The next 9 days Campaigning - How will they do it

[sunonmars]

Ok, the first lot is over so where do they go from here, Conratulations to Senator Obama on his victory, it was hard fought, i may not agree with a lot of things but congratulations.

Firstly the media pointed out something last night i had forgotten about is a strategic nightmare for the candidates.

How do you seriously cover 24 states in really is what only 9 days campaigning.

So really if you are honest, 2 states every day means 18 states and 6 you cant cover, what do you do.

CNN pointed out last night that here Senator Clinton gets a huge advantage here in the Super Tuesday Campaign, in fact she has already started this week in 3 states. Her other main benefit is Pres.Clinton and Chelsea to cover a lot of states for her that she otherwise can't get too because of time issues. They also pointed out the Super Tuesday because of its sheer size this year may come down to a name recognition in a lot of states due to its nightmare travel ideas. So really Clinton will get 18 days worth of campaigning compared to Obama's 9 because there are 2 hi profile Clintons here.

Hillary can spend full days in delegate rich states locking them in, while Bill carries of on smaller states and Hillary does smaller state visits to back up his warming up visits earlier.

Senator Obama doesnt have that luxury, he has to pick very very carefully where he campaigns. He can't be everywhere at once He wont be able to give that long time campaign talk with people like he was able to in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina and will rely on state campaigners to do the work for him. Michelle Obama will not carry any real weight in camapigning for Super Tuesday like Bill Clinton can. Does Obama go for the southern states, leaving chance to the larger states? Do he go where states are close and he might win them?

Does Hillary go into the heart of Illinois and campaign there and the same with Obama, does he do that in NY.? I think they should, absolutely.

I also fully expect Clinton to push hard up until Tuesday 29th night about the importance of Florida, you might not like it but its a shrewd move, making the people look at Florida's results on Tuesday night where she is expected to clean up handily, her build up of early votes apparently is enormous.
Its also a good mood to diffuse any momentum from South Carolina by focusing attention on Florida's stripping of rights to voters.

Any other thoughts guys?

[StevieM]

1. Obama will do it the best possible way--with the backing of the biased media (eom)

x

[Egnever]

2. I think you lay it out rather well

The one caveat i would throw in though is that the national polls have been narrowing. With this big win by obama tonight he gets at least till tuesday of free press. At that point we get the Florida result. Almost certainly to come down in Hillary's favor.

I think florida has the potential to become our decider again. A huge win there for her despite the fact that it doesn't really count, could stop Obamas mo dead in its tracks . it all depends on how seriously the media takes that win.

It is an impossible task they are faced with now and name recognition will play a big factor come super tues. I honestly don't know how Obama will overcome it. Today sure helps though :)

[Drunken Irishman]

3. The big thing coming out of Tuesday will be the Republican Florida primary.

That will most likely trump anything about the Democrats.

[sandnsea]

4. Obama's schedule

AL, DC, KC

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

I imagine he'll get his internal polling and see how his surrogates are doing and go from there. Much like the others.

[Dogmudgeon]

5. Obama's problem in Clinton strongholds

Okay ... I am putting my HRC partisanship away for the time being. Let's talk strategy from an objective point of view. (And Obama supporters should take comfort in knowing, if they already don't, that my tongue will be licking envelopes for Barack if he wins. There has never been any doubt of my support in my mind.)

Obama has campaigned in areas that have been in a state of flux for Democrats. Nevada especially has undergone tremendous changes in just the last decade. New Hampshire, similar. And South Carolina's Democrats have only been newly-energized -- in large part thanks to Obama's efforts.

But the Clinton strongholds have weathered through 15 years of criticism, rout, and loss. They are not going to be easy coconuts for Obama to crack to reach the milk. He is going to have to present an agenda that is clearly better than HRC. As yet, he has been considerably less precise in laying out his agenda than Hillary, John, or even most of the Republicans. The hortatory approach has been powerful, but these are different kinds of voters.

Most of the big, delegate-rich states are still clearly in Clinton's camp. Barack has nine days to make his case and convince a large chunk of the Hillary supporters to vote for him. Instead of holding their noses, long-time Clintonians will have to grit their teeth. It as a fundamentally different experience to trade long-time loyalty to excellence for a risky choice that could have a far better payoff -- or end in grief.

And Obama's surrogates will not be able to rely on "Hillary is a liar" and similar tropes we have seen here on DU. In newly-Democratic areas, that will work fine (provided it's not used as a all-purpose cudgel). In places that have supported Hillary for years, it will result in an instant backlash. By the same token, if Hillary sticks her foot in her mouth again (ditto for Bill), the damage will be much longer-lasting among the younger voters who have never been laughed at by the Republicans at work. Hillary has a little more leeway to criticize Obama, but she risks alienating nearly all of the newer voters. I strongly suspect that there will be two or three smallish skirmishes in the next five days, but angelic behavior thereafter. The probability of who-starts-what runs about 50/50, though I am confident that Team O will blame Hillary and Team C will blame Obama.

Speaking of Bill, I don't think he will be nearly as critical to Super Tuesday. The long-term Clinton strongholds are now focused on a NEW Clinton. They assume that Bill will be at her side, but the cynical "co-president" accusation is not flying among voters who remember the 1990s. As I am one of those voters, I can tell you that, at least in my area, we assume Hillary will assign Bill as an ambassador sans portfolio to keep him busy and out of the way. We also assume Hillary is considerably more liberal than Bill was. That topic, though, can be argued over in another thread.

Nationally and party-wide, both approaches are badly needed, but different areas hunger and thirst for different kinds of agendas. And that will present Obama his biggest strategic difficulty. He has to be able to win over those groups who have been supportive of the Clintons through thick and thin.

Obama supporters make the case that South Carolina saw an enormous turnout of previously disaffected voters who wanted to vote for BHO. But this has been the overall trend so far. We've seen it in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. How much of this turnout is Obama's OR Hillary's is anyone's guess. Then, too, John Edwards is looking better with each passing day.

So Hillary is going to solidify her long-time support -- to "Obama-proof" her partisans. She will also be seeking to convince the new, uncommitted voters. And a few Obama supporters will probably switch over as well, but that trend has been with BHO (and JRE).

What would I do if I was Barack Obama? I'd spend the next 9 days talking about policy and weaving that, and the philosophy of hope, into an unbroken cable. I would also make it a point to not complain about Hillary whatsoever, since the biggest mistake his camp has made has been to portray Hillary as a female version of Zod, Xenu, and Satan, combined in the person of a middle-aged woman. An evil superhero, if you will. It makes him look like a tender lamb among wolves.

Policy talk and an air of invulnerability will get him much further from now on.

That is how I am seeing it. Sure, I could be wrong. So, what are you seeing from your vantage point? Statistically, as of right now, Hillary has the advantage. Because of yesterday's results in SC, that number could change dramatically in the next 72 hours. And it's 216 hours and 15 minutes until the polls start to open on Super Tuesday.

Nine days. The life of a fruitfly is an eternity in politics.

--p!

[sunonmars]

6. Thanks pidgewigeon