In Iowa, Somebody Was Right** - DMR Poll Vindicated, Hillary and Edwards spinners proven wrong

[jefferson_dem]

In Iowa, Somebody Was Right**

Needless to say, from the pollster's perspective, there were three big winners in Iowa last night: Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee and J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Des Moines Register.

As regular readers know, the final Register "Iowa Poll," released on New Year's Eve, showed Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by a seven-point margin (32% to 25%), followed closely by John Edwards (at 24%). The result was stunning, indicating a better Obama showing by far than in other recent polls. Only two polls released during the latter half of December had shown Obama even nominally "ahead," and neither margin was large enough to attain statistical significance. Earlier that day, our "sensitive estimate" (based on all other recent polls, but set to be more sensitive to the most recent) gave Clinton a 4.5 point lead over Obama. The Reuters/Zogby tracking survey released that morning (and conducted even more recently than the Register poll) showed Clinton leading Obama by 4 points (30% to 26%).

The explanation for the difference was even more stunning. "Obama's rise," the Register reported, was "the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents." The poll showed 60% saying this would be their first caucus and 40% identifying their party preference as Democratic. No other poll that disclosed similar results to Pollster.com came close on either measure. Within an hour or so of its release, the Register poll had been condemned by the Clinton and Edwards campaign pollsters as inaccurate, "at odds with history" and based on an "unprecedented new turnout model." The only way the poll would be accurate, Edwards consultant Joe Trippi said later, is if "220,000 people vote."

Despite the dark insinuation, Selzer had not changed her methodology. She had "assumed nothing" about the demographics or party allegiance of the likely caucus goers interviewed by her company. Instead, as she explained it to the News Hour, "we put our method in place, and we let the voters speak to us." In the face of massive skepticism, some of which seemed to come even from the Register's most prominent columnist, she stood by her numbers.

And yesterday, those findings were vindicated. Obama won by an 8-point margin in the official results and by approximately seven-points on the (more comparable) entrance poll head count estimate. The turnout was 239,000, nearly double the number from 2004. And the entrance poll put the share of first-time caucus participants at 57%. The only mismatch was on party -- 23% were independent or Republican on the entrance poll as compared to 45% on the Register survey.

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http://www.pollster.com/blogs/in_iowa_somebody_was_right.php

[Honeycombe8]

1. Yes, the Des Moines Register poll got it right! Even the DMR questioned its

poll results because they seemed to wacky...showing a bunch of Independents turning out. And it turns out, the DMR was RIGHT!

How DO they do it? However they do it, they seem to have a method for polling their caucus goers at the 11th hour.

Kudos to the DMR!!!! I hope SOMEONE over there got a bonus, or at least a day off.

[merbex]

2. Theyt only got 2 things right :the winner and the turnout

They missed the Hillary in third place and the huge jump for Edwards into 2nd place considering where they had him.

So maybe we can say they predict the winner but not the order of finishing as well

[Honeycombe8]

3. Well, they got the mix of who turned out to caucus: record no. of new caucus goers, Indies.

No other poll got that right.

Edwards and Clinton ended up very close, so third or second, or second or third....not much difference - except for Clinton, of course.

I wasn't talking about exact percentages. I was talking about who won and who turned out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. They Got The Indy Mix Wrong-From Their Own Survey

"23% were independent or Republican on the entrance poll as compared to 45% on the Register survey."

It seems Clinton got destroyed on second choice votes... Because the early exit poll reports indicated Hillary and Obama were running neck and neck...