Hillary's Iowa Gap In Zogby Poll Worsens After Second-Choice Allocations

[babylonsister]

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/zogby_poll_hillarys_gap_worsens_after_secondchoice_allocations.php

Exclusive: Hillary's Iowa Gap In Zogby Poll Worsens After Second-Choice Allocations
By Eric Kleefeld - January 3, 2008, 10:53AM


Some further data from this morning's Zogby poll points to Hillary Clinton doing very poorly as the second choice of non-viable candidates' supporters, and Barack Obama and John Edwards both doing quite well.

In an exclusive get by Election Central, we asked Zogby for information on how the final poll result would look after second choices are reallocated for voters who were in favor of candidates under the 15% benchmark for viability, thus adding those respondents to the top three candidates' totals. Here's what they gave us: Obama 37.5%, Edwards 33.7%, Clinton 28.8%.

The pre-reallocation numbers were Obama 31%, Edwards 27%, Clinton 24%, showing that Hillary's deficit only worsened after second choices were taking into account. There is, however, a caveat: The other candidates' voters are naturally a much, much smaller sample set than the sample as a whole, meaning that second-choice calculations carry a very large margin of error.

[David Dunham]

1. ARG today has Hillary pulling away 34% to 25% over "wine and cheese" set Obama

[Drunken Irishman]

3. You mean the same ARG poll that had Obama at 19% a couple weeks ago?

Yeah, I'm not buying it. Every poll has shown a tight race and then there is this ARG poll, showing Clinton in a romp.

[JackORoses]

6. will you cuddle up with that ARG poll tonight and have a good cry?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. What If He Disrespected You In The Manner You Disrespected Him?

I can imagine the response if you two were on another board and the poster had a more combative personality...He might say "No, I'll be cuddling with your mom." or "wife"

[JackORoses]

8. now that Hillary's getting her ass kicked it's all about respect

when she was the frontrunner, it was 'Resistance is Futile'

I'm glad you still feel the need to defend your fellow Hillarites even though you, yourself, have started to accept her impending doom.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Never Disrespected Anybody Unless They Disrespected Me First

As to her impending doom it's a long way from the lip to the cup...

[rinsd]

12. self delete not worth it

[JackORoses]

13. awww, I wanted to see what you had to say,

it's not often you get the opinion of a Political Genius

[book_worm]

9. ARG is either going to be acclaimed as the only one getting it right or an outliar

we will find out tonight.

[BringBigDogBack]

15. Classy.

[KennedyGuy]

2. well of course..Talkleft had a great article about how Zogby

altered his poll to reflect DMR poll..

http://www.talkleft.com/
"Zogby completes his book cooking and now has Obama firmly in the lead. It is not that I do not believe it is so. In fact I do. but like Zogby's cooking of his books, it is based on the DMR Poll".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Zogby Is The Joe Isuzu Of Polling

Before anybody accuses me of bias I'm calling this caucus for Obama...

[babylonsister]

5. I didn't recognize the blogger that said that as I don't go there

often. Do you know who it is? I don't put much weight in any polls but find the discrepancies with all of them interesting, which is why I don't put much weight into their validity to begin with.

[karynnj]

11. If true this is Deja vue for Edwards

37.5% vs 33.7% is not that different than 38% and 32%. Obama, like Kerry, has support in NH - where he doesn't. The only difference is that unlike 2004, where SC was the only real win for Edwards - Obama is likely to take it if he wins IA and NH.

[maryallen]

14. What I don't understand:

Four days ago, people who had inside knowledge of Obama's campaign staff said their "internal polls" indicated trouble ahead. Obama seemed flat and the mood from his camp was somber.

And then, the DesMoines Poll came out predicting big numbers for Obama from first-time voters and cross-over votes from Independents and Republicans ... and everything changed.

Something doesn't compute ...