Is Hillary as worried about the primaries as the media would like everyone to believe? Hell no!

[mtnsnake]

Hate to disappoint anyone, but there's simply no need for her to panic, not when her position in the national polls among mainstream Democrats is still going so strong.

All this stuff about Iowa and NH is nothing but overblown hype by the media to keep everyone on the edge of their seats, watching their shows through cracks of their fingers, and to buy the products (mostly expensive prescription drugs) that their sponsors sell during the TV time-outs. Since they refuse to cover Iraq in an honest way, the media needs a big story, and they're creating one where there isn't any. It happens all the time.

The only way Iowa would matter is if someone had a huge expectancy to win going into it (like Howard Dean in Iowa) and then got crunched by surprise. The fact that it's a toss-up in Iowa means that all three candidates, including John Edwards, will still be in the running after Iowa no matter what happens there with its paltry 7 electoral votes. Same for NH, with its practically insignificant 4 electoral votes, especially in Hillary's case because her national polls are still so high. The only place I think Iowa will matter the tiniest bit is if Edwards wins, but even if he loses it just won't kill him like the media would love you to think.

Even the Imbecile in Chief lost in New Hampshire last time, and it just didn't matter a bit as he coasted to his party's nomination. In 1992 Bill Clinton didn't win in either state (He didn't campaign in Iowa and he lost in NH to Senator Tsongas) and look what happened.

Now if Hillary was only polling evenly at the national level with her other two main competitors, then there might be some cause for concern.

The only real significance that Iowa has is that it's the first primary, and in that sense it makes it a little interesting. The only reason the Iowa caucus SEEMS so big is because the MSM is making a 3-ring circus out of it.

So relax, everyone :smoke:

[phillyliberal]

1. well

I agree with most of what you said. The Clinton point is an interesting one, I wasn't aware of that.

However, I truly feel that once the primaries get going, Clinton's "domination" will become less and less believable. I truly think she will do poorly in most primaries. I think you will see a surge by candidates like Edwards, Biden, and Richardson.

[ccpup]

2. I've always believed

that January will be good for Obama, but February will be better for Hillary and she'll end up with the necessary delegates to get the Nomination.

I've never believed she was "inevitable" and I suspect that the race for the Delegates won't be dominated by just one candidate. In fact, it could be a bit of a nail biter with the post-February 5th Primaries being more important than usual.

In any case, I still think she'll be the Nominee at the end of the day.

[papau]

3. Wow - we had the same thought a while back it seems . Only I have not concluded

anything re the final result. There will be a 10% pop for Obama post Iowa and NH wins - but that may not be enough to take Hillary down.

But the media seems pro-Obama and that may get him past the finish line.

[ccpup]

7. I think it's dangerous to assume the Media

will be behind Obama should he win some of the early Primaries. The story-lines that sell newspapers or get Viewers to tune in are not of one succeeding, but of one failing ... the more miserable, the better. And the higher the perch, the more spectacular the fall (and the more interesting the Front Page Above the Fold story). The Media has a tendency to help people climb that perch and then push them off when in need of something to write.

Remember how Hillary went from "inevitable" to "struggling" after the Obama-Edwards-Russert tag-team debate? Much better story-line. And now we have the Media setting Obama up to be their next pinata and, with little to no experience with the National Press, poor Obama and Michelle are believing the hype, blissfully and naively unaware of what lies around the corner.

But don't fear. With their spotlights and rhetorical clubs lying in wait for Obama, we'll have a Comeback Kid Storyline waiting to be written about Hillary when she does better than expected in some of the early Primaries after a month of "dismal Poll numbers" and "flagging support", "desperate tactics" and "shrill speeches".

[papau]

22. that may well be true - she may win FL and Feb 5 WITH media not obviously actively against her

[NewHampster]

4. I believe Hillary will sweep Iowa, NH and the rest

As her Christmas Message said, "My wish for the holidays is that I have the opportunity to make a difference for those Americans who have been invisible for too long. It means so much to know that we share that wish and are working together to change our country. "

It is the invisibles and the un-polled that will sweep Hillary into the White House.

[ronnykmarshall]

5. I never bought the whole inevitable crap.

Probably because I've always said this was going to be a race and not a coronation. Anti-Clintoneese liked to whine and moan and throw that tag around awhile back. Funny how when polls started to change they (the polls) are now made of gold and not "Propaganda from the 'MSM' to crown Hillary the winner".

I'm very confident that a democrat will win the WH next year. So that god that means well won't have to wade through the same bullshit in 2012.

[BenDavid]

6. Now that is one truism as there ever has been-thanks mtnsnake

[Cameron27]

8. I'm not quite as relaxed as you lol,

but I think Hillary's going to take it in the end. I shouldn't be surprised at how easily the media manipulates our choices, they do it every 4 years, but it always takes my breath away watching it unfold anyway. Here's to the rest of the year after Feb!

[mtnsnake]

10. Whoever it is that ultimately wins the nod, I don't think Iowa & NH will bear much significance.

I'm only saying to relax about Iowa and NH, not about the ultimate outcome. I think too many people are buying into the media's circus of how significant Iowa and NH are, when I don't think Iowa and NH are nearly as significant as they'd like us to believe.

Here's to the rest of the year after Feb!

:toast:

[Rock_Garden]

9. And after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries?

The media will not hesitate to do a 180 whenever it chooses. It's never bothered me that the media has somewhat vilified Hillary during this campaign. She has maintained her nationwide lead despite their best efforts. It's the golden children of this campaign who need to fear the fickle beast.

[mtnsnake]

11. Exactly

The media will not hesitate to do a 180 whenever it chooses

Amen on that.

The media can catch fish where there ain't any. ;)

[Tellurian]

12. Yep, I agree..

All the m$m does is give prospective voters who aren't political junkies...their talking points. Chris Matthews does a wonderful job of doing the Republicans dirty work for them trying to alienate Democratic Primary Voters who ostensibly would vote for Hillary as the best qualified most experienced Dem for the nom by substituting her with Obama, the "greenest" unschooled candidate for an easy take down against the GOP in the General.

Hopefully, more narratives such as the great one written by Tom Rinaldo will pop up here outlining the very realness of the perilous reality we face in the General Election.

[calteacherguy]

21. Particularly perilous if it's a race between Hillary and McCain. nt

[Tellurian]

27. So, will you be changing candidates yet again?

[calteacherguy]

29. Nope.

And nice Santa.

[ccpup]

13. see my earlier Post above

if the Golden Children are naive enough to believe the Press is supporting them, they deserve to fall ... and fall HARD.

Hillary -- having been through the meat grinder that is the American Media -- knows exactly what's up and doesn't let it distract her. She doesn't buy the praise and doesn't let the barbs throw her from her game. I fear Obama -- and, to some extent, perhaps Edwards -- are still too new when it comes to how our Media works and are moving off their A Game thinking, because of the magazine covers and the effusive praise being heaped on them -- that it's somehow "in the bag".

And that's when they knock you down. And report on it, Page One, Above the Fold in Big Block Type. If you've bought into it, it can be devastating. In a race like this, just one week where you're off your game because the wind's been knocked out of you by a mean cover or an unflattering story (or, God forbid, a salaciously bad revelation), and you could effectively sink your chances of winning.

That's one of the things that worries me about Obama. He seems to believe the hype. And that's very dangerous, indeed.

[mtnsnake]

14. Good posts, both of them.

Thanks for posting.

I love posts like yours that delve into the psychological give and take of things. It makes for interesting conversation, to say the least. :thumbsup:

[ccpup]

16. interesting conversation

is DU at it's best. Much nicer than "your candidate eats babies for breakfast?" "oh yeah?" "Yeah!!"

[avrdream]

24. Good point.

"...the fickle beast." You got that right.

[Tellurian]

15. Thax, mtnsnake.. yes, we know our girl is relaxed and confident

It's the stealth forces of "THEFT" that is our worry.. Gore and Kerry won.. The only candidate I know of that won't put up with another stolen General Election IS Hillary. I know she will fight them to the death to keep what is rightfully hers. And she can also depend on us, her supporters, taking to the streets, if we have to this time around...to assure a Democrat retains the rights and wishes of the people to select a Democratic President.

[durrrty libby]

17. I agree that the MSM gives Iowa a lot more weight than it deserves

Iowa or no Iowa, Hillary has what it takes to go all the way

[jenmito]

18. Why are you trying to minimize the importance of the first two states? Hillary just told Iowans

that they are a VERY important part of choosing the next president. :shrug:

[phillyliberal]

19. just remember

that hundreds of thousands or millions will be out just VOTING against a Clinton. that is wat makes me me nervous..

[jenmito]

20. That's why I think most Dems. will wake up and vote for Obama.

He's not NEARLY as polarizing as Hillary.

[mtnsnake]

25. What does that have to do with the subject of this thread?

answer: Nothing

[mtnsnake]

23. What did you think she'd tell Iowans? That they're not important?

Of course she's going to tell them they're a very important part of choosing the next president, jenmito. Right? :shrug:

[jenmito]

28. Just pointing out the fact that Iowa obviously IS important to win...

regardless of the opinion of the OP. Just as is NH. She told them that because it's true.

[gmudem]

26. Blissful ignorance.

You can almost see the sweat coming from Madam Inevitable.

[Beacool]

30. I too think that she'll win the nomination.

I have said this ages ago when she was way ahead in NH and a little ahead in IA. I think that Hillary is the only candidate who can afford to lose in both states and still win the nomination. Despite the media drumbeat, I don't think that anything much has changed at the national level.

[William769]

31. K!