Can Hillary pull upset in Nevada where Culinary Union endorsement gave Obama decisive advantage?

[Karmadillo]

I think the polls are misleading in that Hillary might win a primary in Nevada, but the workings of a caucus give the advantage to Obama. It will be interesting to see how close Hillary can come. A strong second would be impressive.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7831.html

<edit>

Still, the Culinary endorsement could be decisive for Obama.

Here's why:

Although the union is coy about how many of its members are registered to vote, the endorsement is expected to give Obama at least 10,000 supporters in the caucus, in a contest whose turnout estimates have ranged from 28,000 to 100,000.

In a caucus, supporters of a candidate literally stand together on one side of the room, demonstrating to everyone who is supporting whom. Many Strip shift workers, Culinary workers, will be voting at so-called "at-large" caucus sites on the Strip.

This means Culinary members, for whom unity is a creed, will be able to enforce discipline. Clinton can no longer expect to win many delegates at those at-large sites.

The infusion of locked-down voters is only the most obvious benefit, however.

more...

[skipos]

1. Yeah, it will be such an upset if the person who was polling 20% ahead of Obama

a few weeks ago wins.
:eyes:

[wndycty]

2. Spin, spin, spin. . .she is leading in the polls and is supposed to win. . .

So no one is buying the your positioning her for an upset. She is supposed to win this race.

[trumad]

3. That's like saying the Patriots will upset the Chargers this weekend.

[Adelante]

4. Heh, big upset

She's had it locked down in Nevada since early last year. She's got the political establishment and the business establishment and the unions who aren't the Culinary Workers -- one hit and she folds? I seriously doubt it. Good try, though, I guess.

[glowing]

5. What upset... someone ahead winning, now that's a shocker.

[BeyondGeography]

6. And, to think, she did it all without the support of the party there...wait

Democratic Endorsements
Hillary Rodham Clinton
10 (of 18) of Democratic endorsements

Bob Coffin State Senator (D) (Jan. 10, 2008)
John Oceguera State Representative (D)
William Horne State Representative (D)
Bernice Matthews State Senator (D)
Morse Arberry State Representative (D)
Kathy McClain State Representative (D)
Harry Mortenson State Representative (D)
Dina Titus State Senator (D)
Joyce Woodhouse State Representative (D)
Susan Gerhardt State Representative (D)

John Edwards
5 (of 18) of Democratic endorsements

RoseMary Womack State Representative (D)
Peggy Pierce State Representative (D)
Richard "Tick" Segerblom State Representative (D)
Joe Hogan State Representative (D)
David Bobzien State Representative (D)

Barack Obama
3 (of 18) of Democratic endorsements

Sheila Leslie State Representative (D)
Steven A. Horsford State Senator (D)
Harvey Munford State Representative (D)

Plus, Harry Reid's son runs her campaign there. Of course, Harry has stayed out of it, you know. Hasn't even offered any behind-the-scenes help or anything. Yeah.

[Karmadillo]

7. Surely the pessimism on this thread is unjustified. Obama had a decisive advantage. Has he frittered

it away?

[Mass]

8. Upset. She is the favorite in NV, The Reid machine has been campaigning for her for months.