Does HIllary have enough momentum to win SC?

[cali]

I think it's possible that she can win in next weeks SC primary. Here's how:

Most of JE's support in SC is white and working class. Those voters are a more natural fit for Hillary than for Obama, and I see some of them- maybe even the majority- peeling off from Edwards and voting for Hillary. Will it be enough? Could be, but really all she has to do is keep it within 5 or 6 points- just as Obama did in NV. The difference is that she'll be seen as the winner in many ways if she does this. And that's what her supporters both here and elsewhere will claim if she comes within a few points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. If Edwards Collapses Like He Collapsed In NV It Will Be Close

Barring that it's unlikely Hillary can win...

[cali]

2. I don't mean any disrespect to Edwards supporters

but I do think it's likely that Edwards will barely break the double digits in SC. Do you consider that a collapse?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. You Could Probably Make A Mathematical Model

For every point drop in SC for Edwards you would probably see a concomitant increase for Hillary...

[Dob Bole]

8. Edwards didn't "collapse" in NV...

His percentage of support was probably much higher, but in most places wouldn't have met the 15% threshold needed for a caucus...so his supporters were forced to support either Clinton or Obama.

In South Carolina, he won't do as well as he did in Iowa, but he'll deny Clinton a victory.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. It's More Likely Than Not He Will Not Win A Caucus Or Primary This Year

~

[totodeinhere]

15. He needs to break through soon.

The MSM has already written him off. He needs to prove them wrong in his home state of S. C.

[sunonmars]

22. problem is there are no expectations on HRC in SC

If she does bad, it will be blamed on the AA vote, if she does well, Obama will be in trouble.

[babylonsister]

3. That could also all depend on what nasty tricks she has up her

sleeve this week; you know they're planning and plotting surrogate 'slip-ups' even as I type.

[MH1]

7. Yep, what you said.

[cali]

10. Sadly,

I think that's not only probable but quite likely.

[sandnsea]

38. Precisely

They'll say any damn thing. Even if it destroys and discredits everything we've been fighting against for years. Everybody wants to get in a tizz over Reagan when Bill is out their reinforcing the image of unions as a bunch of thugs. The damage they're doing to the Party will be felt down ticket for years. This is a real disaster.

[Nimrod2005]

4. Yes

[x-g.o.p.er]

5. No

[dailykoff]

9. As far as I can tell she hasn't had a legitimate win yet.

So my answer is, no. She isn't gaining momentum, she's losing it, except perhaps in the virtual Hillaryland created by Clinton "strategists" and cooperating media.

[Captain Hilts]

18. I'll bet you could convince yourself that we're winning in Iraq. nt

[dailykoff]

21. Exxon-Mobil and Halliburton are unquestionably winning in Iraq

so I guess you're right.

[natrat]

12. who cares ? it's a corporate designed load of shit

[cali]

16. you're in a small minority here. Lot's of people care and lots

us don't see it as simplistically as you do.

[moriah]

13. Honestly, no.

I understand that the electorate is sometimes unduly influenced by the results of primaries/caucuses that have already occurred and that might make John Edwards slip, but 1) he's a Southern boy and us Southerners like other Southerners, Hillary isn't quite a Southerner although she'd probably get the Southern vote if the rest were "Massachusetts Liberals" but that's not the case here. 2) The makeup of the Democratic electorate in SC doesn't make it likely for a Clinton win -- especially with all the race-crap that has gone on, I think SC will be an Obama victory.

Florida will be a beauty contest and honestly I think Clinton will win there since turnout of younger voters will be limited, there's a much higher percentage of retirees in Florida anyway, and then it's Super Tuesday.

I hope that Clinton and Obama can kiss and make up because they're likely going to be on the ticket together. I just get the odd feeling that Hillary might refuse if she was offered the VP slot. Then again, a VP has a better chance of getting elected later on, she might take it. Who knows?

[Tarc]

14. Yes, but not terribly necessary

Its all about Feb 5th now, neither of the front-runners need it to continue on. I fear Edwards needs to win it or get a very, very tight 2nd to be relevant in remaining primaries though.

[Captain Hilts]

17. Probably not. nt

[sunonmars]

19. we dont usually agree but you may be right

[H2O Man]

20. It's a fascinating contest.

I think that the battle in South Carolina will be the most important going into Super Tuesday. The dynamics of the primary will show us the very best potential for the party as a whole, and the very worst potential. There will be relatively little focus on anything in-between.

As you pointed out yesterday, we are reaching a point where the supporters of two candidates will need to examine the possibility of supporting someone who is not their first choice. Hopefully, the vast majority will be willing to make their second choice one of the other three. But, as some of the wiser voices (both in the larger society and on DU) are warning, there are potential fractures taking place within some of the traditional democratic party blocks. Shades of '68.

[Sulawesi]

23. I am afraid SC willbe even uglier than NV if HRC remains trailing in the polls

[boston bean]

24. I tend to agree, but for a different reason

Sadly, unfortunately, black voters in SC are going to start to realize that Obama can't win a general election and they will go with Hillary. I think maybe 10-15% of Obama black supporters will switch to Hillary and that will put her on top.

I have tried to have discussions before about how racist this country is and how hard it will be to overcome and I have been called a racist by duers. Which could not be further from the truth.

I always look at elections based on electability and race and gender play a role in that, no matter how much we wish it wouldn't.

[Avalux]

25. No. Obama will get the independent vote which didn't turn out for the GOP yesterday.

Obama will also garner the African-American vote, although Hillary will do her best (everything's a go) to try to win some of that back. I don't think she will win SC.

[boston bean]

26. haven't you realized by now that the larger the turn out, the more it helps hillary? nt

[Avalux]

27. I'm sorry, I guess you just know more than me.

:eyes:

[boston bean]

28. I didn't mean it like that. I apologize

sometimes on this board lately I lose it.

I know you have been around a long time.

Please accept my mea culpa.

[Avalux]

30. It's interesting to see, especially old-timers, taking sides and 'losing it'.

I do it too every now and then. I was reading some stats and talking to some people about what might happen on Saturday, so my previous post was based on some knowledge. We all want our selected candidate to win, so we look for positive signs and indications that they will.

Apology accepted. :hi:

[boston bean]

31. Thanks sparosnare! To each candidate, good luck in SC!

:hi:

[robbedvoter]

29. Maybe, maybe not. But sure as hell she'll clean up on Super Tuesday.

I can't say of SC - they have open primaries, they made the 2 a week apart - who's to stop all the GOP-ers to come vote against her in OUR primary? They did it for Edwards in 2004 - 70% of his voters were "enthusiastic Bush supporters" according to that exit poll. So, I'll never dare make predictions about SC (on the GOP side, Bush stole it from McCain in 2000)
In states where Democrats vote in democratic primaries - she'll win.

[anamnua]

32. Does HIllary have enough momentum to win SC?

Probably not.

[Jai4WKC08]

35. I agree.

Probably not.

The important question is, how well does Obama need to do to recapture momentum going into Super Tuesday?

[Barack_America]

33. IMO, He doesn't just need to win...he probably needs to win big.

He needs to trounce her. And no, not just to make me happy.

He needs to trounce her because he's expected to win in SC, so only a strong victory would give him the kind of momentum he needs going into Super Tuesday.

And I think he can.

[1corona4u]

34. No, her skin's the wrong color.

[Jai4WKC08]

36. That's unfair

And not very smart.

[1corona4u]

40. You can call it what you want...

but when 65% of the black vote goes to Obama, when it previously did not, I say they are voting their race. The black vote in SC abandoned Hillary when they started to think that maybe Obama had a chance. That's a fact, according to the polls.

And, then there's stuff like this;

HOUSE MAJORITY WHIP
Clyburn says race a factor in Democratic primary in S.C.
DAVID LIGHTMAN
McClatchy Newspapers
Race is a factor in the upcoming S.C. Democratic primary, says House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, the highest ranking African American in Congress and perhaps South Carolina's most powerful black politician.

"Race plays everywhere in the country and let's just admit that," he said in an interview for C-SPAN's "Newsmakers" program, scheduled to air Sunday. "Will people go to the polls on the 26th of January and think race in South Carolina? Many of them will."

But he said he's not sure who that could help or hurt.

Clyburn has not endorsed a candidate, but seemed to inch close last week to embracing Illinois Sen. Barack Obama after he was frustrated by comments from Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Clyburn said he was pushed to back Obama by family members and others.

"The pressure was great," he said. "There was a point in time when I wondered if I could stand it."

Today, he says, "I've got to say any one of them would serve us as a party and serve the African American community very well."

http://www.charlotte.com/171/story/453085.html




Now, who's being unfair??

[Barack_America]

39. Very classy post. Blacks don't see beyond skin color?

This is your "point"?

You're doing Hillary proud, keep it up.

[Fabio]

37. Will be interesting to watch.

When is it?