Contest entrants pick Huckabee, Obama as caucus winners

[Hope And Change]

Contest entrants pick Huckabee, Obama as caucus winners


IowaPolitics.com viewers and subscribers expect Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee to win the Democratic and Republican caucuses, respectively, according to entries submitted in a caucus prediction contest.

The contest was circulated to IowaPolitics.com subscribers and viewers from Dec. 13 through Jan. 1 at 6 p.m. The results, while not scientific, provide some insight into how things may play out on caucus night.

The contest form asked entrants to predict the top three finishers in both the Republican and Democratic caucuses. Obama was picked by as the first-place finisher by 43 percent of entrants, followed by John Edwards, who was picked first by 37 percent of respondents. Just 19 percent thought Hillary Clinton would finish first. Predictions for Clinton's finish were almost evenly divided between second place (38 percent) and third place (39 percent).

The overwhelming majority of entrants picked some combination of Obama, Edwards and Clinton in the top three. The next-most popular candidate was Joe Biden, who got 3 percent of the second-place votes and 6 percent of the third-place votes.

On the Republican side, first and second place were more clear, but there was a wider variety of third-place predictions. Sixty-seven percent of respondents picked Mike Huckabee to finish first, and 61 percent picked Mitt Romney to finish second. John McCain got the most third-place votes, at 42 percent, followed by Ron Paul at 16 percent and Fred Thompson at 14 percent. There was no entry fee to participate, and the winner will receive a free IowaPolitics.com subscription. In all, 79 respondents correctly completed the contest form.

See the complete results below.


DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

FIRST PLACE
Barack Obama 43%
John Edwards 37%
Hillary Clinton 19%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

SECOND PLACE
Hillary Clinton 38%
John Edwards 34%
Barack Obama 24%
Joe Biden 3%
Chris Dodd 1%

THIRD PLACE
Hillary Clinton 39%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 23%
Joe Biden 6%
Bill Richardson 4%

What percentage of the vote will the Democratic winner have?
Average response: 34.9 percent


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http://blogs.iowapolitics.com/caucus/2008/01/contest-entrants-pick-huckabee-obama-as.html

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