Why is Edwards running a distant 3rd in SC, when he won it in 2004 with 45% of the vote?

[skipos]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html

My feeling is that he put almost all of his resources into Iowa this time around. Is that right?
FYI, I would be happy with either Obama or Edwards as our nominee.

[MadBadger]

1. That is right, plus he really doesnt get much if of the African American Support.

[tritsofme]

2. The black vote is breaking hard for Obama and Clinton leaving Edwards in

the dust in this state.

Edwards can't compete if he can't get a big piece of the black vote in NC.

[surfermaw]

13. You are right tritsofme ...very very right on.

[Dawgs]

3. Better candidates.

[2rth2pwr]

4. Familiarity?

:think:

[alteredstate]

5. Because the Obama camp has the best staffers and volunteers in the United States. n/t

[elizm]

12. Absolutley!! :)

:toast:

[SCDem]

16. Agree!

They were here early and hitting the pavement early and are organized and relying on the people of the region not just the "professionals"

[Anouka]

6. Iowa happened

If New Hampshire happens for Obama.....there's going to be a major change in South Carolina. some black blogs are already reporting about the cracks in the of the old system of 'patronage' after Iowa.

If New Hampshire happens for Obama, Edwards isn't the only one who will have to worry about 'where did my support go?' (and I'm not talking about Hillary Clinton)

[skipos]

7. These poll averages are before Iowa

Though I don't see Edwards getting a bounce down there after his 2nd place IA showing.

[Captain Hilts]

8. He's barely winning his own state. He shouldn't have to put that much into SC. nt

[skipos]

9. Well, when you have a candidate well funded, highly publicized candidate like Hillary

I am guessing many candidates might lose their own homestates. Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel never were leading in their homestates (that I saw).
The SC thing seems like a bad sign for him though.

[skipos]

10. Kicking because

I would really like to hear from some Edwards supporters about this.
I would be delighted if Edwards won the nomination, but I am unbiased enough to admit that his distant 3rd place showing in about every state from here on out is a problem.
His best chance is bumping Hillary out and making it a two way race. If he comes in 3rd in NH, SC, NV and FL (which is what he is on course to do) how can he possibly get the nomination?

[K Gardner]

17. I can't do anything but guess.. but I really feel like the other

two campaigns have literally millions to pour in, but I'm not in SC so I don't know how much advertising is being done right now. So we're going still on name recognition and remember the Oprahlooza fest. That, plus there IS a media blackout on Edwards. That is undisputed fact. I still think, as we get closer, the race will be between Obama and Edwards in SC. But that's just me. I know in the Feb 5th states, there isn't a shred of advertising for anybody yet.

I just found out a few days ago my entire republican family is voting for Edwards. I didn't know they even knew who he was. We'll see how things pan out after NH, but don't count him out. He has a message to get out and he isn't going to quit. He said today "I'm in it until the convention". And I'm in it with him. Between Edwards and Obama, we have a powerful message to send to the nation and the world.. and those two can bring it :-)

[robbedvoter]

11. Republicans who supported Bush voted overwhelmingly for Edwards in 2004

They removed the party oath before voting a week before the election - specifically to give edwards a leg up over more progressive candidates.

[surfermaw]

14. Give me a link robbedvoter

[robbedvoter]

18. I used to keep CNN's exit polls in some archive - I only found from Georgia

Ohttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/GA/
index.htmlpinion of
Bhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/GA/
index.htmlush Administration
Angry (32%) 3% 32% 56% 2% 7%
Dissatisfied (43%) 1% 34% 58% 0% 6%
Satisfied (13%) 2% 64% 23% 1% 6%
Enthusiastic (8%) 5% 70% 9% 2% 11% - second number is Edwards

What they really want
Would You Be Satisfied...
Only if Edwards Wins (21%) 2% 88% 6% 0% 3%
Only if Kerry Wins (27%) 1% 4% 90% 0% 4%
If Either Wins (42%) 2% 42% 48% 1% 6%
Only if Someone Else (7%) 6% 34% 12% 7% 35%

Note that 70% of the Edwards voters are enthusiastic about Bush.

[SCDem]

15. He does not have a campaign structure here in South Carolina

I am in SC and Obama campaign staff was not only in the state as early as May but in the regions at least by May or June. Hillary was late in getting campaign out to the regions - not till November. And Edwards has yet to get regional campaign. All my friends in the area - who are supporting various candidates - are saying Edwards campaign in SC is virtually non existant.

[skipos]

20. Interesting...

That was my hunch. Probably a bad move to abandon a state he did so well in in 2004.

[Milo_Bloom]

19. Because he is running against his own record.

And most voters see his sudden rush of popularism as a cheap political move, like co-sponsoring the IWR in the first place.