are not in line with the results of IA, NH, NV, and SC. Obama had 57% of 17-29 in IA, 60 % of 18-24 in NH and split evenly with HRC with 25-29, 59% of 18-29 in NV, and 67% of 18-29 in SC. Obama even got a split with HRC in Florida and he didn't even campaign there.

Is TN really that far out of whack with the rest of the country?

[Renew Deal]

17. And wins blacks

There's something wrong with that poll.

[sunonmars]

18. but according to Obama supporters there's no racial divide, so why not

[MadBadger]

19. Sure there's a racial divide in the South

[Renew Deal]

23. The poll shouldn't defy reality

There's somethings we know, and Obama does better than Hillary with blacks. he's been getting around 70%.

[Sir Jeffrey]

22. Yeah and I just noticed this too...

look at the top of the page linked by the OP. This "Tennessee" poll actually is posted as "Democratic South Carolina Poll". WTF? Is this a polling outfit of Kindergartners?

[Kittycat]

21. What do other polls say? Any info yet?

[sidwill]

24. Isn't Real Clear politics a Wingnut site?

Whenever I get into a pissing contest with my right wing buddies they send me links to "Real Clear Politics" to support their cause.

So is Real clear really a Winger site?

[Sir Jeffrey]

25. Real Clear just links to various polls...

I've been using it since 2004 and I like it. I don't think they are partisan.

The only thing I don't like is that they combine polls and give an average weight, which skews results if you have a poorly conducted poll (like the OP's poll I suspect). Real Clear also takes polls from lesser known/less reputable outfits and weighs them with more "professional" polls like Zogby, Rasmussen, and Gallup, so you get outliers affecting the "average poll" numbers. All it takes is one shitty poll to skew results.

[Kittycat]

26. Thank you for elaborating.

I think I'll wait for one of the big names to release info... And then still remain cautiously optimistic. Polls are crazy these days.