Is Edwards the favorite to win in Iowa?

[maximusveritas]

I know the polls show various things, but there's no question it's a close contest between the top 3. And while the polls can tell us the number of supporters for each candidate, they can't approximate a caucus just because of the way it's done. In the end, it will come down to who has the best ground game and who the caucus system favors.
So who has the edge?

According to most of the big pundits, it's definitely Edwards.

David Yepsen wrote an earlier article telling people to watch out for Edwards. And now Mark Halperin is doing the same.
http://thepage.time.com/halperins-take-what-john-edwards-has-going-for-him-in-iowa/

Halperin lists a number of reasons for why Edwards can and will win. Some of them are silly, but these are the big ones for me:

3. Big Labor help being quietly marshaled by one of Iowa’s top Democratic operatives and by Edwards’ 2004 campaign manager.
6. Caucus rules that work to the advantage of those with strong support in rural and blue collar areas.
16. High favorables and strong second choice support.
17. Trained precinct captains in almost every precinct – a true, old-fashioned organization.

It's hard to argue against those reasons. Not to mention the fact that Edwards did well in Iowa in 2004. A poll done of Iowa voters almost exactly a year ago showed Edwards way out in front of the other candidates with 36% support to Hillary's 16%. While the race tightened considerably since then, I think Edwards still has the advantage of having taken part in the caucuses before and done well.

Based on this, I'd give Edwards a 50% of winning and 25% each for Obama and Clinton.

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Maybe Each Of The Two Edwards' Have A 25% Chance?

Although I expect that "Now I'm for the lil' guy" Edwards has a slightly better chance than "War, "free" trade with China, and predatory lending hedge-fund" Edwards.

[frogcycle]

3. bite me n/t

[Catchawave]

14. me too !

:toast:

[K Gardner]

2. Despite the white noise, a lot of chatter at ground level in Iowa is going toward Edwards.

I guess we'll know Jan 3 :-)

[annie1]

20. convert the obama fans! :D

[asdjrocky]

4. No! n/t

[IA_Seth]

8. Perhaps not the media favorite,

But ask any Iowan (especially the Iowa DU crew), and if they're honest they'll say Edwards is definitely the favorite.

It is mostly due to his organization here in Iowa. Being 4 years old (at least), does wonders for a campaign. His ability to get actual caucus-goers to support him will definitely show on Jan-3rd.

I'd even go so far to say that if he doesn't get a 1 or 2 finish here, he's toast (or at least hurt badly). He's got it all going for him here, and if he fails to capitalize on THAT, how's he gonna do in the states where he's got more against him?

And please don't post your Edwards by the numbers cut/paste job, we've all seen it! Lol. I'm telling you as an Iowan that his Iowa campaign is FAR more than anything he's got anywhere else, and that is why I'm sayin it's do or die.

That said, I don't think you'll be disappointed Jan-4th.

[NCarolinawoman]

15. It's kind of ironic that for all the time he was helping himself in Iowa,

(he actually first traveled there in January '01), he was giving short-shrift to his own constituents in NC.

It really would have been nice to know back in '98 that he had no intention of taking seriously all the responsibilities that go along with being a good Senator. We didn't have a clue what his plans were.

Heck, there were a lot of good people running back in that '98 Senatorial primary. I bet if one of them had won, and put his nose to the grindstone for the residents of North Carolina, we might still have ourselves a Democratic Senator. Personally, I don't think that Edwards deserves a promotion.

[JMDEM]

5. Huge Edwards supporter here. But...

I have NO IDEA what is happening. There's been polls all over the map. Which are accurate and which are bogus? Who the hell knows.

For those in Iowa for Edwards -- campaign like there is no tomorrow, please!

[maximusveritas]

10. The polls don't really matter

They do tell us something about the candidate's support across Iowa.
But they have little way of knowing who will show up to the caucus. All they can do is make an educated guess.
And they have no way of factoring for the fact that delegates are not necessarily allocated according to the number of individual supporters. Rural areas get more delegates per voter than urban areas. Also, they don't account for the threshold rule. Some do make attempts to factor in for second-choices, but not at the precinct-level, which is how it's actually done.

[iamjoy]

6. We Can Hope So

I'm an Edwards supporter, so of course I'm biased. But I like Obama, too and would be happy if he were our nominee. I'd support Hillary if she's the Democratic candidate, but I don't think she can win. As for Richardson, great resume, but not very inspiring. Same with Dodd and Biden - great statesman, but can they motivate voters?

The thing is, it seems a lot of the pundits are saying if Edwards doesn't win Iowa, he's finished. But, if he wins Iowa - well, we might have a competitive primary. Personally, I think it's bad enough our nominee will be decided by Feb 5. I'd rather the contest go as long as possible. I don't see any advantage to knowing our nominee so far in advance of the election that a child conceived after the candidate is chosen is born before election day.

[ChiciB1]

7. I SO Wish I Could Be In Iowa Right Now, But Alas I'm Way Done Here

in the "land of Florida" and won't even get a chance to caucus or VOTE for him UNLESS he's the nominee!! I just finished watching Keith Olberman and his Special Comments and even HE mentioned Edwards as one, even though originally having been suckered in, AS SO MANY, MANY others were as a man who now believes and says so over and over that HE MADE A MISTAKE!

I wonder what it will take to open the eyes of America and see that Edwards really DOES want to bring back America? Many replies here will attack me, say I'm naive and have blinders on... but EVEN if the nominee should be another, I will know in MY heart that I supported a MAN who wanted to try his best to raise this country up and back to the once GREAT nation we were!

I no longer HOPE because I've seen too much and have become cynical. Something I said over and over, and I know that he will not be able to achieve all that he wants, BUT with our help... "we the people" can start to take our country back! You may not agree, and I know without a doubt that the "regulars" will will chime in with negativity... go ahead, sticks and stones!!

[ClarkUSA]

9. I think Edwards has the edge because of his strong rural county organizational support

Due to the peculiarities of the Iowa caucus system, 25 people in a room in Western Iowa counts as much as 2500 in Des Moines.
Edwards has the most precinct captains per county so it stands to reason that he's the true frontrunner, ergo Newsweek's
cover story, "The Sleeper."

[cali]

11. I think so. I'm just judging from the enthusiasm that's evident in Iowa

over the last few weeks. There seems to be a kind of electricity going on that isn't part of Obama's or Clinton's campaigns, but who knows?

[petersjo02]

12. Had a call from Edwards headquarters in Iowa City today

that they've moved my caucus from the court house to the high school in Tipton. Expecting at least 70 people, 37 of whom have committed to John Edwards. This same precinct caucus in 2000 was held in the living room of the country sheriff out in the country with maybe 10 people there. I'm getting a good feeling about John Edwards' chances this time. Our weekly public television political show featured John tonight answering questions from the Register's political reporter, the Iowa AP guy, and the guy who hosts the show every week. John was completely unflappable. As I watched it, I kept thinking that this guy really is the sharpest knife in the drawer. He's awesome.

[frogmarch]

13. Thanks for the encouraging report, petersjo

Your post would make a great opening post in a new thread. I hope you'll start one. :thumbsup:

[maximusveritas]

16. Interesting

How is that compared to how he did in that precinct in 2004?
I've heard some say an increased turnout would hurt Edwards since it would bring out new voters who weren't with him in 2004.

[lisainmilo]

23. I hope you are right!

BTW can you sway the other 33 of the 70????




:popcorn:

[BringBigDogBack]

17. Yes.

I think Edwards win Iowa.

[annie1]

18. it would be so awesome if edwards won IA and hrc came in 2nd. That would be ideal for me.

as long as either Edwards or HRC wins the nom i will be about equally happy.

[BeyondGeography]

19. Yepsen said Dean would win Iowa in 2004 because of his superior organization

and that was the day before the caucus.

I don't discount Edwards; Yepsen, on the other hand, is easily discounted.

[mmonk]

21. I did a post in October where I commented it sets up well for him.

What I'm hearing lately from people concerning internal polling data is that things are looking up for him.

[GreenTea]

22. No doubt - Edwards will win Iowa!