My not quite final Iowa picks

[cali]

With 8 days to go, here's how I think it'll sugar off in Iowa:

Edwards- he's got a good ground game, lots of Union support and dedicated and experienced caucus goers behind him. And he's got momentum. Edwards by 6 to 8 points.

Clinton- organization, money, older and thus more reliable voters, women and Unions.

Obama- I put him third because I think a lot of his support is from younger people. Colleges are on break, and I don't believe enough students will return to make a significant difference. He still has enthusiastic support, and dedicated staff and volunteers, as well as money, but I think depending on young people to vote is risky. Obama behind Clinton by 4 points.

Biden- I'd love to see Biden surprise and break into the the top three but I don't see it happening. It's hard to compete with the money and organization of Edwards, Clinton and Obama. Biden places fourth 8 to 10 points behind Obama. Under 15%.

Richardson- Close to Biden, but under 15%

Dodd- perhaps better than expected but still below the 15% viability threshold.

Kucinich and Gravel- inconsequential support.

Pure speculation, of course. And I'll probably be changing my guesses in the days ahead.

[MNDemNY]

1. Looks about right..

considering JRE's support in the rural precincts, which are weighed heavier, and BHO's "college students" who , at best, will flood a relatively few precincts in the college towns.

[asdjrocky]

2. When you're right, you're right.

"The people who are for me are fearless."
-JRE

I personally know five people, including me, who will soon be in Iowa, making sure these are the results. And Cal, you gotta know, we don't give up.

[cali]

3. Have a great trip, rocky

and good luck. I don't know if I'm right here, as I said, this is merely speculation, but it's how it looks to me today. If it turns out this way, I think it does give Edwards a 10 pt plus boost going into NH. However, it's also not a bad result for Clinton. It's reflective of the fact that though the prefer-someone-else-to-Clinton-voters are in the majority, that actually heps Clinton, as Obama and Edwards are splitting it.

[Inspired]

4. Be fearless in western Iowa, Rocky!! n/t