Sufflolk County University New Hampshire Poll- Clinton 39% Obama 23% Edwards 17%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/editedNHDay2and3MarginalsJan32008.html

I guess we will learn shortly if Iowa and New Hampsire are a "pair" as the MSM suggests after Obama wins Iowa as I expect...

[rinsd]

1. DSB, what if McCain does well enough in Iowa to stage a mini comeback?

Won't that hurt Obama by drawing indies to the GOP primary?

[KennedyGuy]

2. sure will..thats the problem with relying on indies..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. We Do Need Indys In The G E

So it would be disingenuous to slam Obama for attracting them...That being said I'm not convinced New Hampshire and Iowa Indys are surrogates for Indys everywhere anymore than I am convinced that Democrats in San Francisco or Los Angeles are surrogates for Democrats everywhere...

[rinsd]

6. Indies are a big part of NH's electorate regardless of one's appeal to them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. That's The CW

The CW is that McCain will do very well in NH on the strength of independent voters...A Huckabee victory in Iowa makes that scenario more certain because it cripples McCain's main rival; Mitt Romney...

If McCain's not viable in NH, presumably many of the Indys would go to Obama...

[rinsd]

5. Yeah but I hate the CW!

;-)

I think because indies are such a large percentage of the NH electorate, the effect on Obama if McCain remains viable will be only a few points. But that could be the difference in a close race.

[TwilightZone]

7. Interesting subnote from that poll:

42% of Republican respondents and 37% of Democratic ones said that it's "somewhat likely" or "very likely" that they would change their minds by the time of the vote.

With such a short time left, those are big numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. The Saturday Night Debates Should Be Huge

I'd like to see Edwards, Obama, and Clinton duke it out because there is a 99% chance one of them will be the nominee...