New Hampshire: Graveyard of Pollsters

[calteacherguy]

An Oldie but a goody for your consideration this Christmas Eve...Happy Holidays fellow DU'ers! :hi:

New Hampshire: Graveyard of Pollsters

By Richard Morin and Claudia Deane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, January 23, 2004

"Now I know why they call this the Granite State," said candidate Bob Dole eight years ago after losing a Republican primary in the state for the second time. "It's so hard to crack."

Dole's assessment is as true for pollsters as for the candidates in New Hampshire, where bad methodology, bad timing or simply bad luck have produced some of the most memorable miscues in the annals of polling. Consider these flubs:

In 2000, the headline on an AP day-before-the-primary story was "Nearing the N.H. finish line; Polls declare GOP dead heat. . . . " John McCain then went on to beat George W. Bush by 18 percentage points.

The New Hampshire-based American Research Group's tracking poll ended up buried deepest in the snow bank: They had Bush winning by two the day before the primary, merely 20 points off the mark. On the Democratic side, the losing pollster at least got the winner right: The Quinnipiac poll predicted Gore would win by 17 percentage points, but he actually won by four.

It was the second debacle for ARG in as many New Hampshire Republican primaries. The day before the 1996 contest, ARG's Dick Bennett told the Union Leader, "It looks like Dole's going to win," based on the Kansan's seven point advantage in their tracking poll. He didn't, losing to Pat Buchanan by a single percentage point.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A41186-2004Jan23?language=printer

[MonkeyFunk]

1. And here's their last poll before the 2004 primary and the results

             Poll        Results
Kerry         35           39
Dean          25           26
Clark         15           13
Edwards       15           12
Lieberman      6            9
Kucinich       1            1
Sharpton       1            0


Not very far off at all.

[durrrty libby]

2. Well done MF

[BootinUp]

3. I was going to say I thought they did well on '04.

anyways, we all know not to hang our hats on one poll.