OK, Fellow EDWARDS Supporters... Time For A REALITY CHECK.

[FlyingSquirrel]

The REALITY is, he's still very much in the race!

:) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

For raw numbers, see this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4122173&mesg_id=4122173


Superdelegates are excluded from the totals below, since they can and DO often change their minds based on the results of the primaries/caucuses.

CURRENT DELEGATE TOTALS are Obama 38, Clinton 36, Edwards 18 -- again not counting superdelegates, or Michigan / Florida whose delegates may not be seated.

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Per the above thread, after Super Tuesday, if 60% of the Undecided/Other vote broke toward Edwards, with the other 40% evenly split between Clinton and Obama, we could see the following Delegate totals:

Clinton 776, Obama 597, Edwards 407; with 1,374 delegates still up for grabs among remaining states.

If Edwards can somehow pick up momentum and gain an even larger percentage of Undecided/Other votes, and/or take some away from Clinton & Obama, Super Tuesday could be a major turning point for him.

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P.S.: States in which Edwards has the LEAST chance of picking up 15% on Super Tuesday, based on polls:

Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Connecticut, Delaware, Democrats Abroad, North Dakota, Utah

DELEGATES HE WOULD LOSE from the above total - Worst Case Scenario - if he got zero in all those states / categories:

43!

Not bad huh?

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(Edited to fix a couple of erroneous totals)

[OzarkDem]

1. Great analysis

The primaries are not like the GE. There are still so many things that can happen.

Dems have become a little complacent in recent years, they've forgotten what a competitive primary race looks like or how it works.

[bigbrother05]

2. Thanks

[Sarah Ibarruri]

3. Go John!!! There are still lots of states left! nt

[Jim Sagle]

4. Fuckin' A!

[stravu9]

10. brokered convention!

here we come!

[asdjrocky]

5. My question is-

How can they stay in? I mean, all they are doing is dividing the party. I'll say it now, for the good of the Democratic party, one of them should drop out.:)

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. My question too! :-)

I didn't get SC in there, another 45 delegates before Super Tuesday. Also it looks like the total up for grabs after Super Tuesday is 1,428 not 1,374 although I'm still in the process of figuring out which states have what number of delegates. It's harder than I thought it would be.

[Lugnut]

6. K&R

47 states to go!

[onehandle]

8. Kick. nt

[stravu9]

9. Go John Go!

Hooray!

[the other one]

11. Onward to a brokered convention, and a Gore nomination.

Things are going splendidly. GoreObama or GoreEdwards is looking ever more likely. How about GoreRFKjr?