ARG Iowa Poll 12/24: Clinton 34%, Edwards 20%, Obama 19%, Biden 8%

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

(On Edit: Sorry for the dupe, and sorry for mistakenly maligning Save Elmer based on my own reading error. But the extra information here won't kill anyone.) The best headline of this poll is Obama dropping, Biden surging, Clinton and Edwards gaining, undecideds still undecided.

December 24, 2007 - Iowa Caucus Presidential Preferences

IOWA
Democrats Dec 16-19 Dec 20-23

Biden ...8% ...8%
Clinton .29% ..34%
Dodd ....3% ...2%
Edwards .18% ..20%
Gravel - -
Kucinich 2% ...2%
Obama ...25% ..19%
Richardson 7% .5%
Undecided 8% ..10%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 21%, which is unchanged from a week ago (Clinton 36%, Obama 23% among women). Obama has lost ground among men to John Edwards and Clinton. Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards is at 27%, Obama is at 16%, and Joe Biden is at 11%. A week ago, Obama was at 27% among men, followed by 21% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards.

Iowa Likely to participate in the Democratic Caucus by party:
Democrats (84%) No party affiliation (16%)

Biden 8% 11%
Clinton 35% 29%
Dodd 2% 4%
Edwards 20% 19%
Gravel - -
Kucinich 2% -
Obama 19% 20%
Richardson 5% 8%
Undecided 9% 9%

[Cameron27]

1. Thanks Kurt,

I don't know what to think about these polls, so I'll just enjoy this one for awhile lol.

K&R

[MadBadger]

2. I still dont really trust the poll. There is no way that Edwards is behind by that much

[cali]

3. Sure it's possible, as would the inverse be.

but who the heck knows? That's why I don't put any stock in the polls.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. They are not so predictive of numbers, but have things to say about direction.

I have little idea who is even leading in Iowa. All I would take from this poll is some suggestion of a positive for Biden and a negative for Obama.

Since Biden has run his first ads since the last ARG poll, and Obama has been advertised against for the first time since the last ARG poll, those two indicators are not senseless. Doesn't mean they're right, but it's kind of what I would expect.

We watch and hear the back and forth in the AP wire, blogs and cable news. Iowans watch and hear a torrent of ads. We see a different picture of the race.

[Lucinda]

21. One thing I've noticed that MIGHT explain an Obama dip

is that in the poll breakdowns i've been monitoring, Hillary's numbers are a LOT higher in areas of leadership, while Obama tends higher in honesty and the more inspirational questions. I expect the actual vote will break towards the leadersip element, so I won't be surprised if Hillary does very well.

But i still think anything is possible.

[MadBadger]

9. From all the numbers Ive seen, Obama gets the youngest crowd, and Clinton gets many seniors

And Edwards is split in the middle. I wonder if that could have something to do with the poll results as the younger crowds are more likely to travel during Christmas.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. It's just one data-point, same as all the others, but check out Biden!

ARG has always been relatively good for Clinton, so I would shade Edwards and Obama a bit higher than this.

What jumps out at me is Biden. He is now EXACTLY where Kerry was at this distance from the caucus, and has double digits (11%) among the unaffiliated Dem caucusers.

[gateley]

19. Hope is alive! Thanks for posting this!! nt

[BenDavid]

5. organization, organization will win this one for HRC

[durrrty libby]

10. I hope you are right BenDavid. I truly do

[KittyWampus]

13. what organization? She only really got serious in Iowa a little while ago.

[CyberPieHole]

54. That would mean she is doing well for someong who is so "un-organized"...

wouldn't you aver?

[CyberPieHole]

53. I hope you are correct, BenDavid...

it's a real nail~biter....I'm rooting for Clinton but it's not in the bag until all the votes are tallied. Let's hope people see through the sham of Obama's campaign.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. D'oh! My headline numbers were mist-ranscribed... fixed now.

The current headline is accurate

[Divine Discontent]

8. Thankfully, that's not how it's going to pan out

the thought of a Clinton nomination and her up there laughing inappropriately gives me the chills. We'll lose by a landslide to McCain or whoever their nominee is if she's what we have to vote for (or stay home).

I just hope the Edwards supporters back Obama or Biden (or vice versa) if one doesn't do as well in Iowa as they need to, so we can stop the Clinton campaign from winning - because there's more who say they'll NEVER vote for her than for any candidate EVER - and her negatives compared to the other candidates show it - month after month after month.

[durrrty libby]

11. lol

[Carrieyazel]

12. These polls are whacked out. No way Richardson is that low.

And no way Clinton is that high.

[BlueJac]

28. No kidding...........

Someone must be high

:shrug:

[elleng]

14. Kurt_and_Hunter, LINK?

I've been watching ARG, for momentum among other things, and now I can't find this recent poll. Last one I can find is:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

When Iowa was available on this earlier poll, Richardson was at 7% and Biden at 8%, and I'm ready to believe mo for Joe, and would like to SEE it!

Thanks!

E

[BootinUp]

16. its here

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-715.html

[elleng]

18. Thanks, Jim4Wes.

I'm a Clarkie, too, but came to Joe B recently. You?

[BootinUp]

20. I'm pulling for Hillary.

[dugggy]

15. Edwards will be the surprise just like in 2004 when

The front runners Dean & Hart lost and Kerry was the surprise.
If polls were wrong then, they could be wrong again.

[MonkeyFunk]

29. Hart?

In 2004? Huh?

Edit: Also, Kerry's win was no surprise. A few days before the Iowa caucuses, Kerry was leading with 26, Edwards had 23, and Dean had 20.

[dugggy]

34. Yeah the congressman from Missouri

was'nt he one of the leaders in Iowa polls?

Kerry was a real late comer if I recall correctly.

[MonkeyFunk]

37. Dick Gephardt?

[dugggy]

41. Bingo! Thank you.

The older I get the worse my memory gets. But I am getting smarter!!!

[Joe the Revelator]

17. If this holds, I just hope that Bloomberg decides to run...

So those of us with a brain will have someone to vote for in the GE.

[cali]

26. you mean those of you who are a wee bit addled. n/t

[oasis]

38. Yup, just like the Nader "brainiacs" who helped to elect George W. Bush in 2000.

:dunce::dunce::dunce::dunce: :dunce:

[Joe the Revelator]

42. I don't think you can compare a loon like Nader with Bloomberg.

nt

[oasis]

43. The possible results from a third party play by Bloomberg makes my comparison valid. (eom)

[Joe the Revelator]

44. I think Bloomberg can win if we nominate someone like Hillary

In fact, I think Bloomberg becomes the front runner in a Clinton/Huckabee GE.

[Quixote1818]

22. How come ARG is always so different from the other polls? nt

[Major Hogwash]

23. Because it's phony.

ABC, NBC, CBS, Wall Street, Washington Post, NYT, and many other polls have Obama ahead of Hillary by as much as 8 points in Iowa with Edwards on Hillary's heels.

[Lucinda]

24. They don't appear to be outside the MOE on average - here is a link to compare

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

45. Everyone uses different models of likely caucus-goers

That's why comparing movement between polls by the same company is more useful than comparing one company's polls to another.

Clinton does will in ARG polling, so their age allocation in their likely caucus-goer model probably skews older than others. Doesn't mean it's right, or wrong. All the polls make assumptions about turn-out.

[loveangelc]

25. Im not just saying this but ARG always seems to vary differently

from other polls. Not just lately, they usually seem to. But maybe Hillary did jump up that much...

[Lucinda]

27. Here is a link to compare them with other polls

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

They seem to be within the MOE with the other polls - for the most part

[autorank]

30. Thanks! K*R Anybody have info on the track record of Iowa causus polls

This is a very hard polling assignment. Just curious, not questioning this at all.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

39. In 2004 the last poll taken had the finish order correct, and that's the best one can hope for.

The actual percentages are impossible to predict.

[autorank]

40. Thanks.

Florida had a proposal for caucuses this year when the controversy over the early primary arose.
The arguments in favor of that versus an early primary that didn't count for much were pretty
decent. It jacks up party participation and involvement. There was an estimate of tens of
thousands showing up and getting lots of volunteers form that pool. They didn't do it, but the
idea was excellent.

The surprise in Iowa might be Paul. He's all over the place. What a great gift that would be
to them - a clean sweep of the pariah candidate in Iowa and NH. There's a certain unreality to
that entire field of Republicans. Paul, with all his money, screws up the normal order of things.
Huckabee is a strange dude with tons of baggage (they'll never win Missouri where his parole killed
two women), and those other three.

[rucky]

31. 10% Undecided

this will be a nail-biter

[paulk]

32. seems like all these polls are really showing is that Iowa

is completely up in the air and impossible to predict.

[jenmito]

33. Why did they do a poll the very next day after completing the last one?

Looks like they were pretty eager to change the results. I don't believe this poll for a second.

[Yukari Yakumo]

35. Becuase the Caucus is 9 days away.

Do yourself and your candidate a favor and stop whining.

[durrrty libby]

47. lol...good luck with that

[avrdream]

36. Another interesting tidbit for us to obsess about today!

Hillary is my gal but I'm sure tomorrow there will be some poll that shows different numbers. I'm trying not to get riled up about any of these numbers.

[Work4Peace]

46. The same corporate media that sold us the war

is now dictating our elections through the use of these polls. I don't believe anything they tell us...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

48. If it were a conspiracy they're not doing a very good job of it

Since the polls are all over the place.

[Stop Cornyn]

49. Obama's hypocritical attacks are DOOMING his promising candidacy!

[Steely_Dan]

50. I Hope...

that Biden continues his momentum.

-P

[Stop Cornyn]

61. Obama's collapse would offer Biden or Richardson or Dodd more hope because it seems that Edwards'

and Clinton's constituencies might be (potentially) smaller but more more deeply committed.

When Hillary goes negative, she's campaigned as tough so it isn't very shocking or inconsistent with her image.

When Edwards goes negative, he's campaigned as a fighter so it isn't very shocking or inconsistent with his image.

When Obama goes negative, he's campaigned as hopeful and a chance from politics as usual so it's very disappointing and inconsistent with his (phony?) image.

When Obama's image gets tarnished, he loses everything because image is all he's got.

Where do ex-Obama supporters go? I see them going somewhere other than Clinton. Edwards won't scoop them all up.

Biden and Dodd and Richardson seem likely recipients of ex-Obama support.

[Perry Logan]

51. It's his followers. Obama's followers alienate everybody.

[JackORoses]

52. and you think people are in love with Hillarites? your arrogance and ignorance is such a great combo

[ClarkUSA]

57. Ditto for Hillary, which is why she had to embark on a "Likability Tour" to beg people to like her

Her supporters are as charming as she is.

[ClarkUSA]

56. This drivel is by a Clintonian who says "Progressives are as useless as tits on a bull"

Why should progressives vote for Hillary then? Since we're so useless and all...

[bigdarryl]

55. Frank Luntz: No Way No How Obama is 15 points behind Hillary in Iowa Trust me

was said on C-SPAN this morning when he was on

[ClarkUSA]

58. That's okay... I'm glad Hillary Is The Frontrunner now... I hope the media talks about it non-stop.

Because frontunners never seem to win the Iowa caucus. ;-)

[Eurobabe]

59. Let's see who trends over the next few days

Biden is finally getting some traction. :D

[Think82]

60. I hope Biden keeps it going! I think he will