Real Clear Politics Poll: South Carolina

[ncabot22]

The averages:

RCP Average 01/04 - 01/09 - 44.0 31.0 15.3 Obama +13.0

Rasmussen 01/09 - 01/09 494 LV 42 30 15 Obama +12.0

InsiderAdvantage 01/07 - 01/07 393 LV 40 33 15 Obama +7.0

SurveyUSA 01/04 - 01/06 579 LV 50 30 16 Obama +20.0

At stake: 45 delegates

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc

[origin1286]

1. lolpolls

But if Obama wins by anything close to the SurveyUSA count, it will be a huge boost going into February 5th. If he wins Nevada and then wins SC by close to 20, Obama is going to be the nominee unless he "likable enoughs" it away.

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. sort of agree with you....

Edwards & Obama have to realize that you can't appear to be dissing a sitting Senator and former First Lady on national TV (just ask Rick Lazio). Even if they have to "throw up in their mouths a little bit", they have to show her some respect, or the narrative will always be that the two guys ganged up on the girl.

In all honesty and objectivity, that was not Obama's finest hour.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Even if Obama wins SC by 5%, if he takes both states, he'll be close to locking it up.

Same with Clinton, though. If she wins both states, she'll walk to the nomination.

[origin1286]

7. If Clinton takes SC

It's game over.

[elizm]

9. If Clinton takes South Carolina....

Somebody needs to get down here quick and open an investigation. I can tell you there is no way in hell she wins SC 'legitimately'. I was at the rally in Charleston on Thursday when 4,500 people showed up in the middle of a weekday in downtown Charleston, and I can assure not a one of them was 'bussed in' as the Clinton people like to claim. The tide was beginning to turn even before he won Iowa....South Carolina is Obama's all the way.

[hayu_lol]

2. That sounds pretty close to what most of us expect...

Obama should be the leader in SC.

Hillary is not as popular there and has not done as much work in the state.

For some reason, are SC and NC in competition with each other. There appears to be some animosity there against Edwards. Anyone have an answer?

[skipos]

3. I doubt there is animosity toward him. He won SC in 2004 with 45%

But he focused most of his energy on Iowa in 2008, and it did't pay off very well. Alas, he won't win SC.

[dkf]

6. Hillary not doing herself any favors there.

I feel very sad at where she is going with her campaign.

[jzodda]

8. Obama wins SC, Clinton wins Nevada: Thats my prediction

[Yael]

10. So you think the lawsuit is going to undo the caucus design?

[Gloria]

11. And we all lose....

[CoffeeCat]

12. We haven't seen any recent NV polls...

...have we?

Contrary to the NH debacle, polls are still important and can give us an
idea of what is going on in the state.

I heard that the NV race, despite the lack of polling, was very tight in NV.

I think Clinton has a slight advantage going in, because of the momentum
she gained from NH. However, this lawsuit--might taint her a bit, because
it's people on her side driving this effort. Any effort to prevent people
from voting can be seen as scurrilous.

I think Obama's endorsements will work to his favor.

It will all depend on how they are received in NV during the next few days.

It's looking to be a close race, and a very interesting battleground state.

[jaysunb]

13. Every body is at the casino & unable to answer

the phone. :evilgrin:

[antiimperialist]

14. what the hell is a Real Clear Politics poll?

Real Clear Politics does not poll. It averages polls.