No 'Bradley' effect in NH polls/vote

[NoBorders]

I have to admit I thought that was the main reason for the polls being so wrong, but a good case debunking that is made here:


SNIP
Still, let's assume for the sake of argument that Kohut is right about New Hampshire's downscale white Democrats. Were they really underrepresented in the polls? If they were, then one would expect that the pre-election polls would overstate Obama's support and understate Clinton's among downscale white Democrats--and that the more extensive post-election polls would show a dramatic rise in Clinton's support, and a fall in Obama's among these voters.

But nothing of the kind took place.
SNIP

More here:
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=17dabbce-95ad-40c1-805c-5c12d0158ba8

[bluestateguy]

1. A plurality of white men voted for Obama, not Hillary.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHDEM

38%-30% in favor of Obama.

[ordinaryaveragegirl]

2. It's all about turnout...

Obama's numbers stayed the same, Edwards' dropped slightly, and Hillary's surged. There's no rhyme or reason, it's who went to the polls. The Bradley effect was dismissed almost as soon as it was mentioned.

[earthside]

3. The Article Assumes ...

... that educated white women aren't subject to the 'Bradley effect'.

I would assert the opposite. I wonder if anyone has ever done a study on how college educated, Caucasian women respond to polling questions and how they actually vote when there is an African-American on the ballot. My point being that I really wouldn't expect them to behave any differently than anyone else.

[adapa]

4. Talking to a lot of NH voters; it's was the the humanizing moment at the diner

I've been listening to the talking heads & NPR way too much lately but an odd trend is surfacing.

When the guy's talk about the polling mess up in NH, they by & large attribute it to NH residents being raciest. Interesting point you bring up about an under representation of poorer voters. I have to say tho- when I talk to friends & acquaintances, they all say it was a last min surge for Hillary.

When women talking heads speak, they attribute Clinton's win to a last min surge.
Hillary not only said why she wanted to be president but also said she cared about our problems. No more the cold Ice woman, She hears us. The guys just don't get how much that spoke to all the caregivers out here. By caregivers, I'm talking all the women who take care of other people, family, parents, friends etc all.

The exit polls says
Hillary cares about people 41% to Obama's 19%
Hillary won married mom's 42% to Obama's 34%
Hillary won unmaried & w/out kids women 49% to Obama's 31%
Hillary won white women 46% to obama 33%
Hillary won non-white women 50% to Obama's 38%

You can laugh all you want, guys, but when Hillary explained why she wanted to be Prez in that heartfelt moment in the diner, the race changed. Now maybe the poorer voters were under represented in the polling, I can certainly believe that! But the pollsters also stopped polling on Sunday & didn't catch the diner moment.

It's very odd to me that the male talking heads don't listen to the women talking heads about why the polls were wrong.

[Marrah_G]

5. If Edwards had won you could think "maybe it was the bradley effect"

But considerings it was a woman who won and the white male lost, the Bradley effect becomes far less likely.

[Bitwit1234]

6. Bradley lost two bids for the presidency. What does that tell you.

[Vanje]

7. Different Bradley

Tom Bradley , mayor of LA, an African American is the "Bradley effect " guy.

Bill Bradley , a basketball player, and really tall white guy ran for president.