But wait a minute - what about Nevada whites?

[Adelante]

Obama won Iowa by a decisive margin. And, as Iowa is 93% white, it should come as no surprise that he won white voters by 6 points. Clinton won white women in New Hampshire; Obama won white men; and, as more women voted than men, Clinton won the state. But both of these states indicate that Obama can win sufficient numbers of white voters.

But wait a minute - what about Nevada? Clinton beat Obama by 18 points among whites. She even won white men by 6 points. Doesn’t that indicate that the dynamic of the race has changed, that Obama has perhaps been marginalized as the “black candidate?”

Well…not so fast.

Clinton won white voters statewide. Of this there is no doubt. But we might ask which white voters did she win? The Nevada entrance poll clearly indicates that she won white voters in and around Las Vegas - but that she and Obama at least split them outside Vegas:



These results are really intriguing. Consider that, according to the Census Bureau’s 2006 population estimate, Clark County (where Vegas is) is home to about 93% of the state’s African American population. So, if Obama won Reno and split the rural counties, he must have been strong among white voters outside Vegas. There are simply not enough African American voters outside Clark County for Obama to do so well having lost white voters.

Let’s expand on this. Unfortunately, the Nevada Democratic Party does not release raw vote totals. But we can look at delegates, which are a sufficiently unbiased estimate of how the votes went in each county. The following table reviews counties in Nevada according to: the percentage difference in delegates between Obama and Clinton, the percentage of whites, and the estimated population from 2006.



Obviously we cannot know the exact votes per county. These are delegate totals, not raw vote totals. Above all, we do not have breakdowns of vote by race per county. Nevertheless, this should make it clear that the entrance poll was certainly on to something. Obama won Reno (Washoe County), which is largely white. He won Carson City, which is largely white. And he did very well in the rural counties, which are also white.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/demography_and_the_democratic.html

[frogcycle]

1. Can we just STOP with the racial analyses?

Sure, many people consider it in forming opinions about people. But they also consider body language, and some probably consider horoscopes. Stop the crap and let them focus on their relative merits and let the country TRY to determine who the hell they really are, for cripes sakes!

Does analysis like this add anything to forecasting winners? Quite possibly. But this is not weather forecasting, it is CHOOSING, and all this number crunching is exactly how the pollsters and MSM distract everyone from what matters.

[Adelante]

2. Don't tell me what to do

Thanks :hi:

[stray cat]

3. so clearly whites are irrelevant and easily swayed too (sarcasm in case its missed)