McCain, Edwards Move Up Fast in New Hampshire

[JohnLocke]

McCain, Edwards Move Up Fast in New Hampshire
By John Nichols--The Nation Campaign '08 Blog
Friday, December 21, 2007
----
The "headline" story from New Hampshire is that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama still lead on the Democratic side among likely first-primary state voters, while Mitt Romney still leads among Republicans.

But the real story, the story that points to a rapidly evolving race, is the rapid rise of candidates who were once written off.

Clinton and Obama are tied at 32 percent each in the new USA Today/Gallup Poll. That's pretty much where they have been for the few weeks since Obama began surging in early December.

But rising on the outside is John Edwards, who at the start of the month was polling barely 10 percent in most surveys. Now, Edwards is at 18 percent. As in Iowa, where he is now essentially tied for the lead with Obama, Edwards is the candidate who is closing fastest at the Holiday season gives way to the actual caucusing and voting.

The news on the Republican side in New Hampshire is even more dramatic. While Romney is at 34 percent, John McCain is now up to 27 percent. McCain has been sweeping newspaper endorsements in New Hampshire and has just picked up the support of the Boston Herald -- which circulates widely in the southern regions of the first-primary state -- to go with the backing he received Sunday from the Boston Globe.

Rudy Giuliani is in third on the Republican side, with 11 percent. But Ron Paul, the libertarian anti-war congressman who has clashed with Giuliani on foreign policy, is at 9 percent.

What does this all mean? McCain is now a very good bet to win New Hampshire. Obama will probably win the state, as well. But Edwards, the likely winner in the Iowa caucuses, will finish stronger than expected in the first-primary state -- where he has been barnstorming through small towns and cities with singers Jackson Browne and Bonnie Raitt. What this means is that neither contest will finish as soon as was expected just a month ago, when stumbling Democrat Hillary Clinton and the fast-fading Republican Mitt Romney were supposed to have it all wrapped up.

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=262502

[asdjrocky]

1. First Rec!

8 points in this short of time, yes a pretty impressive showing in NH.

[lisainmilo]

2. Yes, it is!

:)

[balantz]

3. Chug-a Chug-a

Choo-Choo! He's comin' 'round the bend!

Choosy voters choose Edwards!

:kick:

[Clark2008]

4. I'm an extremely choosy voter (so much so that I don't have

a candidate, yet) and I would never choose Edwards.

Cute line, but I'm not peanut butter.

[asdjrocky]

6. Thank you for adding nothing to the conversation, as usual. nt

[balantz]

8. I'm just having fun.

I'm excited about my candidate.

[William769]

5. Thats only in one poll

If you average it out Rdwards actually drops in New Hampshire.

[frogmarch]

7. Thanks, JohnLocke!

This is very encouraging news for the Carolinian. :-)

K&R

[creeksneakers2]

9. That's a statistical trick

Since mid-November Edwards got 14% to 18% in every poll but one, the one with the 10%. There have been lots of polls to.

I could do the same trick for Hillary or Obama. Take their highest scores and subtract their lowest and I'd show a big boost for Hillary or Obama.

[waiting for hope]

10. Man - go figure ...

John Nichols is playing a trick...and for The Nation no doubt. :sarcasm: At what point is well respected writer and publication not taken seriously? Oh yeah, when it's about the other candidate.

[creeksneakers2]

11. I don't care who he is

My point is with what he claimed, not who he is.

I don't know the guy but there are plenty of Hillary haters over there at the Nation.

[waiting for hope]

12. Here's a bit of education:

John Nichols
Washington Correspondent

John Nichols, a pioneering political blogger, has written the Online Beat since 1999. His posts have been circulated internationally, quoted in numerous books and mentioned in debates on the floor of Congress.

Nichols writes about politics for The Nation magazine as its Washington correspondent. He is a contributing writer for The Progressive and In These Times and the associate editor of the Capital Times, the daily newspaper in Madison, Wisconsin. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Chicago Tribune and dozens of other newspapers.

Nichols is a frequent guest on radio and television programs as a commentator on politics and media issues. He was featured in Robert Greenwald's documentary, "Outfoxed," and in the documentaries Joan Sekler's "Unprecedented," Matt Kohn's "Call It Democracy" and Robert Pappas's "Orwell Rolls in his Grave." The keynote speaker at the 2004 Congress of the International Federation of Journalists in Athens, Nichols has been a featured presenter at conventions, conferences and public forums on media issues sponsored by the Federal Communications Commission, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Consumers International, the Future of Music Coalition, the AFL-CIO, the Rainbow/PUSH Coalition, the Newspaper Guild and dozens of other organizations.

Nichols is the author of the upcoming book The Genius of Impeachment (The New Press), as well as a critically-acclaimed analysis of the Florida recount fight of 2000, Jews for Buchanan (The New Press) and a best-selling biography of Vice President Dick Cheney, Dick: The Man Who is President (The New Press), which has recently been published in French and Arabic. He edited Against the Beast: A Documentary History of American Opposition to Empire (Nation Books), of which historian Howard Zinn said: "At exactly the time when we need it most, John Nichols gives us a special gift--a collection of writings, speeches, poems, and songs from throughout American history--that reminds us that our revulsion to war and empire has a long and noble tradition in this country."

With Robert W. McChesney, Nichols has co-authored the books, It's the Media, Stupid! (Seven Stories), Our Media, Not Theirs (Seven Stories) and Tragedy and Farce: How the American Media Sell Wars, Spin Elections, and Destroy Democracy (The New Press). McChesney and Nichols are the co-founders of Free Press, the nation's media-reform network, which organized the 2003 and 2005 National Conferences on Media Reform.

Of Nichols, author Gore Vidal says: "Of all the giant slayers now afoot in the great American desert, John Nichols’s sword is the sharpest."

http://www.thenation.com/directory/bios/john_nichols

I don't think he hates Hillary - but, if your rose colored glasses work for ya, go for it.

[Robbins]

13. Edwards

Many are saying him winning In Iowa would be good for Hillary but Kerry showed In 2004 winning In Iowa can help you In NH.I think the pundits writing off a win In Iowa by him as helping Hillary would be a mistake.Edwards Is still In this race.If he pulls It out In Iowa he should not be written off.

[creeksneakers2]

14. I don't care if he wrote the Bible and won a Pulitzer for exposing

the Watergate scandal. If the same logic he used to put Edwards up 8 points was used by Hillary she'd be up four. Obama would be up 8. Counting is counting and being published by In These Times doesn't change 2+2=4.

[saltpoint]

15. Good, timely post, JohnLocke, and apart from being very pleased about

The Carolinian's strong surge in NH, I'm also shocked by Giuliani's drop from top dog nationally to way down nationally, ad in NH, in danger of placing 4th behind a racist cretin like Ron Paul.

Just amazing.

[Caseman]

16. Ohhhhhhhhhhhh...

...So now Edward fans care about the polls. I see what you did thar!

[McCamy Taylor]

17. Edwards,the more you see, the more there is to like. Too bad the MSM all but shut him out

for a solid year. Good for the Democratic Party that it did not allow Florida to jump to the head of the line. That was a GOP plot to shut Edwards out of the running for good, since he would have had a tough time competing in a big state like Florida with his one-on-one style and his limited cash reserves.

The current Democratic nominating system was set up after 1968 to allow voters to select a populist candidate who would draw the base to the polls. Sometimes it does not work, sometimes it does. It is more democratic than the alternative---picking a candidate in a smoke filled back room based upon the wishes of those with money. This election, we have seen more interference with nominating process than at any time since Nixon ran his dirty tricks against Muskey or Rupert Murdoch took down Gary Hart.

The MSM needs to learn that it has no power to control elections. It is not a king maker. It isn't even Pravda. It is just a pathetic excuse for an information source that no one trusts or believes anymore, and as soon as the first competitor shows up, people will shell out their hard earned cash for that, instead, and all of their most talented journalists will jump ship. And then they will learn that in a free market system, it does you no good to own a media conglomerate, if you have nothing anyone wants to buy.

[annie1]

19. it's disgusting that the MSM conjured up some stupid spat btwn HRC and obama...

they did an incredible disservice to the american people and it's disgusting that it actually had such an effect.

[annie1]

18. yay Edwards!

[mmonk]

20. Thanks for that. My son and I were discussing if we ought to

take a few days and drive to New Hampshire or South Carolina and help out the campaign there (Edwards). Maybe with a little help, the momentum would grow. My son wants to help and I haven't made up my mind (in terms of support) and have been supporting different candidates (Kucinich in particular) but attended an early rally of his in the fall of 06.