Can Obama pull an upset and win NV even though Clinton leads in 99 of the last 100 polls?

[skipos]

pollster / date / Clinton / Obama / Edwards / Margin of victory
ReutersC-Span/Zogby 01/17 - 01/18 757 LV 45 39 6 Clinton +6.0
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 01/15 - 01/17 814 LV 42 37 12 Clinton +5.0
Mason-Dixon 01/14 - 01/16 500 LV 41 32 14 Clinton +9.0
American Res. Group 01/09 - 01/14 600 LV 35 32 25 Clinton +3.0
Research 2000 01/11 - 01/13 500 LV 30 32 27 Obama +2.0
American Res. Group 12/01 - 12/06 600 LV 45 18 14 Clinton +27.0
Mason-Dixon 12/03 - 12/05 300 LV 34 26 9 Clinton +8.0
Research 2000 11/16 - 11/19 400 LV 45 20 12 Clinton +25.0
CNN 11/09 - 11/13 389 LV 51 23 11 Clinton +28.0
Zogby 11/09 - 11/10 506 LV 37 19 15 Clinton +18.0
Mason-Dixon 10/09 - 10/11 300 LV 39 21 9 Clinton +18.0
American Res. Group 10/05 - 10/09 600 LV 51 11 14 Clinton +37.0
Research 2000 08/14 - 08/16 400 LV 33 19 15 Clinton +14.0
Mason-Dixon 06/20 - 06/22 400 LV 39 17 12 Clinton +22.0
American Res. Group 06/15 - 06/19 600 LV 40 16 16 Clinton +24.0
Mason-Dixon 04/30 - 05/02 300 RV 37 12 13 Clinton +24.0
Zogby 04/11 - 04/12 505 LV 35 21 15 Clinton +14.0
Susquehanna (R) 03/06 - 03/09 210 RV 32 17 16 Clinton +15.0
Research 2000 03/06 - 03/08 400 RV 32 20 11 Clinton +12.0
American Res. Group 12/19 - 12/23 600 LV 37 12 8 Clinton +25.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_democratic_caucus-236.html#polls'

[rox63]

1. That's what Clinton did in NH

So I don't see any reason why Obama can't do it in NV.

[ursi]

2. The Hillary supporters here have almost pushed me into the Obama camp

with the oppositional info that's been posted!

[boston bean]

3. you need to maybe read a little closer or take off the rose colored

glasses if you think Hillary's camp is the one slinging the most mud.

[rox63]

4. We'd welcome your support in Obama-land

:hi:

[Bread and Circus]

5. That's not what Clinton did.

Clinton always had a huge margin in NH except for the last 5 days (where women were under-represented in the samples of the poles) and barely squeeked by. It was a victory for Obama to come so close, but it wasn't spun that way.

[Tellurian]

6. Obama must Win Nevada..

If he doesn't, his campaign will be seriously damaged heading to NC.

I'm sure he'll pull off a Win. Obama strategists know how critical Nevada is to his viability.

[nevergiveup]

7. I like your confidence

in an Obama Nevada win. If you are correct it will be a huge upset because Nevada has always been Clinton Country. She has had a big lead in polls here forever and the demographics favor her big-time. I think it is a must win for each candidate but a slim win by either may become a wash.

[Tellurian]

8. There is a huge difference between Caucusing and voting..

The Obama Camp's operation is perfect for exploitation to the fullest of garnering caucus goers to commit to him. Actual voting is a whole different situation for the Obama Team as was evident in NH.

If Obama wins Nevada, it may be an upset for our campaign but not the end of the world as it would be vice versa. The best thing, imo, about today is results will be known early on and the tension ended. <whew> ;)

[bluedog]

9. how do they verify votes?

what happens if one says "we want a recount?"......anybody know?

[Tellurian]

12. Not all voting machines are Diebold..

We have Optical Scanning here.. Any voting machine that doesn't verify a voter's position with a receipt is undesireable!

[papau]

10. 60,000 culinary workers voting while union bosses watch in race that drew 9000 votes in 04-Obama win

In a caucus that is as fixed as this one, it is hard to see how Hillary wins without a massive rebellion of the culinary workers - either by voting for her - or more likely - by not showing up.

So I - and the rest of the world unfortunately for the Obama "expectations game" - am expecting Obama to take both NV and SC and then we see how that affects 2/5.

[Tellurian]

13. I agree..

we'll see if the Obama Team's Bag of Tricks won out soon enough..

[robbedvoter]

11. Dunno about upset. All this culinary union talk had him with a done deal

Only recently the polls were even considered here.

[GalleryGod]

14. I think the Culinary Workers Union...stumbled,here.

"too smart by one half",to wit, they "endorsed" tooooooooo late.
But..that's why we have menus at pubs..just my opinion.

More Mika...less Joe, MSNBC:P

[robcon]

15. You never know with a caucus, instead of a primary.

It could happen.