Tighter Than A Tick In The Hawkeye State-Obama 34% Edwards 33% Clinton 32%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_OpinionFinal_DEM_Iowa_Poll.pdf

[Cameron27]

1. It all comes down to turn out.

[Adelante]

3. And what goes on in 1700 different rooms across the state

Almost like a unique election in each precinct.

Nobody knows until it's over.

[Cameron27]

5. Exactly

[NewHampster]

16. Not an election

Just heard an Iowan woman on NPR say she'll wait until she gets there to see what other people are doing.

Not an election at all.

[rateyes]

2. That adds up to 99%...

which discounts every other candidate, as if together they will pull only 1%. I don't think so.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. He's Adding In Second Choices

He's assuming the second tier candidates don't reach the 15% threshhold anywhere...

[rateyes]

8. Gotcha.

[PATRICK]

9. They must have

given only these choices in the poll or said "Other", or tried to be clever about other candidates surrendering their votes to the majors. That isn't even how it works in the caucuses. I was hoping everyone would get 40% and have everyone here too deliriously pleased to give it a second thought.

[maximusveritas]

6. So Obama's surging ahead. He was far back in 3rd last time in that poll

I still don't trust it though. It's a Republican poll

[Adelante]

7. They're sharing the Dem vote pretty evenly in that one

34% Obama
33% Edwards
33% Clinton

[tridim]

10. Has the Iowa caucus ever resulted in a 3-way tie or even a 2-way tie?

Craziness.

[suston96]

11. These weighted second choice numbers are a far cry......

...from what we have been given to believe up to today about those second choices.

If those numbers hold, the irrelevance of Iowa caucushit will be permanently set.

[creeksneakers2]

12. If its very close that helps Hillary n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. As A Edwards And Clinton Fan I Would Embrace Those Results

But John Edwards has grown in my eyes:




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJDFJna96sM&eurl=http://www.johnedwards.com/

[jenmito]

14. But I thought Obama got most of his support from Repubs.!

:shrug:

[BenDavid]

15. HRC campaign will need ever one of those 5000 volunteers

to help hrc win a narrow victory tonight.

Hey, nothing wrong since obama is relying on students from out of state to come and vote for him in the cacuses, and just how do we know these students are not registered to vote in their home state? Hey, I say if Obama wins it will be tainted just by the fact of the student vote and not knowing if they are or are not registered elsewhere. Maybe obama's win will have an * beside it....

but do not get me wrong, I say as I did in the aboce, hrc will have a narrow victory.....