Clinton closing in on Obama in SC? Only 8pts difference.

[Skip Intro]

Even Zomby said things are in flux in SC...


http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080124_SC_Dem_McClatchy_MSNBC_Mason-Dixon.pdf

[goldcanyonaz]

1. w00t! *faints*

:woohoo:

[joeybee12]

2. Interesting Denver Post story about Hilary and Bill's strategy

for South carolina...Bill is throwing Obama off message, and as long as they do that, he can only rail againt Hilary and not make his case for people voting for him. The article thought it was a very effective strategy.

[elixir2]

3. Great news, keep going Hill!

[calmblueocean]

4. I'm no Clinton supporter, but she's definitely narrowing the gap.

Ironically, a strong showing there works against the racialization of the campaign that so many people have said was Hill's strategy. Interesting.

[JackORoses]

24. Obama led by 9 in the last Mason-Dixon poll, no big change really

Don't worry. Hillary's not narrowing anything.

[jefferson_dem]

5. She's one point closer than a week ago in the same poll. I guess you can consider that progress.

It was Obama 40, Hillary 31, Edwards 13. Edwards is the big mover, picking up six points.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080117_Dem_Primary_Poll_1-08_Mason-Dixon.pdf

That being said, she's the front-runner. I hope Obama can keep it close.

[MadBadger]

6. In that Poll, Obama was up 9 last week. In Zogby's Poll, on one day, John pulled ahead of Hillary

[joshcryer]

7. 15% undecided women.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Those who live by polls, die by 'em!

[moobu2]

9. Clinton’s SC strategy is brilliant

[DemCam]

29. What a roller-coaster thread..like Hollywood?nobodyknowsnada

[robbedvoter]

10. As I predicted this morning - anything can happen in SC! here's my prediction

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4180669
SC is wide open - for the 3 candidates
Polls are bogus as they fail to account for 2 things:
1. how many women will show for Hillary
2. how many GOPers will show for Obama (the "Bush OK-ed his spiritual adviser endorsing Obama was directive to go Obama rather than Edwards like they did in the past)

[Cameron27]

11. Wow,

that's terrific, but I'm not counting on anything.

K&R

[Teaser]

12. doubt it

Given the number of polls, I'm not surprised the variance in estimates.

[Windy]

18. You are right to doubt this...look at my post further down. n/t

[book_worm]

13. Zogby says things are influx in SC because of Edwards moving up and Hillary moving down

Zogby has Obama up by 15 over Hillary
Rasmussen has Obama up by 15 over Hillary
Survey USA has Obama up by 16 over Hillary

and in each poll John Edwards is moving up and Hillary down. All were released today.

[Windy]

14. other polls very different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/south_carolina-primary.html

Frankly, I believe your information to be completely fraudulent:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/south-carolina.html

[bigdarryl]

19. who cares about other polls zogby is the MAN

[Windy]

15. Your "poll" is completely fraudulent. Wow, you clinton supporters will stop at nothing

Frankly, I believe your information to be completely fraudulent:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/south-carolina.html

All major poll results listed...Obama up and Edwards moving up...Hillary, not doing as well as the others...

How's bill's little game working out for ya!

[Skip Intro]

21. RCP has it linked, I mean, which poll there is fraudulent and which is accurate?

I'm not vouching for any of them, but zomby did say earlier today that Obama's lead over Clinton was falling...

[MadBadger]

22. Actually, his numbers show that Obama is dropping, Clinton is collapsing, and Edwards is surging

On one day, Obama had 37, Clinton had 19, and Edwards had 27 I believe.

[Skip Intro]

25. His commentary on SC: "change appears to be in the air here..."

No, he's not singing Hillary's praises, but Obama is falling. The numbers show Obama down four, Clinton down one, and Edwards up four.

------------------------------

Pollster John Zogby: “The Democratic race in South Carolina is reminding me now of the beginning of the old Buffalo Springfield song: “There’s something happening here/What it is ain’t exactly clear.”

“Obama maintains a 15-point lead, but he has dipped under 40%, losing ground, including a few points among African Americans. And nearly one in five African Americans is now undecided with just three days to go until the election. Still, his is a commanding lead with just three days to go.

“Edwards, meanwhile, has had his second good day since the Monday night CNN debate, in which he delivered a strong performance. He hit 19% support on Tuesday alone and then 27% support on Wednesday alone. And, on Wednesday alone, he pulled ahead of Clinton overall. He has pulled ahead among whites. Could he pull ahead of Clinton and finish in second place? Even with a strong showing here, where does he go next to take advantage of the momentum?

“Clinton has slipped slightly, and is at a point where you could wonder what implications a third place showing here could have for her heading into the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5. She has left the state to campaign elsewhere, leaving her husband behind to keep up appearances in South Carolina.

“Overall, Obama maintains the advantage, but change appears to be in the air here – there are a lot of undecideds for this late stage in the contest - and we are watching developments closely.”

[MadBadger]

26. And On Wednesday, Hillary collaspsed to 19 points and Edwards surged to 27

Obama fell 2 points to 37.

[FogerRox]

32. I read what Zogby posted, Its nice to know SOMEONE actually read the post besides me.

[Unsane]

16. You found the one poll where Hillary is losing by less than double-digits. Congratulations.

[Pirate Smile]

17. Obama will be lucky to win. It should be very close.

:)

[agdlp]

20. Romney go after HRC in debate, not up to speed with her issues

Romney(leading in SC right now) went after Clinton in the debate, among other things saying

1) she will raise taxes
2) she will sosialice sosial security
3) she would witdraw the troops from Iraque wihtout considering the consequenses..


1)
" want to restore the tax rates that we had in the '90s," said the New York Democrat and former first lady. "That means raising taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. I want to keep the middle-class tax cuts."

2) If you have a plan you like, you keep it. If you want to change plans or aren't currently covered, you can choose from dozens of the same plans available to members of Congress, or you can opt into a public plan option like Medicare. And working families will get tax credits to help pay their premiums

3)As president, Hillary would focus American aid efforts during our redeployment on stabilizing Iraq, not propping up the Iraqi government. She would direct aid to the entities -- whether governmental or non-governmental -- most likely to get it into the hands of the Iraqi people. She would also support the appointment of a high level U.N. representative -- similar to those appointed in Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Kosovo -- to help broker peace among the parties in Iraq.

A New Intensive Diplomatic Initiative in the Region. In her first days in office, Hillary would convene a regional stabilization group composed of key allies, other global powers, and all of the states bordering Iraq. The- mission of this group would be to develop and implement a strategy to create a stable Iraq. It would have three specific goals:

Non-interference. Working with the U.N. representative, the group would work to convince Iraq's neighbors to refrain from getting involved in the civil war.
Mediation. The group would attempt to mediate among the different sectarian groups in Iraq with the goal of attaining compromises on fundamental points of disputes.
Reconstruction funding. The members of the group would hold themselves and other countries to their past pledges to provide funding to Iraq and will encourage additional contributions to meet Iraq's extensive needs.
As our forces redeploy out of Iraq, Hillary would also organize a multi-billion dollar international effort -- funded by a wide range of donor states -- under the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to address the needs of Iraqi refugees. And as we replace military force with diplomacy and global leadership, Hillary will not lose sight of our very real strategic interests in the region. She would devote the resources we need to fight terrorism and will order specialized units to engage in narrow and targeted operations against al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in the region.
----

I do think she will do fine against Romney in the general election.

And also, look at the racial devide on the votes..some of the latest polls only giving Obama around 10 % of the "white" votes..its weird..

[jackson_dem]

23. I just looked at that poll. It estimates 13% more blacks will vote than whites

If there is a closer split, given Obama being at 10% with whites and 8% with white women, he could be "upset" on Saturday. The plot thickens. :)

[Skip Intro]

27. Yes, they had the AA vote at fifty five per cent. A real likelihood exists that the AA vote will be

a smaller percentage. All the talk up until now has been that the AA vote would be close to half the vote.

It is interesting. If Hillary pulls off an upset here on Sat, it's pretty much over (tho I think that'll be case Tuesday after next anyway...).

[MadBadger]

28. Dont be surprised if this race brings out the AA vote in full force.

[Skip Intro]

30. Didn't work that great for him in Nevada...

losing the Latino vote by a wide margin despite ads on the radio telling Latinos that Clinton didn't respect them...

[MadBadger]

31. SC is a completely different game than Nevada

I think the black community will be energized and represent about 55 percent of the vote. I also think that Obama will get at least 18 percent of the white vote and at least 65 percent of the black vote.

[FogerRox]

33. If the zogby poll is any good it looks to be Obama and Edwards in a close race

That would be good for the country, to have the debate with those 2.

[Skip Intro]

34. I hope all communities are energized

[jackson_dem]

37. I do too. Black turnout will increase but so will white turnout. The relative % is up in the air

[jackson_dem]

35. It was 47% lost time. This poll estimates a pretty big increase

[john m]

36. dynasty -- a case for Hillary

a few days ago, I met a man saying
not for Hillary
because of the "dynasty" idea.

I told him, basically,:


you don't like dynasty?
look at the Presidents of the United States.
all (white) guys.
whose dynasty is the longest?
dynasty of (white) men.

now,
among the Presidents,
what adult group has been most under-represented?
women, more than 50% of the adults.

blacks, maybe 10%(?)
(Mexicans, Hispanics, much less.)

time now for a woman to be a President.

Obama, (Richardson,)
you can take your turn after Hillary.

you don't like dynasty? you like change? then,
end the biggest dynasty of all.
"End the dynasty of men" in American Presidency.
(you say you don't like dynasty, and yet,
you vote and maintain that dynasty ironclad?)

[Thrill]

38. ONLY? LOL