John Edwards can win states (yes, with a s!) on Super Tuesday. Every JRE supporter should read this!

[jackson_dem]

I had grims hopes about Super Tuesday except for Oklahoma. After discussing it in another thread and looking at the data I am confident Edwards will win states on Super Tuesday. I want every Edwards supporter to read this if only to improve our spirits and morale. THIS IS NOT OVER. I request that you spread this around the net' to Edwardians, not because I have a crystal ball or anything but because this is based on raw data.

A likely win for Edwards: Oklahoma.

Edwards lost Oklahoma by less than a percentage point in 2004 despite Wes Clark targeting it and Edwards focusing on South Carolina on Mini Tuesday. Like Iowa has shown, where Edwards was strong in 2004 he has a fiercely loyal following.

The last poll had Edwards at 25% and Hillary at 34%. Obama lagged at 15%. This poll was at the height of Hillary's inevitably so it should be closer now. The poll average in OK (excluding the iffy ARG whose poll was 11 months ago anyway) is Edwards 26%, Hillary 30%. Obama is a non-factor in Oklahoma. He consistently polls between 13-15%.

You can bet the Edwards campaign will be targeting Oklahoma like a laser beam on Super Tuesday and this should pay off with a victory. The Clinton and Obama campaigns have no reason to emphasize Oklahoma especially since California and New York are at stake.

States where Edwards has a good chance of winning

New Mexico

Richardson led in NM but never by much and he is now gone. The last NM poll showed Edwards only five points behind Hillary and one behind Obama. The other NM poll is an ARG one from over a year ago. Even in that Edwards was within ten of Hillary.

Colorado

There has been only one non-ARG poll in CO. It was done in September and showed a much closer race than ARG. Clinton led at 29% but Edwards and Obama were tied at 23%.

Kansas

Edwards 21%, Obama 22%, Hillary 27%.

Edwards should definitely target CO and KA. He should poll NM and see how the landscape looks without Richardson. His support will likely split basically evenly among the candidates so John should remain strong there and should target it too.

States that are possibilities but will be tough

Massachusetts

Edwards was a point ahead of Obama and thirteen behind Hillary. The poll was done in April. If Edwards has gained a little ground since then it would be possible for him to target MA and pull off an upset in a significant state. If he is still 13 behind they should not concentrate on it.

The caveat with Massachusetts is that it is a substantial and expensive state. I expect one or both of the $100 million candidates to compete fiercely in the Bay State.

Tennessee

Edwards 20%, Obama 20% Hillary 35%. This was from May. TN is possible if, like MA, Edwards has closed the gap a bit since then. If he has he can target this and use being from the South to potentially pull off an upset here.

Missouri

Edwards won 25 or 26% of the vote in MS in 2004. The only non-ARG poll had Hillary at 36% in November, Obama at 21% and Edwards at 20%. Like Mass. and Tenn. it depends on if Edwards caught up to Hillary. He does have a loyal base to start from here.

Since MS and MA are, while possibilities, very low possibilities I excluded them from my ideal scenario below.

The exception

Edwards nearly won Georgia in 2004 but is unlikely to do so next month because of his lack of black support due to Obama and Hillary running this time.

How does he win?

Two dozens states will vote on Super Tuesday. This includes heavyweights like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. The campaigns will have to judiciously spend their resources. Do you really think Obama is going to pour money into Oklahoma? Or Hillary in Kansas? With targeting, smart campaigning Edwards will carry a few of these states. If Edwards can win Oklahoma and another state or two he stays alive. He may even get a significant bounce coming out of Super Tuesday since the media would be shocked that a candidate they declared dead won states. This depends on what happens to the other two. If they split the Super Tuesday states it is not good for Edwards. He needs one of the two to falter on Super Tuesday. That would leave him and the overall winner with momentum and may even cause one of the $100 million candidates to quit amid pressure for the party.

Edwards will also need a few strong second places and these states are at the top of the list of where he can get them. Any state where he is ahead of Obama is a great sign and an indicator of significant inherent strength for John Edwards in that state in light of the media blackout. If he is ahead or tied with Obama despite the media blackout he should beat him if he targets it.

Realistic scenario

He wins Oklahoma and maybe one or two other states. He has a few strong second place finishes, some bad third places, but most states will be like New Hampshire. This would still be enough to go on and may even provide him with momentum coming out of Super Tuesday because of the media being shocked that John who? actually was not only still alive but running and won a few states. I talk about the media more later.

Ideal scenario for Edwards

The ideal scenario for Edwards would be winning Oklahoma, Missouri, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Tennessee and Obama winning a similar number of states. That would give Clinton about a dozen wins, including New York and California and pressure (under the ideal scenario) Obama to quit. Obama quits under party pressure and Edwards has momentum as someone who the media ignored got a couple of surprise wins and he has a chance to go up against Hillary. They media will have to report on Edwards wins and they will all be collectively shocked by it. They are so caught up in the Obama Hillary thing that some newspapers and even Time magazine reported Edwards as having a surprise second in Iowa! Imagine their shock if Edwards wins states.

National primary and John's resiliency despite the MSM blackout)

Super Tuesday is a national primary. The national numbers matter. Right now the "poll of polls" shows Hillary at 37, Obama at 30, and Edwards a strong third at 18% and up from 13-14%. You read correctly. Edwards is only 12% behind the $100 million new JFK who has an ability to inspire that mortals like Edwards and Hillary don't have. Bear in mind 18% is an average. There will be states where Edwards will do much better. More importantly this shows Edwards has a loyal base of support that is still with him despite the media's best efforts to usher him out the door. He will win a lot of delegates on Super Tuesday. He won't win as much as the $200 million duo but he will win a significant number and no one will get a majority on Super Tuesday. This means the race will be very much alive on February 6 and Edwards will be part of the mix, unless the worst case scenario occurs and he goes winless and gets about 11% on average.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#New_Mexico

[cali]

1. You're basing practically all of your hopes on polls that are as old

as 10 months and nothing of recent vintage. I do think that Edwards has a chance in OK, but he doesn't have one in any of the New England states. MA? No way. Even in my state of Vermont, there's not much support for him, and if he can't win or do well in a state that embodies progressivism and has the most populist Senator in the country, it's hard to see his message succeeding anywhere in New England or the Northeast.

[jackson_dem]

2. Some of the polls are fairly recent

Besides there is nothing to indicate a seismic shift against Edwards since the last poll, whether it was in December of May. Edwards' national numbers have been about the same over the past three years. Pollster.com has a chart of polls since the end of 2004. Edwards' peaks are the end of 2004 and today after a recent uptick. If anything he should be doing better in those states now than he was last year given his national trend.

The only Vermont poll is an ARG one but it had Hillary ahead by 18 with Edwards five behind Obama. Edwards has no chance in Vermont but my original post shows states where Edwards has a real chance.

The Edwards campaign should poll MA. If he is within the single digits they should consider going for it. All we can consider right now is the lone poll we have for MA and in it he is ahead of the great progressive HOPE, the $100 million new JFK. That is a sign of Edwards' strength in Mass. Despite this of the states I listed MA is the least likely win for Edwards. It would probably be cost effective for Edwards to cede MA and target some of the other states on the list that the $200 million candidates won't pour resources into. One, or both since Obama has Patrick behind him, will compete for MA.

[AP]

3. Why don't you think he has a chance in OK?

[saracat]

4. Very interesting.Another state I think he might have a chance in but needs to give some attention to...

now that Richardson is out is Arizona. I don't know how he is polling but every straw poll I have attended has him doing well.The problem here is Hillary and Barak both have offices and the Edwards Campaign has nothing.We don't even have campaign materials!

[whatdoyouthink]

5. I agree

The people In Arizona - are More Independent - and like Guy's/Gal's that roll up there sleeve type
Edwards will do good here (hope WIN)

I,m in a cpl of groups ! Of One corp's...Here maybe we can get you some campaign stuff / etc...Though I,m sure Your in one corps as well?

Go John

[saracat]

6. I am in several and have never been contacted about a meeting

[jackson_dem]

7. Hillary has a big lead in AZ

Edwards evidently has strength in the Midwest based on his Oklahoma and Kansas numbers, and even Missouri. Maybe he can grab another win by targeting another Midwestern state on Super Tuesday? This is probably because of rural voters.