ABC/WaPo National Poll: Clinton 42 (-11), Obama 37 (+14), Edwards 11 (unchanged)

[BeyondGeography]

Huge shift in the black vote nationally:

Transformed by Iowa and N.H., '08 Kicks Off as a Free-for-All

Iowa and New Hampshire have transformed the 2008 presidential race into a free-for-all, vaulting John McCain past longtime frontrunner Rudy Giuliani in the Republican contest and fueling a strong challenge to Hillary Clinton by Barack Obama among Democrats.

McCain's victory in New Hampshire has sharply boosted views of his qualifications and abilities alike: His rating within his party as its most electable contender has tripled; as strongest leader, it's doubled; and he's scored double-digit gains in trust to handle Iraq and terrorism. He's climbed into the lead in overall vote preference for the first time in ABC News/Washington Post polls in the 2008 campaign.

Obama likewise is reaping benefits from winning the Iowa caucuses and coming within two points of Clinton in New Hampshire. He now challenges her as the most electable candidate. He's severely eroded her reputation as its strongest leader and sharply improved his trust to handle key issues. And in overall preference Clinton and Obama now are all but tied, 42-37 percent among likely voters, a dramatic tightening.

An important question is how well both McCain and Obama's newfound popularity translates in the state-by-state slog of primaries. McCain's gained more ground among independents and moderates than among the conservatives and mainline Republicans at the party's core -- the bridge he failed to cross in 2000. And his age is a potential problem; three in 10 Americans say it dampens their enthusiasm for him.

Like McCain, Obama's gains have come more among independents than among his party's regulars, and he remains notably vulnerable on experience. But he's also soared in a key Democratic group -- African-Americans, who've switched from favoring Clinton by 52-39 percent a month ago to an even larger preference for Obama, 60-32 percent, today.

While Obama also has drawn much closer among whites, preferences of blacks are highly significant in some upcoming races; in the past blacks have accounted for 47 percent of Democratic voters in South Carolina (Jan. 26) and Georgia (Feb. 5), 46 percent in Louisiana (Feb. 9) and more than a third in Virginia and Maryland (Feb. 12)...

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4128343&page=1

[Bicoastal]

1. WOW. No one can deny that this is shaping up to be competitive.

The Hillary people will point to NH as an example of how misleading polls are, as they've been doing ever since her dramatic win in that state...

...but when I then pointed to the National Polls, where Hillary has always been way ahead, they've ALSO always told me that the National Polls are usually way more accurate.

Well, Obama gaining 14% to Hillary's loss of 11% smells accurate--and it IS a big deal. Shame about Edwards, though.

[ellisonz]

2. GOBAMA!