Raw totals based on entrance polls - who would have won what?

[sunonmars]

The raw vote totals i think would have been so much different,

I 've just been working figures back from the entrance poll for CNN, it was pretty spot on apprently, i wonder how it actually all played out there, because

Vote by Region

Washoe County was 18% of voters and Obama took that 47 to 33 and Edwards had 12% (no doubt Obama)

clark county had 66% of voters and Hillary took it by a massive 53% to 39% and edwards 6% (No doubt Clinton)

Now heres the dodgy one

Rural Nevada only has 16% of the voters : Clinton took 42%, Obama 41% and Edwards 13% (it was a split)

So Obama only took Rural nevada with Edwards votes, edwards non viability was the problem here in certain precints.

In reality Clinton took massive votes and if it had been a primary, Obama would have been still 7% behind.

If this was how it worked out, I think Clinton would have taken Nevada with approximately 47.7% and Obama 40.7% and Edwards 11.6%


In Washoe Obama takes 8.5%, Clinton 6% and Edwards 3.5% total 18%

In Clark county Obama takes 25.7 Clinton takes 35% and Edwards 5.3% total 66%

In Rural Nevada Obama takes 6.5% Clinton takes 6.7% and Edwards 2.8% total 16%

So Hillary still took Nevada convincingly on raw voting had it happened. So actually it seems the last polls were quite correct about a 7-9% win. Mason Dixon got the seperation right, it was Edwards votes that were the over assumed.

Just wanted to show you how i think it all broke down vote wise.

just an estimate, vote totals from the at larges not included but might swing Hillary another 1% or so.

[dkf]

1. Entrance polls had no at large caucus.

I'm guessing that would skew your #s.