Closer Post-Iowa Polls Don't Seem To Account for Record Independent Turnout

[Bullet1987]

By all accounts, what I've heard is that there's supposed to be a record turnout of Independents Tuesday. Some of these closer polls like from the Concord Moniter don't even mention Independents at all. If the Indies aren't being factored in, then most of these close polls are only of Democrats...which isn't accurate.

[papau]

1. they do factor a guess at indies in - and report H's lead in Dems but O leads in

Indies - so number of indies will determine who "wins" - Given 1000 of the 2000 at today's Obama event were college students that are unlikely to have voted in the past and are therefore indie - I'd anticipate O beating Hill by 15 points or more.

[emulatorloo]

2. Haven't I read that 45% of NH voters are Independents? n/t

[KingofNewOrleans]

3. Exactly, you don't do a poll in NH without

factoring in independents.