Super Tuesday Turnout Super Fun!

[markses]

OK - So I've been doing these turnout thread - comparing 1992 or 2000 with 2004 - for the last few big primary nights. No respect. Nobody cares. Woe is me. Tonight, I've given up finishing Plato's Laws (no small friggin' feat, if I say so), and I've also got some web pages to code, just so I can do this turnout thing for you pack of ungrateful hyenas. I'm damn sure nobody reads these threads, so, yes, I'll insult you at my leisure. True, it usually takes me a few beers and a rusty nail to start hookin' off on you muh-fuckahs on DU, but the way y'all have ignored my tedious turnout threads has been tore up, from the muhfuckin' floor up, gnaw mean?

All standard disclaimers about date of primaries in each period and location in general trajectory of campaigns apply, as per usual.

In any case, the BIG TURNOUT STORIES tonight:

1) Ohio - GOP sweating bullets in Ohio (rather than shooting them at college students) as the state Dems mobilize past 1992 levels, to wizzit:

OHIO 1992

Clinton, William J. 638,347
Brown, Edmund G. 197,449
Tsongas, Paul E. 110,773
Stokes, Louis 29,983
Harkin, Tom 25,395
Kerrey, Bob 22,976
Larouche, Lyndon H. Jr. 17,412
Major Candidate Total Vote 1,042,335

OHIO 2004

99% reporting

Kerry 607,346
Edwards 400,006
Kucinich 105,532
Dean 29,538
Total 1,142,422

GEORGIA 1992

Clinton, William J. 259,907
Tsongas, Paul E. 109,148
Brown, Edmund G. 36,808
Kerrey, Bob 22,033
Uncommitted 17,256
Harkin, Tom 9,479
Total Vote 454,631

GEORGIA 2004

Kerry 274,130
Edwards 248,512
Sharpton 36,411
Dean 10,638
Kucinich 7,070
Total Vote 576,761

Many of the other states were lower than 1992 - Maryland stands out as quite a bit lower. But, as my man the EL sez, we goin back to Cally. Initial reports from the Secretary of State predicted low turnout in California, and several right wing media flacks have been piping this about as evidence that Bushie will take CA in '04 (he will, of course, lose by over a million votes, like he did last time, but I suppose even fools and criminals should be allowed fantasies). Here's where CA stands now:

CALIFORNIA 1992
Clinton, William J. 1,359,112
Brown, Edmund G. 1,150,460
Tsongas, Paul E. 212,522
McCarthy, Eugene J. 60,635
Kerrey, Bob 33,935
Agran, Lawrence A. 24,784
Larouche, Lyndon H. Jr. 21,971
Other/Unknown 190
Major Candidate Total Vote 2,863,609

CALIFORNIA 2004

28 PERCENT OF PRECINCTS REPORTING

Kerry 691,133
Edwards 194,857
Dean 49,642
Kucinich 42,412
Sharpton 14,502
Total 992546

I project the vote total in CA to surpass 3,000,000 votes easily. It may even get as high as 3,400,000. (Yes, of course there are problems with projecting from the number of precincts alone, but it's been working pretty good for me all night; I predicted Ohio's total vote to within a thousand when it was only at 20%!)

Is Bush goin back to Cally? I don't think so.

[RummyTheDummy]

1. Great post

Very interesting analysis. I suspected turnout was way up this cycle and your numbers seem to indicate that.

[Mick Knox]

2. Well.. at least your numbers were in English..

Great job! I was worrying about Cali a little cuz of the pundits.. but I think you got it dead on.

[theorist]

3. These are important posts in terms of public record.

When will the electronic voting results be in? I believe I heard Thom Hartman mention that during the 2002 midterm elections, many news agencies did not report exit poll results when it was realized that they didn't match up with the electronic tallies. Comments?

[Kanary]

6. I'm interested in that.

I think this deserves a thread of it's own, as there are so few replies to info like this.

I'd appreciate knowing more about it.

Thanks..

Kanary

Another Delusional Diehard for Dennis!!

Kucinich 2004!

[VolcanoJen]

4. I'm SO PROUD of Buckeyes - Way to Get out the Vote!!!

All said, Ohio Democrats turned out in far greater numbers than comparably populated states.

My lengthy breakdown here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x421379#425329

;-)

[nofurylike]

5. thank you for this excellent news and all your work, markses! n/t

[ShaneGR]

7. Good post, the Ohio # is huge

100,000 votes in Ohio is enormous. To think the SOS office (Repug) predicted less than 40% turnout. In a primary that was pretty much already decided, Ohio Dems turned out in FORCE.