I believe Obama can beat McCain -- I don't think Hillary can. I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

[calmblueocean]

I feel strongly that McCain is going to ultimately be the Republican nominee. In a McCain v. Obama race, I think Obama wins. His vitality, energy, and unifying message asking us to turn the page of history make him more attractive to voters than a 71-year-old war veteran who wants to keep us in Iraq for the next "10,000 years".

I'm just not convinced that Hillary can capture that same sense of momentum. The dynamic changes if Hillary is the nominee. Hillary stokes the right wing base just by her presence, and I don't think she has enough in her favor to compensate for it. Don't get me wrong -- I think Hill could win against Huckabee, even against Rudy (if he were a factor), but I think a McCain candidacy is one that I just don't see Hillary defeating.

As I said, I'm willing to be convinced otherwise. I'd like to get a general sense from DUers who they think would be better against McCain, Hillary or Obama. (Sorry Edwards supporters!)

[parasim]

1. I agree.

Obama vs. McCain, it's Obama hands down. Hillary vs. McCain? Not so much.

imho.

[Faryn Balyncd]

36. But our BEST bet agaunst McCain, & all Republicans, continues to be . . . . . JOHN EDWARDS . . .

How fortunate are we that the candidate with the most backbone is also the most ELECTABLE?





What does it tell us when our most ANTI-CORPORATE, most POPULIST candidate, is our candidate who draws the most support, not only from the progressive Democratic base, but also draws the most support from independents and even dis-illusioned Republicans?


When corporatism's abuses are so transparent that even Republicans are willing to cross party lines and vote for a POPULIST Democrat WITH BACKBONE, what is the logic in nominating a corporate Democrat?


Why is it that corporate shills like Dick Morris are so anxious to count Edwards out, on Fox?

[pnwmom]

2. I think either of them could beat McCain.

All HRC needs to do is get one more state than Kerry did, and there are several possibilities in the midwest and west.

Also, I think that if women see a lot of Rethug misogyny in the race, there could be a large backlash, just as there was in N.H. Even without a backlash, she got 75% of the women's vote in New York, including very high number of women's votes in the RED parts of the state.

The thing that most concerns me is not which of our excellent candidates will be the nominee, but whether the machines will be fixed, and whether Democratic voters will be purged from the rolls.

[K Gardner]

6. I really don't think we WANT to get into a "one state decides" race with the GOP again. We *must*

not fall into that trap.. we cannot afford to again.

[loveangelc]

3. I agree. Democrats will learn the hard way if Hillary is the nominee.

What state will Hillary carry that Kerry did not carry? I dont think she carries OH or FL against McCain. I don't think she carries Iowa either. Obviously Independents will not vote for Hillary; Obama does well with Independents. Republicans will be motivated like never before to come out and vote to keep Hillary out. If Hillary is the nominee its President McCain, and its that simple.

[goldcanyonaz]

5. And, even harder if Obama is the nominee.

[loveangelc]

14. No... because he would win.

I don't understand how people cannot understand that Independents may not make the difference in the Democratic primaries, they're going to matter a great deal in the general election. Democrats cannot win soley on Democratic support, sorry to say.

[1corona4u]

11. Wrong. She wins Florida hands down.

Election 2008: Florida Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton
48%

Barack Obama
24%

John Edwards
14%

Some Other Candidate
3%

Not Sure
12%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_democratic_primary

That's a pretty big gap....

[loveangelc]

15. um, I'm talking about Hillary vs McCain...

[hedgehog]

4. Hillary is starting to come across as a latter-day Jimmy Carter

in some respects. Her ad showing her busily reading papers and taking notes at a desk and nodding to an off-screen speaker combined with her promise to run the bureaucracy smacks of micro-management. Jimmy tried that and it doesn't work. You need to get good people, give them directions and turn them loose. The captain gives the orders on the ship of state. Other people handle the rudder and set the sails.

[jackson_dem]

12. Bill Clinton did it and it worked. Bush 43 used the Obama approach...

[NoBorders]

7. I wish I could disagree with you. Only chance is The Women

We need lots and lots of women to come out and vote for Hillary, even Repub women who come home and told tell their husbands they dutifully voted for McCain, but really voted for Clinton b/c they want to see a woman in the WH. That's my only for a Clinton win over McCain, and it just might happen.

[gdaerin]

64. you would pretty much need All the women, and a lot of women steadfastly hate her

just a fact, sorry

[DJ13]

8. Obama would be a better choice against McCain

Hillary has extremely high negatives working against her with both the independants and Republicans (Rep's more so).

McCains biggest weakness is his negatives within his own party's base, and the GOP base would rather get circumsized by a stuttering midget than vote for a Clinton, while his greatest strength comes from the independants both parties need to win the GE.

Obama has shown a remarkable ability to draw a large % of independants, and theres even a substancial amount of interest in voting for him in the GE within the GOP if he can win the nomination.

Hands down Obama is the best chance we have against someone like McCain who's biggest support comes from independants.

[Carrieyazel]

9. McCain likely beats both of our "frontrunners". McCain's age hasn't hurt him. I thought it would.

I always believed McCain was too old and would not be electable. But McCain's celebrity and his baffling appeal to Independents gives him a huge edge and minimizes the age concerns. And Iraq isn't having the impact I thought it would. Look at all these Dems voting for Hillary. She was lock-step for the war, supported it for several years, and didn't speak out against it until it was politically safe. Voters don't seem to care all that much.

And a lot of voters are just blocking it out of their minds. It doesn't affect them personally. If there were a draft like Vietnam, it would be a different story.

[FVZA_Colonel]

31. It is baffling how he can have so much independent support.

Why is that? (I don't mean to force an answer, but I honestly can come up with an answer, given how much he's sucked up to Bush since 2004).

[MrSlayer]

10. I think McCain can beat both of them.

PA will go red. We've put ourselves in position to lose what should be a unlosable election.

[loveangelc]

17. I think we have more of a chance of winning with Obama than Hillary though.

[FrenchieCat]

19. I disagree. Obama can win, and here's why....

Obama was against this war, and he can point out how wrong McCain was on this, and what it has cost us.

McCain can only sell the surge for so long. If the Obama campaign can show the underside of this war, it will get ugly.

Hillary was wrong on the War, and so it doesn't matter is she didn't support the surge.

Obama represents the future, McCain represents the past.

Obama represents hope, McCain, not so much.

McCain tells us that even when we disagree with him, he'll stick to his guns.
Obama tells us that he will include us in his decisions.

Obama can talk himself out of a hole in the ground.
McCain has no oratory power.

Obama has new ideas and a new approach.
McCain is an old dog with no new tricks.

Obama has a young vibrant family
McCain has that wife of his, and grown kids.

Obama is tall, dark and Handsome
McCain is quat, boxy and in not good health.

There is quite a contrast between the two.

The VP pick would make the difference.

Wes Clark or Jim Webb are the best Veep picks for anyone running against McCain.

[calmblueocean]

20. This is my thinking, too. I'd like to see a similar list for Hillary, if someone can write one.

McCain's blind support for the war in Iraq will make him seem steadfast, while Hillary's I-supported-going-in-but-don't-support-it-now will come off as inconsistent and wishy-washy. That's the way it seems to me, anyway.

[harun]

77. I tend to agree

I think Obama would eat McCain for dinnner.

Obama can get rural and urban support. I don't see how McCain could compete with that.

I think Hillary would have to get Repuke women for her to beat McCain. She could probably get some of them in the North East, Midwest and the West but in the South she will get nothing except for some urban areas. I think it would be close with her getting beat by McCain.

I think Obama beats McCain by > 5%.

[MichiganVote]

13. A race in the primaries is entirely different than for the GE

[Orangepeel]

16. McCain will be the hardest R for either to beat. I think it will be marginally harder for Hillary

A fair number of die hard right wingers hate McCain. Some of them might stay home for an Obama vs. McCain race (not many, but some). But right wingers that hate McCain usually hate Hillary more.

[Sparkly]

18. McCain's answer to the Iraq fiasco is to send in MORE troops!!

I think that alone should sink him.

[FVZA_Colonel]

29. But he could go on and on about how the Surge has worked, how Baghdad is 75 percent secure

(as USA Today claims), completely ignoring it's complete failure on the political front (the reconciliation law is so riddled with holes it might as well not exist), not to mention the untenable alliance forged with the Sunni tribes (what the hell is to say they won't turn on the central government if Al Qaeda is ever dealt with?)

[Sparkly]

32. I think people realize that if it had worked, we'd be getting out.

The majority finally realize the thing is fubar.

[FVZA_Colonel]

33. I want to believe that, and maybe I listen to the pundits too much,

but I'm not sure it has become clear that despite the media reports the Surge has ultimately failed.

[Sparkly]

39. You're probably right about that, for a lot of people

but I don't *think* it's the majority. Then again, I have a history of overestimating the intelligence of the American populace.

And the "surge working" is definitely what McCain is hanging his hat on. "Surge working! More surge!"

[Barack_America]

21. It's also the Independents. They will flock to McCain over Hillary.

I'm sorry that I can't convince you otherwise, I actually agree with you 100%, lol.

[Barack_America]

22. BTW- I had the honor of being your 5th rec! n/t

[CK_John]

23. Why worry about McCain, you know we will be up against Romney and Bloomberg, n/t

[BootinUp]

24. Whens the last time a Clinton

lost an election against a repuke?

[girl gone mad]

25. Obama kind of lost to McCain in NH.

That was an early test of the Independent vote. Obama was predicted to win them over big, but it didn't happen. The Independent's broke for McCain, instead. My Independent FIL Likes Obama a lot, but would still vote for McCain based on the experience argument. My Democratic MIL hated Hillary during the Clinton years but wants to vote for her in the GE - go figure.

I think any of our candidates can beat McCain, Clinton would probably do better against him by exciting the base since Independents and young people are completely unreliable.

[loveangelc]

35. That cannot be compared.

Hillary lost more of the Independent vote than Obama did in NH. Democrats will go to whomever the nominee is, but Independents will play a huge part, and whoever our nominee is will have to get Independent support. Obama gets more Independent support than Hillary, therefore Obama has a better chance against McCain than Hillary.

[girl gone mad]

42. Clinton is not relying on support from Independents.

Obama is.

You can't assume that Democrats are just going to show up at the polls and flip the lever for whatever D is on the ticket. We lost the last 2 elections on assumptions like that (yes, and fraud, but it shouldn't have been that close). Gore and Kerry both failed to excite the base.

I actually don't believe that Hillary is all that polarizing. Lots of people hate her, but Bush was far more polarizing in 2004, yet he still won. Clinton has enormous good will from her husband's Presidency. If you'll remember, he was still polling about as high as any President in history when he left. The idea that vast groups of people hate them is unfounded.

[loveangelc]

49. Democrats this year are very excited to put a Democrat back in office.

There was record turnout for Democrats in 2004 I believe, its just that Republicans did a little better. Any Democrat who has even a chance of winning is going to need Independent support. Clinton may not be relying on them now, but she will need it in the general election. She has very high negatives among Republicans, which will motivate their base like no one else. Bill may be popular but I think we recognize that Bill Clinton does not = Hillary Clinton.

[gdaerin]

67. That being said, Clinton can't win on the base alone,

especially considering how her running would bring the republicans out in droves

[Barack_America]

But the rest Obama won over Hillary, handily...n/t

[Barack_America]

38. But the rest Obama won over Hillary, handily...n/t

[Lebam in LA]

26. Any of our top 3

will beat any repug

[Az_lefty]

27. I agree. Hillary can't win the GE

if we truly want to win, we need to get Obama or Edwards in there.

[TeamJordan23]

28. Hillary cannot get Indep. voters. She will lose a GE. nm

[Perry Logan]

30. What a jittery bunch! We could put up a dog for President in 2008 and still beat the Republicans.

[TheWebHead]

34. mccain will beat hillary

there's no doubt in my mind. She has no chance with anything more than a fraction of independents. Too polarizing, Bill will be too meddlesome. Obama would have the better chance by competing for independents and drawing out new voters. His biggest hump obviously is trying to get past a primary of Democrats who will vote against their best interests for our chances in the general. hillary is our party's poison pill on the top of the ticket and in the congress in red states.

[Tulkas]

37. I agree

Hillary's negatives are to high to take on McCain.

People won't turn out For her, the will turn out Against her.

[AGirl]

40. If the election is going to be about experience

Hillary and Bill can beat Obama on that one. Obama 's inexperience will show even more against McCain.

[DemCam]

41. This is what I keep trying to imagine...

?????

Wise father...v...kid.

National Security v. kid

Hillary knows McCain well. She trumps with experience and not keeping troops there for 1000 years.

[Tulkas]

45. Grandpa v man in his prime

McCain will be the oldest candidate for president in history (if he gets that far)

He needs to read his victory speeches off of teleprompters or he starts to ramble.

I like the guy, but he can't compare to Barack.

The security card is the only one he can play, and we have all heard that one for far to long.



I can't see a frail old guy who can't raise his arms properly to comb his own hair (because of the torture he endured in Vietnam, he is a hero and I don't want to insult him or his service to our country) standing up to Obama on stage in a head to head debate.

[Tom Rinaldo]

43. McCain's ace cards are experience and national security credentials

Those are Obama's weakest cards. That is a potentially dangerous match up for us. Obama against a Governor, Obama against a Mayor, Obama against a back bencher one term plus Senator like Thompson; those match ups would not create as stark a perceived contrast of a skilled veteran against a wet behind the ears rookie as a McCain Obama match up might. I know some here at DU give minimal creedence to any assertion that Clinton is a more seasoned and experienced political leader than Obama, but that flies in the face of all national polling done to date. Most of the public believes Hillary is far more experienced even if some here do not.

One of Hillary's other strengths this primary season has been her ability to convey a deep understanding of and mastery of the details concerning a wide array of issues and policy matters during her debate performances. She may not always be the most inspirational speaker but she comes across to most observers as highly intelligent and competent. Those qualities will be needed in a Democratic candidate opposing McCain.

McCain's other great strength is that he almost always comes across as the real adult in the room when he is surrounded by the other Republican candidates. That quality is driving his success now even though many of his past positions remain at odds with the core Republican base. Everyone knows McCain has paid his dues and that he is a very serious candidate. Again, Hillary Clinton can stand up and hold her own against those qualities better than any of our other remaining candidates.

No matter who we nominate, that person will run on a Democratic platform and McCain will have to overcome the negative stigma associated with the Republican Party coming out of two terms of a Bush Jr. Presidency. It is my feeling that the race is ours to lose, and that the only way Republicans can win is if they sow deep enough seeds of doubt about the capacity of who ever the Democrats nominate to lead our nation through difficult times. Obama has only been a player on the national scene for three years. The last time America elected a President Obama was among many thousands of American politicians serving in State legislatures representing very local districts.

The logical basis for sowing doubt over our candidate's ability to lead our nation and the world will be handed to McCain on a silver platter if Obama should become our nominee. The buzz word will be inexperienced, and inexperience fails to elicit confidence, especially when contrasted with someone like McCain. Hillary Clinton would nuetralize that particular advantage for McCain far more than would Barack Obama, and I think any Democrat will win in 2008 if the election actually revolves around the issues.

Further I trust in Clinton's toughness under political fire. I know she won't have a momentary melt down that could throw her campaign seriously off track. She can get thrown momentarily off stride, that happens to everyone in politics, but I don't think she can get thrown off her feet. Hillary has held up under the worst that the national media can throw at her already, for well over a decade. I think any Republican, even McCain, will need for the Democrat to have some serious stumbles in order to win, and Hillary Clinton is the Democrat who is least likely to stumble. It's like knowing your vehicle has four wheel drive as you head into a likely snow storm. It is reassuring for solid reasons.

Hillary Clinton is showing that now, in the adjustment she made when the front runner campaign strategy she had been holding to failed to connect with the actual voters she was asking to support her. She took a blow in Iowa and she made a real adjustment and became a better candidate because of it. That to me is very encouraging.

Finally, yes there is the matter of her being a woman. The thing is, women are not a minority group in America, they are a majority group. And every time some Republican talk show Yahoo takes a negative below the belt swing at Hillary Clinton (and you know that they will even if McCain himself doesn't) that will strengthen her appeal to women, including Independent and Republican women. If Hillary Clinton is our nominee I expect some surprises to be revealed in the exit polls conducted on election day. Many Republican women who will be assuring their husbands (and telephone pollsters calling them at home) all along that they too can't vote for Hillary will do exactly that, in the privacy of a polling booth.

[girl gone mad]

46. Good analysis.

I've been an Edwards supporter, Obama still being my second choice, but I think Clinton regularly outperforms Obama in the debates. He fumbles too often, and is prone to sophomoric gaffes. Obama v. McCain is the pairing that concerns me the most of any match-up. Obama's inexperience could be a dangerous issue if national security threats get played up, and let's not forget who occupies the White House. I fully expect a good deal of saber-rattling come summer and fall.

[calmblueocean]

62. Thanks for the very thoughtful answer.

That's the sort of elucidating of Hillary's strong points I was looking for.

I'm still not convinced that Hillary is the better candidate to beat John McCain, but you've given me something to chew on. I think the point about women being a majority group is especially a good one.

[Josh]

44. I actually think if it was Obama voters would think "Let McCain have it this time,"

Obama can have it next time - because McCain is 71 and has all this experience, and Obama is a inexperienced in comparison.

That said, I think whoever wins the Dem nomination, if they're running against McCain, should just tie him to the war he loves so much and keep showing that photo of him hugging Bush with his eyes closed, like "Awww, I'm safe in your arms." Just tie him to Bush. He'll go down.

[Tulkas]

47. People want a democrat this time

Obama has a built in advantage, as long as we don't nominate Hillary, who will have lots of people turn out just because they don't like her.


It may also depend on the V.P. for McCain. Don't forget the guy is old and appears frail at times. If he has a V.P. that people don't like (Thompson?) then they may not want that person one heartbeat away.

[FVZA_Colonel]

50. If he picks Huckabee as his VP, then I do think we'd really be in trouble.

The Religious Right would be pissed about not getting the top slot, but having the man who is Second in Line be one of their own might console them.

[Josh]

51. I know Hil and Obama are 'fighting' right now, but if she does win, she HAS to put

him on the ticket (assuming he accepts - and why wouldn't he?) - the she can say ot him, get out there and be as charismatic and inspirational as you want, bring in all the young voters, and let's go out and win this thing.

McCain-Whoever stands no chance against the power of Clinton-Obama.

[gdaerin]

70. "why wouldn't he" you're not an Obama supporter are you? nt

[Josh]

78. Well who wouldn't want to be Vice President?

If he doesn't want the nomination and is offered the slot, I assume he'd take it.

I like Obama a lot, and I also like Hillary. I'm not American, so I can't vote, but I'm keenly interested in US politics and wrote my thesis on it. :)

[AndyTiedye]

48. McCain Would Be a Big Problem for Either of Them

Neither Hillary and Obama are going to pick up "swing voters" if they are running against McCain.

[Barack_America]

52. Hillary's vote to start a war and then not to fund it, once the troops were committed,

would KILL her against McCain.

Dead, no hope of recovery...done.

[Yael]

56. Zing!

[Barack_America]

58. That's exactly how the GOP will spin it...

And when you're running against a former POW, that = big fucking problems.

[Yael]

59. Oh hells yeah.

She faces McCain and downticket is going to pay the deepest price of all.

[Barack_America]

60. True that. *sigh* Why do so few people understand this?

I have nothing against the woman personally. I have tremendous respect for her (or at least I did). However, I just don't see any chance *at all* for her to win a general election. Therefore, I will fight tooth and nail to keep her from getting the nomination.

[AGirl]

66. Really? You talk alot of crap about her.

[Barack_America]

68. Notice I said *used to* have respect...

The way that she has run her campaign thus far has just about done away with that.

And, yes, I will fight tooth and nail for Barack. IMO, he's our only chance at a Dem in the White House...and Hillary is standing in his way. There's too much at stake not to.

[AGirl]

69. I have tremendous respect for her (or at least I did).

"have"?

[Yael]

76. I don't know, sis. I am just boggled.

[Muttocracy]

74. yep, among other things n/t

[Yael]

53. Hillary will go down in flames against McCain

For no other reason than Clinton fatigue.

Sorry, Clinton fans.

JMO

[joshcryer]

54. Tell that to women voters.

Women voters are going to destroy any candidate going up against Hillary Clinton.

[Yael]

55. I am a woman voter -- and she has yet to win me over

[Barack_America]

57. Um, another woman voter who has no interest in Hillary.

And, for the record, you'll find this sentiment repeated often in the Midwest. Did you follow the Iowa exit polls? Here's a hint: Obama won women.

[FrenchieCat]

61. She's a woman, but she's got a man behind her....which is one of the reasons that she is viably

perceived as being strong....not based on herself is a recipe for disaster.
The Gop will not hesitate in pointing that out. Women may believe why not vote for a man, instead of voting for a woman with a man standing in her shadow to prop her up.

McCain/Straight Talk Express against Clintons/known for lying and triangulating will be a slaughter....the one time when we, as Democrats had our chance.

[AGirl]

65. I am a woman voter and I agree.

[Tulkas]

73. I am a man, so I guess I don't really count.... but......

Even if she does become President she will always be Bill Clinton's wife.


Her success will always be his success. Her failures will always be her failures.

The larger the role he plays in the campaign the more clearly this will be seen. Today he went into casinos to talk dishwashers and bellhops into caucusing for his wife. In South Carolina he will go door to door to try and get poor black people to vote for her.

If women see her as a huge step forward for women's equality they may not have thought it through very well.

[gdaerin]

72. Yep, another women voter who is not joining the Clinton camp anytime soon, actually, ever nt

[gdaerin]

63. But if she wins the nom. I think Bloomberg will run, so

what then?

[ShadowLiberal]

71. I agree, if Hillary/McCain are the nominee's then we're screwed to 8 more years of neocon rule

[BenDavid]

75. McCain is a tired old man with no new ideas except what all

repugs offer......but hrc will have new ideas about a great variarty of things to put this country back into the game....Same old tired ideas coming from the right and women who see and feel what is going on with the economy and health care etc etc will listen to what hrc puts forth and will be more inclined to vote for her.....Kitchen table ......

Where obama will fail with mccain is his inexperience.....foreign relations etc etc and mccain can hit him harder....

so I say HRC will beat mccain because he will use the same tired old talking points......