Obama will win a blowout in South Carolina by 15-20 points

[quinnox]

This is my prediction. Obama has wrapped up black support and he will have a decisive victory in South Carolina. And when it happens I won't weasel like some other unnamed supporters and say it was a "tie" or a "moral victory" for Hillary. I will give all due credit to Obama.

[FrenchieCat]

1. You should change your avatar then.

It would make you less transparent! :eyes:

[Bok_Tukalo]

2. What if it is 6 points instead of 15-20?

<POE>

[quinnox]

5. then I will feel better about the result

but I still won't say it was a tie.

[Bok_Tukalo]

12. A primary and a caucus are different

I wonder what Nevada's real numbers were.

Regardless, a 15-20 point defeat (which is absurd) for Clinton would be an embarrasing drubbing. 5-7 is probably more of an accurate reflection of what is going on.

Which means if she wins, the Obama campaign is in serious trouble.

[laconicsax]

6. Then Clinton rigged the vote

duh...

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. Funny that's what they said about NH & Nevada a couple of weeks ago.

[SoFlaJet]

14. and a few months ago

it was being said that Hillary was a lock to win and Obama ends up with more delegates than her yesterday

[Major Hogwash]

24. And they're recounting New Hampshire as we speak - Hillary hasn't won a primary yet!!

When NH's vote becomes official, then we'll know if she won.

I don't think she did.

[MediaBabe]

27. You try to live up to your nic, doncha? LOL n/t

[Evergreen Emerald]

4. I agree. I think the negative campaigning, using the race card

has worked. The black voting block will vote black, at least that is what the polls say. He has been using race since he started, it will payoff in SC.

[KennedyGuy]

It will certainly fail in the general election though..

[NMDemDist2]

7. yeah, that will be after he loses FL and before he loses PA and CA n/t

[CoffeeCat]

8. The vitriol in here...

...is getting close to being completely unbearable.

This place is turning into a virtual toilet of smarm and snark.

What in the hell is wrong with everyone?

Was it like this during the last primary?

[SoFlaJet]

29. The Clinton-ites

have been almost un-bearable. There are a lot of people who have signed up just recently and keep throwing these divisive threads up which prompt other teams to respond in kind-i think they are the instigators

[Perry Logan]

9. If they win, will the Obama people stop with the bullshit accusations?

[quinnox]

11. one can hope

but I'm not optimistic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It's Expected

Jesse Jackson won thirteen primaries and caucuses in 1988 including Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia and the District of Columbia and South Carolina...


on edit- my post was for clarification... i do not endorse the mean spiritedness on this board...

[cali]

13. Glad to see that you'll follow the example of many Obama supporters

who congratulated Clinton and her supporters here first thing. And I won't follow the example that you and so many other Clinton supporters set by being the worst winners imaginable.

And that's some cute little game you're playing: You know perfectly well he won't win by that margin. Typical of you.

[quinnox]

18. I don't think I was a bad winner

Admittedly there were some Clinton supporters who were, but nothing can be done about it. Clinton supporters are not a monolithic group, they are all individuals.

[Tellurian]

28. Moi? was I a bad winner? I can't remember.. I must have been euphoric or something..

[still_one]

15. I don't believe anyone knows what will happen in South Carolina

You have a lot of factors at work

[sunonmars]

16. The only problem i forsee with SC

is that it will amplify the race divide louder than you can imagine.

That i don't want.

However if this is seen or portrayed by the msm only as a black vote for a black candidate then it could be damaging to Obama. That he does not want to be portrayed as.

I know we dont like talking about it but it is going to be talked about you can guarantee the msm will.

Hillary also has her work cut out here, if she does manage to take some of that black vote and takes a massive white majority, how does that play out in the msm.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

17. At least. Maybe 30

[Dems Will Win]

Well then I guess he also has GA, MS, LA, AL, IN, MA, CT, PA, TX, VA, MD, DE, IL, MO, WS, HI

Those all look like his states now, between black support and home state advantage. Obama will also split CA with Hil, (only 5 behind there and getting BIG Latino support).

Once they split Feb 5, all the Obama states are up.

Hillary has lost the nomination. It looks deceptively good for her right now because all the states so far have been low minority populations.

With Latinos swinging to Obama in CA and TX, she is finished in my view. Obama may not get a big share of the white vote in the South but he doesn't need to. And he's shown he can win the white vote everywhere else.

Hillary is toast, too many states out of reach, just as MD and SC are now.

Her only hope was to racialize the contest - it didn't work. He still has the NE, MW and Western Whites, and now he has the blacks. IT was a bet to turn off white voters in the whole nation and the gamble failed miserably.

It was a stupid strategy from Penn to try and turn into a national black-whote race, because Obama was never going to get a lot of white Southerners, and he's too talented to lose the white vote outside the South. That's why Rasmussen now shows a 4-point nationally race instead of a 9 point lead for Hillary. Even the day after Nevada.

Penn might have won if he had just made Hil human in the beginning and had her talk her economic plan all the time. Too late now, the black voter has switched and is not coming back and is 25% of the Democratic Primary vote!

[sunonmars]

21. pretty bad analysis

Latinos are firmly behind Clinton, the poll last night showed that by nearly 70%. California will be no different.

If Obama becomes the black candidate, he loses big time.

[Dems Will Win]

19. Well then I guess he also has GA, MS, LA, AL, IN, MA, CT, PA, TX, VA, MD, DE, IL, MO, WS, HI

Those all look like his states now, between black support and home state advantage. Obama will also split CA with Hil, (only 5 behind there and getting BIG Latino support).

Once they split Feb 5, all the Obama states are up.

Hillary has lost the nomination. It looks deceptively good for her right now because all the states so far have been low minority populations.

With Latinos swinging to Obama in CA and TX, she is finished in my view. Obama may not get a big share of the white vote in the South but he doesn't need to. And he's shown he can win the white vote everywhere else.

Hillary is toast, too many states out of reach, just as MD and SC are now.

Her only hope was to racialize the contest - it didn't work. He still has the NE, MW and Western Whites, and now he has the blacks. IT was a bet to turn off white voters in the whole nation and the gamble failed miserably.

It was a stupid strategy from Penn to try and turn into a national black-whote race, because Obama was never going to get a lot of white Southerners, and he's too talented to lose the white vote outside the South. That's why Rasmussen now shows a 4-point nationally race instead of a 9 point lead for Hillary. Even the day after Nevada.

Penn might have won if he had just made Hil human in the beginning and had her talk her economic plan all the time. Too late now, the black voter has switched and is not coming back and is 25% of the Democratic Primary vote!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Your Analysis Is Beyond Flawed

"Obama will also split CA with Hil, (only 5 behind there and getting BIG Latino support)."

He's losing the Latino vote in Cali by 2.5-1:



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1e03ce76-ecf5-46b8-86a5-4a5cd6d9bc67

[BootinUp]

20. Hillary needs to figure out how to do

better than.

[Major Hogwash]

23. It's all downhill from here on for Obama!!

He's going to Denver as the nominee!!

[kentuck]

25. If Obama loses SC....?

It may be difficult for him to re-capture the old magic...?

[zabet]

26. I disagree.

If he wins, it will not be that big
of a margin. I live in the South.
Do not underestimate the white racist
hatred that is rampant. There are pukes
that will change parties just to vote
against an African-American.