Where do you think we will get the votes

[floridablue]

I looked at the American Research Groups chart of the 2004 electorial vote. We either need Florida, or Ohio, or a combination of two smaller states to equal 18 electorials. Where do you think which candidate could pick up those votes?

[EFerrari]

1. We have the votes. They're just not COUNTED.

Gore won Florida.

Kerry won Ohio.

Hello?

No matter how good our candidates are at picking up votes, it does no good if the Republics steal them in full view of a complicit media.

[Hydra]

2. Exactly

it doesn't matter if we take 95%, if they take 46% of that for themselves and say that we were "divided" by something.

"Those who cast the Votes, they decide nothing. Those who count the votes, they decide everything."

Joseph Stalin

[dmallind]

3. I don't see any Dem losing in OH

McCain narrowly leads BO and HRC in the latest polls but that's before a national election which would focus on his real support for continuing the war (not HRC's imaginary support) and have him vastly outfunded and prone to subtle attacks on age and health (yes somebody will do it). No other Rep candidate leads any of ours and none of theirs at all beats Edwards. Blackwell's gone and OH was one of the few places where election irregularities got some credibility among the masses, so there will be hypervigilance and sensitivity this time.

I wouldn't QUITE bet the farm on OH but I'd bet the "back 40".

FL isn't unlikely either, and neither are IA, NH, NM and MO. VA isn't out of the question either.

The math and indicators look good - for any of the viable three. (OK 2.5 but I gotta be positive for now!)

[EFerrari]

4. You have no idea what will happen in OH or FL

Their election systems are in flux, in recovery and still not safe from rigging.

The rest of the states you mention aren't any further along.

There is no solid math for insecure voting systems -- unless you're a rigger.

[dmallind]

5. Well true up to a point

but again OH (and FL although with less mass "sympathy") will be more resilient to hackery than before simply because of heightened sensitivity like yours. Sure it's possible a 12 pt Dem lead becomes a Republican landslide because of Diebold, but it's not in my opinion all that likely in OH this time (PA on the other hand....I suspect any chicanery will look for plausible deniability in a close but currently blue state rather than go to the same vigilant well).

But do I KNOW? Nah - but then if people were restricted to speaken only about what they KNOW about future outcomes in election cycles, we'd not have much to talk about.

Still - I can't see how any Dem loses OH without something dramatic changing.

[wuushew]

6. Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado would give you 274

Makes you wish Colorado would have passed that measure to split its electoral votes in 2004. I am assuming Iowa is not dumb enough to vote Repuke again.

Of course if McCain gets the GOP nomination NH might go red and result in a 269 tie.