SC POLLS: New ones show Obama with 9 and 13 point lead

[jefferson_dem]

Obama 40 (+12), Hillary 31 (+5), Edwards 13 (-5)

400 likely Democratic primary voters were interviewed by telephone January 14-16, 2008 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. The margin for error is plus or minus 5%.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080117_Dem_Primary_Poll_1-08_Mason-Dixon.pdf

***

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Barack Obama has regained a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in South Carolina’s Democratic Presidential Primary.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in South Carolina shows Obama earning 44% of the vote, Clinton attracting 31%, and John Edwards at 15%. This is the third poll out of four conducted in recent weeks showing Obama with either a 12 or 13 percentage point lead. However, last weekend, Clinton had closed the gap to five percentage points. At that time, Rasmussen Reports noted that her support was less solid than Obama’s.

It is unclear whether Clinton gained ground as the result of a bounce from her New Hampshire victory or if the apparent gains were merely statistical noise caused by movement within the margin of sampling error.

What is clear is that Obama is increasing his support among African-American voters who make up roughly half of Democratic Primary Voters in South Carolina. Obama now leads Clinton 64% to 20% among African-Americans in the Palmetto State. This is similar to the racial divide found in national polling.

Obama’s 44-point advantage among African-Americans is nearly double his 23-point edge in the previous survey. Clinton now leads Obama 44% to 20% among white voters in the state with John Edwards picking up 26% of that vote.

By a 43% to 31% margin, African-American primary voters say that most Americans are racist. By a 57% to 22% margin, white primary voters in South Carolina disagree.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Democratic Primary Voters consider the economy their most important voting issue. Twenty-three percent (23%) say it’s the War in Iraq while 11% name health care

<SNIP>

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_democratic_primary

[Unsane]

1. A real lead for real change

[THUNDER HANDS]

2. a poll of 400 people?

I don't know how accurate that is.

[sunonmars]

3. yeah 400 people

thats way to low to get accuracy.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

4. probably accurate enough. That sounds about right. nt

[Hawkowl]

9. Very accurate

Statistics say that even a sample of about 40 is very accurate--if it is truly conducted randomly among the total sample population. 400 would be plenty enough to get an accurate picture of what SC voters are thinking at this particular point in time.

The predictive value of such polls for a very volatile contest a few weeks away is highly inaccurate. About the most you could infer is that Obama is increasingly his lead. In other words he is trending up.

To sum up, the direction of the polls are probably highly accurate, but the magnitude of the lead varies so much as to be virtually meaningless.

[suston96]

5. Wow! Just like New Hampshire......

[Bicoastal]

6. He's been in the lead for weeks in SC; in NH, he was in the lead for about

5 minutes.

Don't kid yourself.

[aquart]

7. Nah. He'll win. Divide and conquer.

Not exactly a NEW strategy.

[AwareOne]

8. Really? Nothing like watching the Democratic party commit

suicide in slow motion. Folks, may I make one more appeal to reason? Please stop nominating the candidates who will go down in flames in the general election. The Republicans would love to run against Hillary or Obama, love to. The one they fear and the only one who will win a general election is Edwards! How many times do you have to have your nose rubbed in it before you understand? You are handing an ignorant, racist, bigoted electorate a victory on a silver platter once again. The person who raises his hand to be sworn in next year is going to be white and male, just like every other president in the history of our country. I know that sounds harsh, but it is the truth. The only question is will it be Edwards or a Republican clown who will give us four more years of war and economic ruin. Why does everyone want to hit a grand slam home run when all we need is a base hit?

[Sulawesi]

10. Are the Eagles in the playoffs? Didn't think so nt

[Adelante]

12. Nobody fears Edwards

Nobody.

[Milo_Bloom]

13. Fear Edwards? LOL

I hardly doubt they fear a candidate who is running against his own record.

Edwards wouldn't stand a chance in a general election.

[WI_DEM]

11. will this will be interesting with Nevada and South Carolina.