SUSA comes out with 7 general election polls: Dems strong in VA and KY, and McCain solid

[wyldwolf]

Apparently looking to release as many polls as is humanly possible before Christmas, SUSA came out with seven general election polls last night and this morning. The main lessons: Democrats (almost) sweep Virginia, remain competitive in Kentucky, but Obama would have trouble holding New York or Massachusetts against McCain or Giuliani, and McCain is (by far) the most competitive general election candidate.

First up then, Virginia -- which is probably the most interesting poll:

* Hillary Clinton demolishes all GOPers: 52% to 42%, Romney 53% to 40%, Huckabee 54% to 40%. McCain keeps it a toss-up, 48-46.
* It's closer with Obama, who beats Rudy 48-45, Romney 50-43 and Huckabee 51-42. But McCain comes out on top 50-44.

The second state which has had Democrats strong throughout the fall -- and surprisingly so, is Kentucky:

* McCain is the only candidate to beat Clinton, 50% to 44%.
* Clinton comes out on top against Giuliani 47-45, Romney 48-44 and Huckabee 47-46.
* Obama, however, is demolished by all Republicans: 50-40 against Rudy, 46-40 against Romney, 51-38 against Huck, and 53-35 against McCain.


SUSA then has polls from three of the most reliable blue states in the country -- NY, CA and MA:

* In California, Democrats never tremble and have some massive leads. Clinton demolishes Rudy 58-36 and even McCain 57 to 38. Obamais a bit weaker but he stays within double-digits: McCain holds him 52-39, but Obama gets 56-36 against Giuliani.

* New York is a bit more interesting: Rudy Giuliani gets Clinton down to... 55% (to 40%) and locks Obama in a toss-up in his home state (48% to 46%). McCain is also very competitive against Obama: 47% to 43%, but stands no chance against Clinton: 57% to 37%.
* The Democrats demolish the two other GOPers: Clinton hits 60% and 59% against Romney and Huckabee, while Obama beats them both 54-36.

* Finally Massachusetts, where Clinton crushes Rudy 57-37, Romney 60-34, and Huck 63-30, but beats McCain only 53-43.
* Obama stays on top but sometimes with difficulty: He crushes Romney 55-36, Huck 60-28, but it's only 50-41 against Giuliani... and a 47-45 toss-up with McCain.

And SUSA closes it off with two polls from red states: Alabama and Kansas. The previous polls from these states by SUSA had Clinton very very competitive in states that Bush won more than overwhelmingly. Democrats today stay competitive: the GOP has the upper-hand, but remember how less than red than normal these states are performing (Bush won Kansas with 62%

* First up, Alabama, where Clinton holds all GOPers to single-digits: 49% to 42% against Rudy, 49-44 versus Huck and 50-43 versus McCain. She forces Romney into a toss-up 46-45.
* Republicans perform better against Obama, who holds Romney in single digits 48-39 but is then crushed by the the three others -- 54-36 by McCain and 52-36 by Giuliani.

* In Kansas, Giuliani leads Clinton 51-39 and Obama 52-38. McCain does better, 58-35 against Clinton and 56-36 against Obama. Huckabee leads a bit more weakly, but it is Romney who has trouble: ahead of Clinton 49-43 and of Obama 44-43.

Democrats did better in last month's SUSA poll where they led four out of eight match-ups, but the bottom line is that McCain is the only candidate not massively under=performing on his party's strength.

http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/12/susa-comes-out-with-7-general-election.html

[rinsd]

1. But but but state head to head matchups don't matter!

Only national ones do!

:evilgrin:

[Beetwasher]

2. If Dems Take VA, GOP Has NO Chance Whatsoever

Add KY, and '08 will be serious Dem landslide. Yes, it's early, but these numbers are VERY encouraging.

Anyone of our candidates can win handily at this point.

[Deep13]

3. "Republicans perform better against Obama..."

The thing with Obama vs. R polls is that the R propaganda machine has not yet been unleashed against him like it has against HRC and, to a lesser degree, Edwards. It has been running full tilt since 1992 on the Clintons.

[JDPriestly]

4. If Hillary and Obama are doing that well in Ky and Va, just

think how well Edwards must be doing. Wonder why they didn't publish polls on Edwards?