I actually do think it's over.

[cali]

I think Hillary easily takes NV. And that there's never been a serious threat to her there. As recently as 1 month ago, she led there by double digits.

I think this would be the case regardless of whether JE was in the race or not. In fact, I think her margin of victory would be in the double digits were he not in it. It's a huge mistake to see the combined Edwards/Obama vote as an anti-Hillary vote instead of a pro-Edwards and pro-Obama vote.

Like it or not, she's run a hell of a campaign and largely controlled just about everything about the the primaries. I don't much like quite a bit about it, but that doesn't prevent me from seeing how effective her campaign has been.

I just hope she doesn't have to run against McCain because I do think he can beat her fairly easily. If she faces Romney or Huckabee she'll beat them. Time to root for one of them.

[meegbear]

1. Never say die cali!

All 3 have a shot here - I don't trust in polls or opinions.

[FrenchieCat]

2. I thought that there was going to be a delegate count?

Shit, I hope what you are saying is not true. I don't think I can take it. I could barely listen to her today on C-span, as she drone on and on.....

[jpgray]

3. She has a good chance of winning, but it's not over yet in my view.

Obama still has a strong chance to take the nom.

[cali]

4. I kind of fall into the camp that NV really is a "tell"

and if I'm right and she does win there, I do believe that she'll get the lions share of votes on 2/5

[ellisonz]

South Carolina!

[Yukari Yakumo]

21. I'm gonna flamed for saying this...

SC has a disproportionally larger Af-Amer.n population when compared to most other states.

Florida, though meaningless where it comes to delegates, might a a good barometer. No campaigning and everyone is on the ballot.

[ellisonz]

26. Mo-mentum.

Florida doesn't count and the media will treat it as such. IMHO, whoever wins CA and more than half of the other states excluding NY and IL wins.

[jackson_dem]

8. What is your opinion if she wins but it is close?

Then there is South Carolina which Obama should win since the white vote is being split three ways.

[cali]

16. If it's within 3 points or so

I think it's still possible- but perhaps not probable that he can win. If it's 7+ points, I think that's likely a mortal blow. SC is probably going to go to Obama, but it won't be enough to propel him to needed wins on 2/5.

[jackson_dem]

22. Why are you so pessimistic?

You are a staunch Obama supporter so this is surprising. I don't think a seven point loss hurts him. Hillary always had a big lead there. In fact, Obama was on par with Edwards in most Nevada polling in 2007.

[Perry Logan]

5. Does this mean more or fewer false accusations of "Rovean politics" against Hillary's campaign?

[cali]

10. I've never compared Hillary's campaing to rovian politics

doesn't mean I don't find her campaign repugnant. I do. But one good thing her ethical lapses indicate is that she'll fight as dirty as the repukes in the general. Sorry, but the Clintons are NOT known for their high ethical standards.

I'll vote for her- holding my nose and suppressing my gag reflex. Don't want to puke on the gym floor.

[Perry Logan]

18. Your statement about the Clintons' ethical standards is false.

Bill Clinton's was the cleanest administration of the 20th century. False accusations of lying do not make someone a liar.

[sunonmars]

24. At least with the clinton administration

He actually made his staff testify in front of congress, when its a republican administration, they have to be dragged, kicking and screaming

[cali]

25. provide ANY evidence that Clinton's administration was the

"cleanest" in the 20th century- but first provide a definition by what you mean. And Clinton was found GUILTY of perjury- in case you don't recall.

[Perry Logan]

27. Since every statement about Clinton made by Obama people is a lie, I'm not obliged to answer.

[cali]

31. do you realize how

lame you sound? You make a lying accusation and think that's an argument? Yeah, that's really effective. I doubt you actually know how to write a complete paragraph. You never have here.

[musicblind]

42. ...

Be a little more fair to Cali. Cali has tried to be fair to us.

[sunonmars]

28. haha the GOP caucus is 9am

guess theres will be a low turnout.

At least the dems had the sense to pick a proper time at the weekend.

[cali]

32. is it really?

what morons.

[sunonmars]

34. They couldnt even organize that properly

[libbygurl]

57. Big deal. Perjury over a private extramarital affair. nt

[redwitch]

58. So you won't be rooting for the rethug as stated above?

n/t

[LeftCoast]

6. I still think it's a bit early to call it

I'd wait until after the 2/5 primaries. Don't forget, these aren't winner-take-all races. The delegates will keep adding up and this thing might still lead to a convention fight.

[jpgray]

9. As bad as that could be for the party's GE early campaign plans, that would be fun to watch

I would probably avoid DU on that day. :D

[LeftCoast]

14. Can you imagine? GD and GDP would be a bloodbath that day!

I agree though...it'd be bad for the GE, but it sure would be interesting to watch!

[sunonmars]

36. I honestly think that the DNC will force a winner come 06/02

I think they will want to settle this so as they can get on with the GE plans. I can't imagine them allowing a protracted all out motherfucker of a battle. There will be some sort of backroom deal done.

Perhaps the whole point was that if there was a dispute over the first 4 primaries then Tsunami Tuesday would finish it.

[FrenchieCat]

7. I hope Obama caucus goers don't read this and decide to stay home.....

saying what the hell.

You're are taking away my hope.

Stop it!

[cali]

11. Sorry, I don't want to take your hope away

and I don't think my post will have any effect on Obama voters in NV today. I just like to be prepared- and I don't believe in ducking reality.

[FrenchieCat]

17. Hell, those Reagan posts from here are now an AP story....

so I wouldn't be so sure.

But this pronouncement it is hell of depressing, and me and other Obama supporters aren't possibly in the mood for this right now.

We are going to be fired and ready to go...till they take us down.

[Bodhi BloodWave]

19. one of my fav quotes fit quite well here

Expect the worst, but hope for the best

[sandnsea]

23. Prepare for the worst,

hope for the best. Something about a quote that promotes taking action that makes me feel better.

[ellisonz]

12. As goes Iowa, goes Nevada.

This is the true nature of the caucus system.

[jackson_dem]

15. Jerry Brown won Nevada. He was the "third" candidate in 1992 and ignored by the media at the time

;)

[sunonmars]

13. TBH I have no idea whats going to happen anymore

If there is a convincing win tonight and I only say if, then you may be right. It would just suddenly become really really hard for him.

SC well the expectation bar is lifted so high for Obama in SC now also that could be a problem if Hillary comes anywhere close.

Hillary has the stamina to run this to the end and wear Obama down even if she loses Nevada.

As of now, I have no idea anymore, this primary season has been the most wearing I've ever and I'm not sure taking this all the way to the convention is wise, we might just wear everybody right out.

Edwards need to stop now I think, its just not viable for him, let the 2 beasts go at it. Lets face it guys, its not going to be him sitting in the WH come 2009.

I think tbh come 5/2. Either Clinton or Obama has to stand down for the sake of everyone and get on the GE trail.

[sandnsea]

20. I think Super Tuesday will surprise

He'll do fine tomorrow, win SC, and then flip the national switch and be everywhere and the fun will begin. Hang in there!

[Perry Logan]

29. Maybe a few more bullshit accusations against Hillary will put you over the top.

[cali]

35. oooh, another

post from you that not only makes no sense, but demonstrates that you simply toss out inane one liners. You are sooo formidable.

[NoBorders]

30. I don't think NV is make or break

I think Hillary wins NV, Barack wins SC, and then it's shear madness into 2/5.

[zulchzulu]

33. Not if I can help it...

I think the race won't be decided until Wisconsin, which is February 19th. That will be a good thing because the Obama victory party will be in Madison! Gobama!!!!

[xchrom]

37. i can not abide obama -- but i think you are worng.

the super caucuses being held in the casinos favor obama -- and his folks turning out.

[cali]

38. i don't agree

he doesn't have a lock on the CWU workers- and they aren't the only people eligible to vote at the at-large caucus sites. In addition, he likely won't do well outside of Clark County.

[xchrom]

40. the super causes will count by as much as five times as the caucuses

held outside of las vegas.

the culinary workers will by and large go with obama.

like i said -- i can't abide him -- but i think circumstance favors him -- maybe not by a lot -- but right now -- if i were a betting man -- i'd go with obama.

[rucky]

39. I never thought I'd say this...

but I agree with you 100%

[jefferson_dem]

41. Hillary has always had NV in the bag.

I'm just hoping Obama can make it close. Lower single-digits behind and he will have exceeded expectations...and I'll be happy.

[flpoljunkie]

43. Well, I don't! No one has a clue how many will show up to caucus today in NV. Obama will win SC!

I think the Culinary Workers will turn out for Obama today in force. GOBAMA!

[OHdem10]

44. McCain will be formidible but HRC is the only candidate who

has a chance against McCain.

[robbedvoter]

55. Mccain is a joke! 100 years in Iraq - to a country tired of war - like a lead baloon...

[avrdream]

45. Are you trying to punk us as well?

Fool me once, shame on you.....you know the drill.

None of us Clinton supporters are counting our chickens before they hatch. Nor should you.

[cali]

46. Am I pretending to be a Clinton supporter?

No? Then just how would I be punking you? I'm just giving my assessment.

[JohnnyLib2]

47. FWIW, my relatives in NV, who vote across the spectrum,

are saying that some Repub. friends are switching registration for the day to caucus, then will switch back. It's hard to factor that in. The consistent story I get is that Clinton and Obama have blanketed even small towns, creating a lot of excitement where there usually isn't any. (The Elko NV threat last night was an example). Mostly I hear that Obama gets bigger crowds, but many are too young to vote.

Upshot: I'm a Hillary supporter who agrees with Cali on this one, but think it will be very close and Obama might pull ahead.

Exciting day....

[EV_Ares]

48. You may unfortunately be right but remember it is not over until it is over. Who

knows what can occur in the next day or two. There are so many negatives about Hillary and yes, her up against McCain does not show real promise, every poll I have seen shows McCain winning against her, but close. It is strange as Edwards is still the only candidate that shows beating any of the republican candidates. The whole thing is so strange, have no idea what the end result will be.

Its not over until its over.

[robbedvoter]

49. McCain would beat Hillary? With "the hug" plastered everywhere?

I think ANY of our candidates can beat any of theirs.
Not so sure if this is over or not - but I don't see McCain as such a danger - to any of ours, including Gravel and DK.

Should Hillary be our nominee, she'd continue what she hinted in the last debate - run against Bush - with the GOP candidate presented as his flunkie. It worked brilliantly for her in the first senate race - when Bush was far less reviled.

[Inuca]

50. Yes, he could

DU is not the US. I think he is by far the most risky possible rep nominee for any of the dems. I'll keep my fingers crossed for a loss today in SC.

[robbedvoter]

53. Also McCain 2008 is not McCain 2000 (who was also inflated by the MSM)

I can't believe everyone forgot his demented statements and senile appearances lately. he's like Raygun - when he frigging left the office! "My friends..":puke:

[book_worm]

51. No, Hill will take NV (but not by double digits) and Obama SC

then California on Super Tuesday will be decisive.

[rox63]

52. I disagree - Obama will win SC

I don't think this will be decided until Super Tuesday.

[MoonRiver]

54. Actually, one, of the several reasons, I am now supporting her

is that I think she has a much better chance of beating McCain than Obama. Obama could take on Romney pretty effectively, but McCain is another matter, imho.

[alcibiades_mystery]

56. It's been over.

Just sayin...

[cloudythescribbler]

59. The real problem is the SUPER front-loading of the primaries on Tsunami Tuesday ...

otherwise, over time, a strong insurgent candidate like Obama could win -- with talent. But the obstacles in the scheduling of the primaries other than to the presumptive nominee when the primary schedule was set up are all but prohibitive.

I can't tell you how totally pissed I will be if HRC gets the nomination and then loses to some Repug like McCain. This country deserves better, more progressive leadership.