Obama bounces...

[mckeown1128]

California Democratic Primary Rasmussen Clinton 43, Obama 40, Edwards 9 Clinton +3

Massachusetts Democratic Primary Rasmussen Clinton 43, Obama 37, Edwards 11 Clinton +6

Connecticut Democratic Primary Rasmussen Clinton 40, Obama 40, Edwards 11 Tie


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html


All he needs is a good debate performance tonight and and Edwards endorsement and we will be on to 8 great years of Obama/Edwards.

[Meshuga]

1. Obama can get a nice number of delegates on Tuesday

It will be nice if he campaigns in NY to steal a nice chunk from Clinton's home state.

I wonder how he is going to do in states like New Jersey where independents can vote in the primaries.

But it is nice to see Obama grow in the polls. If he survives on Tuesday (at least splitting the delegate count) his chances are good.

[GalleryGod]

2. New Jersey has been "bagged for Hillary" since last June

Governor Corzine....apparently has been promised Sec'y of the Treasury, according to my impeccable guys inside the Governors Office (we go back to the Brendan Byrne era, 1973-81)

[moobu2]

3. Barack performs horribly in live debates

He’s much better at reading speeches written for him.

Hillary will mop the floor with his phony ass in any live debate because she cares more about the issues and has actually taken he time and effort to know what the issues are.

[UALRBSofL]

4. I hope Obama is in that "attack Mode" mentality

And Hillary stays on point and talks issues and stresses change from Bush. :)

[Dogmudgeon]

5. Don't count on any bounces

(Partisan Mode = OFF)
(Wonk Mode = ON)

Obama needs more than bounces and momentum -- he needs a solid base of support. His base is less than half of his recent "converts". This is one of the things Team Obama needs to work on. Likewise, 40% of Edwards' supporters are going for Hillary, 25% for Obama, and 35% are undecided. (I think that was in Rasmussen yesterday, but I'm not sure; Keith Olbermann also mentioned it.)

Then, there is the problem of Obama's poor debating skills. Tonight is the last debate, but if he wants to "engage" Hillary, he is going to have to learn to not shoot from the hip. Otherwise, Hillary will have him roped and tied within days. Team Clinton's total silence on Uncle Teddy is also unnerving. If Obama's supporters aren't sweating bullets, they would be advised to start now.

The public is also picking up on Obama and his surrogates' poor anger management. As memories fade while Bill is in the doghouse, Obama is the one who is at risk for blunders. A few more "handshakes" and it moves from a non-issue to "character counts", and they won't be able to tar Hillary with that brush any more.

Bottom line: Captain Obama needs to carefully navigate the S.S. Hope-and-Unity through some treacherous shoals. He and his partisans have their work cut out for them.

--p!