How Close is EDWARDS to Second Place in New Hampshire?

[FlyingSquirrel]

Well...

According to the most recent numbers......

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary

510 likely Dem voters

Barack Obama 189 votes - 37%
Hillary Clinton 138 votes - 27%
John Edwards 97 votes - 19%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nhdem8-716.html

600 likely Dem/independent voters

Barack Obama 228 votes - 38%
Hillary Clinton 156 votes - 26%
John Edwards 120 votes - 20%

So... in order for Edwards to take second place over Clinton, one way to do that would be to somehow sway 21 HRC voters in the first poll, or 19 HRC voters in the second. That's somewhere between 12% to 15% of her support. This of course does not take into account undecided voters and those supporting minor candidates who might change their minds in the final days.

It's a tall order. He only has 3 days.

So... can he do it? And if he does, even with the limited funds he has at his disposal and regardless of the almost COMPLETE lack of media attention, what would this say about his candidacy?

Stay tuned.......

[loveangelc]

1. hopefully he will have a chance taking on hillary in the debates...

[PresidentObama]

2. Edwards has time working against him--but expect him to fight, fight, fight for a strong showing.

He's campaigning in full gear in New Hampshire.

He's presenting a message that him and Obama are the change candidates, and Hillary is the status quo. And letting the voters know where he stands, as opposed to Obama.

And he'll have a good chance at getting his message out loud and clear tonight at the debate.

At least two polls in the last two weeks have shown him 6-8% from the second place candidate, that's somewhat promising when you consider how far behind he was.

And of course, his campaign had a record breaking fundraising day online the other day.

He's got some momentum coming out of Iowa, not sure if it'll be enough.

If he places strongly in NH, he'll be able to continue and compete at least.

[AzDar]

3. He KICKS ARSE debating. Give 'em no quarter, Johnny-boy!

:patriot:

[PresidentObama]

6. That he does. He's got a little momentum coming out of IA, tonights his chance.

He needs to shine, shine, shine.

And we all know he has the ability to do just that.

[MalloyLiberal]

4. He needs to move about 7 points to show Hillary a third place winner again.

Let's hope.

[fadedrose]

5. Suggestion for Edwards people

Sen. Edwards should be encouraged to let up a bit on his Southern accent. It's too Southern. I love hearing a gentle Southern accent, but not Edwards'. Also, he has to cut back on his yelling and sound more presidential.

Oh, and I support Edwards. He's been one of my favorites from the beginning - because of what he says, in spite of the way he says it.

Hillary has been rightfully criticized for her speaking and has improved. Edwards' wife could give him some tips; she's an excellent speaker.

[Hieronymus]

11. Yelling? He's being forceful ... a good thing. Didn't that guy in

your avatar get crucified for yelling?

[fadedrose]

13. yep

He sure did...case in point.

Look at the looming popularity of Huckabee - it's his laid back easy style. And his accent is not overwhelming. Reminds me of Tommy Lee Jones, even looks like him a bit.

Heard McCain today, he has a nice easy style too.

We all know what John Edwards stands for and love him for it. But it's time to cuddle, not rally. We've responded to his rallying.

He's quite a good lawyer from what I understand. Time to use his courtroom style. Less deep south...

I'm not talking about him changing subjects, just his approach, so that he's more approachable.

Does anybody else know what I'm talking about who could articulate it better than dumb ole me?

[fadedrose]

16. kick (nm)

[slick8790]

7. Technically, I don't think he needs second, really.

A strong third would keep him going too.

[Ravy]

8. if 2004 is any indication, Edwards will be in this thing for quite a while.

Don't confuse vote totals with delegate counts. Mathematically Edwards could come in second or third in every primary/caucus and still come out with a lead in delegates.

If he stays in, the possibility of a brokered convention looms greater... and that wouldn't be a bad thing for a candidate who is most people's first or second choice of the three.

[cali]

9. But realistically , he couldn't come in second or third and still lead

in delegates. And no political analysts think a brokered convention is in the offing.

[Ravy]

12. No, they all want him to get out soon.

I just don't think he will. If the polarization becomes Obama/Clinton and Edwards is a consistent second because of his different message, I think he will go well past Tsunami Tueday.

His supporters, me among them, will hang with him (mostly).

[ozone_man]

17. Political analysts thought that Hillary had it locked up.

Surprises happen. I think it is possible for a candidate to only have second place finishes and still lead in delegates in a three way race. If for example, Hillary wins half and Obama wins half, while Edwards placed second always, he may wind up with more delegates. I think the same could be said for having some third place finishes mixed in. It depends of course on how close the finishes are.

I'd love to see a brokered convention, where all states get a chance to have their say. That's democracy.

[karynnj]

21. You realize % wise, his second was not all that different than HRC's third

[K Gardner]

10. I don't think they're counting on 2nd in NH. They know its a tall order

but the campaign is not over, and they're not quitting after NH. I will actually have a chance to vote for him in my state, along with thousands of other people, on Feb 5th.

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. No, they're not counting on 2nd any more than they were counting on..

1st in Iowa. (Many of his supporters were really hoping, but that's different than the candidate actually saying it.) But I think JE is really hoping for a second-place win in NH regardless of what his campaign's official stance is, because the way he's talking shows that he knows his best chance for victory is to turn it into a two-person race. If HRC gets second place then it's still 3-way with him way behind on money and publicity. If he gets second place, HRC could really start losing support, while he would have the clear momentum and could call himself the main alternative to Obama. Start getting some serious donations and media attention (finally). Third place... I wouldn't be giving up, but it starts to look like even more of an uphill battle than it already is.

[K Gardner]

15. I agree with you to a certain extent, but I just feel that he's going to do

much better than anticipated in the South and in some of the Super Tues. states. We'll see. Obama's momentum may be hard to stop, and people will jump on that fast-moving bandwagon, but I do agree it needs to be Obama v Edwards.

[Infinite Hope]

18. If Edwards takes over 20%, it will be a victory. He has consistently been around 14% previously.

Right now there's only 1 delegate difference between he and Obama and New Hampshire will probably separate them by 1 more. If he takes second over Hillary, she's dead and it's a 2 person race where Edwards' chances are revived.

[Seabiscuit]

19. Debate performance tonight is crucial for John to increase his %

I think John needs to truly call out what is wrong with both Hillary's and Barack's bogus healthcare plans and clarify his own. He needs to solidify his position on Iraq on what his plan is and call out the others to be clear as well, not gloss it all over with well crafted and pretty words. Being specific and calling out the other candidates when they become vague in their answers should at least let us see what these candidates truly have to offer. Go John! Hang in there N.H. isn't the end all be all.


Note: Last night, Barack mentioned in his speech to the 100 club that he would deal with the healthcare issue by the end of his first term! WTF??? It's interesting how Barack mentions in all his speeches about needing change but I guess change comes slowly for those looking for healthcare to be one of the important issues of this election.

[karynnj]

20. Very tough thing to do - but HRC is helping with real dumb comments

There are of course two ways to get Edwards second - HRC screwing up OR Edwards doing well. The other thing is the quality of an Obama first. Dean got nothing for being second at 30 to Kerry's 45. The real question is whether the Obama momentum will cause the numbers to increase - as it did for Kerry in 2004. His initial numbers after Iowa increased over several days.