NEW IOWA POLL: Obama crashes......badly

[DemKR]

New Iowa Poll: Obama Fading Badly
By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 02:10:35 PM EST
Tags: (all tags) Share This:
Now we see why the Obama campaign conference call seems to reek of desperation. A new Iowa poll:

Clinton 30 (24)
Edwards 29 (26)

Obama 22 (27)

:party:

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2007/12/31/151035/49

[DemKR]

1. K&R FOR AN AWESOME POLL

[comradebillyboy]

5. what the F.... is K&R?

please clue me in

[BootinUp]

8. :kick: and Recommend

[merbex]

9. Kicked and Recommended n/t

[comradebillyboy]

10. thanks very much nt

[DemKR]

11. thank u guys much

[merbex]

18. This explains the panic, nervousness and depression

I heard in the voice of a friend of mine today(this morning) who has canvassed every weekend in NH since August for Obama - driving up from the Boston area

My friend is at a level locally to know of news like this
On edit:

I meant to reply just to the thread not to an indiviual - sorry!

[DemKR]

46. they are focusing on new hampshire because they are DOA in Iowa

[shireen]

50. if Obama doesn't do well, tell your friend ....

that he/she played a very important role in the political process. His/Her canvassing work for Obama is the very essence of the democratic spirit. Your friend has given generously and selflessly to the Obama campaign; whatever the outcome, he/she did good work. Important work. And we are grateful to him/her, as well as all the other volunteers who gave their hearts and souls for their candidates in this very important election.

I know what it feels like. I worked very hard, as a grassroots volunteer, for Wes Clark's campaign in '04. I was devastated when he dropped out of the race. But over time, I've had a chance to think about what it all meant, and looking back, I feel proud of my work and know that I made a very small but important contribution to his current stature and influence in the Democratic party. Wes is brilliant, but he did not become a powerful figure in the party by the sheer power of his intellect and communication skills. He got there with the help of his supporters who worked hard to promote him during his presidential run.

Whatever happens to the Obama campaign, the good senator is increasingly becoming a stronger and more influential presence in Congress. Your friend can take some credit for that!


:applause:

[avrdream]

53. very nice and decent response in these last few days of madness, shireen.

[DemKR]

22. kick and recommended

[City Lights]

24. You recommended your own thread not once, but twice?

You are amazing!

[Catherine Vincent]

28. You've been here since 2001 and you didn't know what K&R meant?

:hi:

[alfredo]

87. Kvetch and Retch

[musicblind]

12. wow

what's really interesting is seeing the second choice votes ending so highly in Edward's favor. Wow, looks GOOD for him... and Clinton.

[City Lights]

14. How did you recommend your own thread?

:shrug:

I didn't think you could do that.

[mtnsnake]

26. I think DemKR was just suggesting that other posters should K&R it

I'm gonna give it a boot myself, right now! :)

[DemKR]

29. sorry...its just a habit to say K&R *blushes*

[BootinUp]

2. The age and gender stats

are fascinating as Mr. Spock would say.

[DemKR]

3. hard work is paying off :)

[BlueManDude]

7. the young love Obama, Edwards doing well with the older voters.

Hillary repelling the men.

[BootinUp]

16. Those rose colored glasses

aren't affecting you. /sarcasm

[Tejanocrat]

54. Those age numbers are BAD for Obama. Plus 2nd choice: Edwards 62%, Hillary 21%, Obama 17% - OUCH!

[BlueManDude]

4. Hillary doing horribly with men. No surprise there.

[DemKR]

6. sexist

[BlueManDude]

15. look at the numbers. she can't win a general with a gender gap like that...

I'll vote for her in November if I have to, but not many other white guys will. Sorry. It's the truth.

[BootinUp]

17. Looks like the men have a gender gap too. lol.

[DemKR]

21. fear tactic.

[CTD]

25. Wait a second. I'm a white guy who would never vote for her. But it has nothing to do with gender.

It's all about her foreign policy positions and pro-corporate stance. I would love to support a woman for president. But the issues are far more important to me than what sex organs a candidate was born with.

[DemKR]

30. riiiiiiight n/t

[BootinUp]

31. I don't think thats a fair comment unless

you know something about the poster I do not.

[CTD]

97. Keep telling yourself that the only reson someone would oppose Hillary is gender bias.

Go ahead, plug your ears with your fingers. I guess it's easier than somehow comprehending that good people can see things differently.

Just think back to any recent election where all of the "viable" candidates were white males and how all of us hold/held strong opinions pro and con about many of them.

Why would Hillary somehow be exempt from that?

I am EAGER to support a *progressive* minority or woman for president. EAGER.

But I am not voting for more of the same shit we've had these past 28 years just because she's a woman.

[loudsue]

55. I'm a woman, and I'm totally against Hillary. I'd love to have a woman president. Not her.

Not hillary.

[caseycoon]

58. Same here! n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

65. Self loathing girl.

[loudsue]

67. Guess again.

[Drunken Irishman]

69. It was a joke. ;)

[loudsue]

76. How could I tell, Drunken Irishman?

You were slurring your words! :hug:

[disndat]

71. ditto for me.

[Horse with no Name]

75. And I am a white female who feels the same way.

I cannot WAIT until we have an EXCELLENT progressive female candidate.
I wouldn't vote for Condi Rice simply because she is a woman, and I will NOT vote for Hillary just because she is a woman.
Her ideals do not match mine. Plain and simple.

[Beacool]

61. That only speaks of the sexism in our culture and how white guys feel threatened by a strong woman.

Their loss........

[wyldwolf]

19. Obama doing worse with women. The Oprah effect.

[Zorra]

74. This is why I do not want her to get the nomination.

Most republicans, and many "conservative Democrats" and Independents, are misogynists.

They will not vote for Sen. Clinton in the general election simply because she is female.

[gaiilonfong]

13. Only an Idiot like Armando would post this poll

LMAO!

Armando is as bad as Taylor Marsh.
Big Tent Democrat my butt, he is a loser!

[gaiilonfong]

20. Actually Armando by posting this poll YOU Reek of desperation

Too much!

[sandnsea]

23. OMG, this is Armando???? lolololol

Oh shit, that is too funny.

[DemKR]

27. whats with the attacks on hispanics from the obama crowd today, markos, armando, etc?

[Lurking Dem]

38. Holy shit!

You're in hyper victim mode?

Markos is Salvadoran and Greek, fwiw.

Armando got outed as a corporate attorney for WalMart and was subsequently banned from Daily kos.

[DemKR]

39. riiiight

[Lurking Dem]

41. What don't you believe?

[gaiilonfong]

68. Fiqures a Hillary supporter would race-bait

just like her campaign,
Sorry No sale, I am a Black Cuban...LOSER!

[beachmom]

73. He wasn't banned. He didn't think it was safe to post anymore after the Right

outed him. Then he created a new name, Big Tent Democrat, eventually being outed as Armando by users. He stayed on after the outing, but found he wasn't having much fun at DKos and left.

I don't know if he's anti-Obama. I think he defended him during the Pakistan controversy this past summer. Admittedly, I haven't been reading him lately -- is he backing Edwards?

Anyway, I think it best not to believe ANY polls at this point except for the one that really counts: the actual Iowa Caucus.

[gaiilonfong]

77. He is an Obama basher He is backing Hillary

Just like everyone at Talk Left.

[Lurking Dem]

40. Oh and guess what?

I'm a white woman who won't vote for Hillary.

[Stop Cornyn]

32. Of the last 10 Iowa polls, Obama led 1, Edwards led 1, 2 were tied, and Hillary led 6. Of the 10

Iowa polls prior to these 10 most recent Iowa polls, Obama lead 6, one was tied, and Hillary led 3.

Obama is letting this get away from him.

His "hope" theme cannot be run on a fuel of negative attacks of highly questionable unfairness.

Obama has spent almost as much time in Iowa as Edwards (Obama has spent only two days less time there), and Obama has spent more than three times as much cash as Edwards in Iowa. In this context, the fact that Obama is falling behind Edwards in the polls is a symptom of a broken campaign.

[DemKR]

33. So true n/t

[ecstatic]

34. flaky Iowans... at the end of the day, they'll pick Edwards

they're not ready for pronounced change.

[DemKR]

36. attack attack attack lol

[sampsonblk]

35. These numbers suggest a rout by Clinton

Clinton went for the older set and Obama went for the youngsters. Even if all those young voters show up for Obama, he's in trouble. But as we all know, they don't always show up.

As it stands, Obama could finish a distant (-5 to -10 pts) third. If so, he should drop out.

The good news for Edwards is that he's most people's second choice. The bad news is that a victory in Iowa doesn't change the math much for him. He still voted for the IWR. Only Hillary, for whatever reason, is getting a pass for that mistake.

[DemKR]

37. Agreed. Obama must drop out of the race if he wants any respect from Democrats n/t . He's DONE

[Lurking Dem]

42. LOL!

He has to drop out of the race (with the General 11 months away!) for Democrats to RESPECT him?

[DemKR]

43. I don't respect him either way

[Lurking Dem]

49. NO! Really???

[bigdarryl]

48. Iowa has most of the time never picks the winner of the of the nomination to....

say Obama should drop out if he comes in 3rd is stupid. the man has 70 million dollars Bill Clinton came in 4th in Iowa in 92 and wenton to win the nomination.

[loudsue]

56. Wrong. Only twice in history has Iowa gotten the wrong candidate in the primary.

On edit: At least for the Dem candidate. I don't know about repukes.

[sampsonblk]

82. C'mon bigd

Even Obama's wife said he has to win Iowa. I didn't just pull that idea out of thin air. He can't come in a distant third. I am sure he knows it too.

[Anouka]

99. And yet, it is important. It can't not be.

The freepers were talking about how with the polls leading into Iowa had Obama ahead of Clinton, the mass media was trying to cushion itself by saying that Iowa doesn't mean anything, that Iowa doesn't represent America and then position itself for Clinton being the comeback kid. That's Freeper conspiracy theorists for you.

However, if .. after the final results are in.. that same mass media dropkicks the meme that Iowa doesn't mean anything and Iowa doesn't represent America, particular if it is as close between Edwards and Clinton as it's looking... perhaps there was some method to the Freeper madness.

I don't know.

All I do know is, Obama in third (or worse) is bad. Is very very bad -- if you support Obama.

Obama's candidacy is not at all like Clinton's candidacy, and anyone who tries to ignore the issues Obama has to overcome that Clinton did not is being willfully blind.

Iowa means something. It's ok for it to mean it. We'll see, though. Anything can happen, any given caucus/primary/sunday.

[Auntie Bush]

81. Maybe because he pushed the IWR (co sponsered ?) and Hillary just signed it.

Big difference! Hillary didn't originate it or take it upon herself to get congress to pass it. She had to sign it or as a woman she'd never be able to run for president. The right would have laughed her off the stage as a weakling. That's why all the candidates voted for IWR. They HAD to look strong on national defense. They had just made fun of Kerry for not voting for some war...I forgot which one. No one dared not sign it...so give them a break.

[sampsonblk]

85. No breaks

Its called courage. The excuses you are making are unimpressive.

Just as Bush made up BS reasons for invading Iraq, those Dems could have surely thought of a passable reason to vote no. They pooped on us.

[Yukari Yakumo]

84. He should wait until after NH.

If both are routs, there really is no point on continuing on for him, is there?

[mzmolly]

44. And, with Edwards being many voters second choice, I think he's going to come out of Iowa

a winna!

[DemKR]

45. hillary's ground game is the best i've seen it. w'ell wait and see

[durrrty libby]

47. He's sinking in other polls too

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[indimuse]

52. this is great!

Go Hillary!:grouphug:

[DemKR]

60. its a beautiful day! nt

[Exultant Democracy]

113. it was a cold and bitter day, but it is turning out to be one hell of a great night!

[durrrty libby]

57. The Des Moines Register poll is out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3917578

[DemKR]

59. it looks good, but its just a prediction n/t

[durrrty libby]

72. Ooops ....yes prediction and I like it

[Drunken Irishman]

66. I think people will be surprised by the results.

And I expect Obama to be #1 in that poll.

The Des Moines Register poll is the only one I'll trust. And if it shows Obama down this badly, then he's toast.

[Drunken Irishman]

95. I called it!

[Pirate Smile]

62. Whose poll is that? What organization?

[Cameron27]

63. I like it!

K&R

[NoPasaran]

64. I'm still expecting Edwards to finish first, Clinton a close second

I think it's ridiculous to think that Obama should quit if he finishes third in Iowa. He has too big an organization and has raised too much money to throw in the towel so soon.

But his staff should be very careful what audio mix they send to the media at his rally on Thursday night. Just sayin'.

[tammywammy]

70. Edwards is leading by a big margin as second choice

I expect him to win Iowa.

[Major Hogwash]

78. Your source is a blog - off the internet!

Out in cyberspaced.

[DemKR]

79. if it was a poll you liked you'd think diff lol

[Yukari Yakumo]

83. Follow the links, the source is InsiderAdvantage. {nt}

uguu

[midlife_mo_Jo]

80. Go, Edwards, Go!

:hide:

[lisainmilo]

86. kicked

and recommended

[Thrill]

88. Forget the Polls

We'll see what happens in a few days.

[jenmito]

89. If this is true, Edwards will end up dropping out and most of his support will go to Obama...

Edwards is done if he doesn't WIN Iowa.

[BringBigDogBack]

90. OOOOOPS.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044

[ElizabethDC]

91. Shockingly, not all polls get the same results. n/t

[Joe the Revelator]

94. Yes but the final DMR poll is historically VERY accuarate.

This is excellent news for Obama.

[Joe the Revelator]

92. What is "Insider Advantage"? I've never heard of their polls

Do we know anything about them?

[DisgustipatedinCA]

93. How does this square with the Des Moines Register poll that just came out?

It's been triple-posted in these pages the last few minutes. And sure, polls have margins of error, but if nothing else, this goes to show you shouldn't have foolishly posted your hubris in plain view and talked of Obama's desperation as quickly as you did.

[Joe the Revelator]

96. I'll take the DMR's final poll over this no name polling firm

any day.

[Anouka]

98. Why title this Obama crashes and not the Wilder Effect?

I don't see anything worth cheering about or wearing party hats and throwing confetti over if results are going to be so divergent from polls?

I also don't think that Obama crashing and burning is his fault........ but where would that fault lie, if it is not his? The polls? those who answer the polls? or something else?

[rufus dog]

100. current results don't support this

Someone may have some egg on their face!

[BringBigDogBack]

101. Hahaha.

[Kucinich4America]

102. Actually, someone has something much heavier than egg on their face

A slab of granite, to be exact.

[tammywammy]

103. damn me being at work all day!

I can't believe it!

[rufus dog]

104. but people aren't going to vote for that colored boy

Different thread, same poster!

And this is a big FU!

[foo_bar]

105. just 19 pages of obsolete GD:P threads

Then again you didn't see many Kerry supporters here in Jan 2004 besides DrFunkenstein. Speaking of Doc Funk:

DrFunkenstein, I believe Obama bails before Edwards does...

...or there will be a time he should.

Edwards wins Iowa. Clinton will be second.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3528730&mesg_id=3529156 ("wyldwolf")

[Renew Deal]

110. He got banned yesterday

[rufus dog]

106. kick for fun

[dailykoff]

107. Prophetic!

[Scriptor Ignotus]

108. K&R

for gloating.

[Renew Deal]

109. lol

This jackass is gone, but this is funny.

[calteacherguy]

111. Happily kicked for fun...nt

[jgraz]

112. Whoops! Looks like somebody else beat Barack to the crash site.

Cookie anyone? :evilgrin:

[Kurovski]

114. I see that everyone's coming to bury Caesar, not praise him.

[AZBlue]

115. Actually your poll is correct - if you read from the bottom up!

Oops!

[XemaSab]

116. Too. Funny.

:rofl:

[Dr Fate]

117. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!

n/t

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

118. ?