SUSA: Can Edwards come in second in SC? maybe, maybe not

[book_worm]

Could John Edwards finish ahead of Hillary Clinton on Saturday?

It depends how many Independents and how many Republicans show up to dilute the core Democratic vote that at present goes 5:3 for Obama over Clinton, and 5:2 for Obama over Edwards.

Could what SurveyUSA sees here be a pollster mirage? Perhaps. Competing pollsters show the spread between 2nd place Clinton and 3rd place Edwards differently. At this hour.

Zogby (today, 1/24/08) has Clinton 5 points ahead of Edwards.
Clemson University (today, 1/24/08) has Clinton 3 points ahead of Edwards.
Rasmussen (today, 1/24/08) has Clinton 11 points ahead of Edwards.
Mason-Dixon (today, 1/24/08) has Clinton 11 points ahead of Edwards.
SurveyUSA (today, 1/24/08) has Clinton 7 ahead of Edwards.
There are many possibilities. Here are several:

There is a genuine white backlash to the racial rhetoric in South Carolina. Some whites, possibly white males, may be newly motivated to vote for the white male Democrat in a way they were not a few weeks ago. In this scenario, Edwards’ surge is real. He may challenge for 2nd place.
John Edwards’ message has newfound appeal to a broad coalition of South Carolina voters. Managing to stay largely above the fray in the contentious Democratic debate, Edwards has managed to appear Presidential, and voters of all registrations are genuinely moving to his side. Again in this scenario, the surge is real and Edwards has momentum.
Everyone in South Carolina is fed up with the Clinton-Obama bickering, having nothing uniquely to do with race or with John Edwards. In this scenario, voters are turning to Edwards to punish Clinton and Obama more than out of genuine regard for Edwards. Even if this is the explanation, the Edwards uptick would be real.
Or, there is “noise” in SurveyUSA’s poll, and in the polls from others, triggered by the week-long hiatus between Republican and Democratic voting. While Edwards has a strong group of core supporters in South Carolina and elsewhere, the number of Independents and Republicans who show up in SurveyUSA’s likely voter pool is overstated, and Clinton will finish comfortably ahead of Edwards.
We’ll know the Primary results late on Saturday

www.surveyusa.com

Survey USA has SC as Obama 45% Clinton 29% and Edwards 22%