Why Obama wins SC...Independents dumped GOP

[Perky]

Last Saturday, GOP Voters essentially mirrored their turnuout in 2000, the last contested GOP primary there. Ther numbers were flat line down be 5,000 or so... Dems were down considerably, but that it to be expected. But idnependent voters were down 55%.

Given what we have seen in the previous primaries and caucuses. Obama stands to be thebenefactor of those votes this coming Saturday...given that and the 70/30 split in his favor among african American voters who make up 50% of the democratic voters and given their turnout will likely be even larger this election......I think Obams is going to win by at least 15%


South Carolina GOP Primary Exit Polls

2000 Primary
Total 100% 573,101
Republicans 61% 349,592
Democrats 9% 51,579
Independents 30% 171,930


2008 Primary
Total 100% 430,919
Republicans 80% 344,735
Democrats 2% 8,618
Independents 18% 77,565

Difference
Total -25% (142,182)
Republicans -1% (4,856)
Democrats -83% (42,961)
Independents -55% (94,365)

These numbers actually bode well for Obama in that independents are more disposed to him thAn Hillary and they did not vote in the GOP Primary,


As always turn out is key, But it certainly looks good.

Exit poll data
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epol ...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep ....


2000 vote totals

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/scprimresults.html

[Perky]

1. Not even going to dispute this?

Wow. I guess Obam Bashers are getting worried.