New Zogby Poll: Obama Leads Top GOP by good margins....Huck, Guilani, and McCain all beating Hillary

[TeamJordan23]

UTICA, New York - Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows.

Obama

Romney: Obama leads 53%-35%
Huckabee: Obama leads 47%-42%
Giuliani: Obama leads 48%-39%
McCain: Obama leads 47%-43%
Thompson: Obama leads 52%-36%

Clinton

Romney: Clinton leads 46%-44%
Huckabee: Huckabee leads 48%-43%
Giuliani: Giuliani leads 46%-42%
McCain: McCain leads 49%-42%
Thompson: Clinton leads 48%-42%

Edwards

Romney: Edwards leads 50%-38%
Huckabee: Edwards leads 47%-41%
Giuliani: Giuliani leads 45%-44%
McCain: McCain leads 46%-42%
Thompson: Edwards leads 51%-35%

The performance of the Democratic candidates among independent voters is notable. For instance, Clinton trails Giuliani by one point (43% for Giuliani, 42% for Clinton among independents), but Obama leads Giuliani among independents by a huge 56% to 31% edge. Edwards leads Giuliani, 52% to 38% among independents. Clinton has similar trouble among independents against McCain, in that she trails with 37% support to his 46% support. In a prospective Obama versus McCain match–up among independent voters, Obama leads, 51% to 35%. Edwards and McCain are tied at 42% apiece among independents.

As among independents, Obama is the Democrat moderates like best, but his edge among moderates over Edwards is not nearly as pronounced as with independents. For instance, against McCain, both Edwards and Obama lead, but Clinton loses badly. Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 37% edge, while Edwards leads McCain by a 47% to 41% margin.

Clinton loses to McCain among moderates, with McCain winning 51% and Clinton winning 38%.

In polling stretching back to last year, Zogby International has identified moderates and independents as key voting demographics in the 2008 election cycle.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1404

[TwilightGardener]

1. Obama beats McCain! That's it then--that's our failsafe nominee.

[Dems Will Win]

59. Instead of 7 behind as with Clinton, Obama beats McCain by 4!!

Obama is THE ONE!

[killbotfactory]

2. Can you say "landslide victory" and "mandate for change"?

Because that is what is going to happen if Obama gets the nomination.

[TeamJordan23]

7. Even the DU Hillary supporters must know that she is going to have a hard time getting elected. nm

[annie1]

26. GOP is going to have a field day with her up and down. i'm quite nervous.

[AndyTiedye]

30. That is Why The Primary Race is so NASTY This Time Around

Deep down, the supporters of ALL of the candidates know they are going to have a very hard time beating the Repiglickin' machine, no matter who the candidate is.

[CyberPieHole]

61. Clinton is a shoe~in compared to Obama. Obama is the least viable of our candidates...

The repugs would love to run against Obama in the GE...they would win in a landslide. Clinton is our best hope come November.

[MGKrebs]

62. And I would say Edwards is even less viable because of the matching funds.

He would have a real hard time being competitive.

[AndyTiedye]

29. Don't See Any Democratic Landslides In These Numbers

If everything goes right for us, we might be able to squeak through with a narrow victory.
More likely, they steal it again. It's close enough.

Why do we have such lame candidates this time?

They are ALL polling at least 10 points behind a "generic Democrat".

[killbotfactory]

39. If Clinton gets the nomination, it will be close enough for them to steal

If Edwards or Obama get the nomination, people are so fed up with the republicans they will welcome the change, if only for a couple years. We may even gain significant seats in congress.

[AndyTiedye]

50. Edwards and Obama Are Not Leading The Huckster or McCain By That Much

and HRC is LOSING to both of them.

[killbotfactory]

56. Right now, they aren't.

But not many people are paying close attention to the race. However, the bad blood between Clinton republican base runs deep. The republican base has had their trust thoroughly abused by the party, they may be willing to sit out the next election or even vote for a democrat, so long as they are a fresh face and don't do or say anything monumentally stupid. The republican party will attack the democratic nominee relentlessly, but if it's Edwards or Obama, I don't think the base will pay much attention to it, since so many in their party are being exposed as craven liars. That changes if Hillary gets the nomination, she will have to battle over a decade of ingrained hatred and mistrust, and I don't think it's possible to overcome that in such a short time. I think it will put a fire under the asses of republicans and moderates and get them out to vote against her.

[Quixote1818]

3. Yeah, but this is a TELEPHONE survey!!!!

:sarcasm: :rofl:

[Renew Deal]

4. Hillary would be an electoral catastrophe.

VOters should consider that not only does she have nothing to offer, but she won't win, so it doesn't matter.

[speedoo]

16. That's what I have been saying for months.

I don't know yet who the best dem candidate is, but I do know that Hillary would be just about our worst.

[Triana]

24. that's why the lamestream corprat media is pushing her so hard...

...she can win against Repubs

[Rageneau]

34. You should preface your private opinions with "IMHO"...

such as, "IMHO, Hillary would be an electoral disaster."

Otherwise, impressionable people might presume you actually know what you're talking about.

[Renew Deal]

49. You should take your own advice.

IMHO

[MethuenProgressive]

5. I wish I belonged to the Zogby website so I could vote in their polls.

But of course, if you don't vote Zogby's way, you get deleted after a while.

[CTLawGuy]

12. however this is a telephone poll

thanks for playing though. Now go cry...

[MethuenProgressive]

17. Of people registered at the Zogby website.

You don't seem to know very much about certain topics.

[speedoo]

21. Wrong. Read the methodology, nt

[CTLawGuy]

23. I've never heard of a poll done like that

NT. The interactive poll is an experimental online poll and I know of no other "experimental" polls that they do.

[speedoo]

14. This is NOT one of those goofy interactive polls. It's very legit.

If you read the methodology on their site, you'll see that this is a legitimate, statistically sound poll.

[ima_sinnic]

37. it is very easy to register at their site--after that, you will get countless

e-mail invites to participate in polls.

[Quixote1818]

6. You have Edwards and McCain wrong

Your text says this: Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 37% edge, while Edwards leads McCain by a 47% to 41% margin.

Why does it say McCain: McCain leads Edwards 46%-42%???

[TeamJordan23]

8. The text is talking about Independents. Obama and Edwards lead McCain big among Indeps. nm

[Quixote1818]

10. Thanks. I don't know how I missed that. nt

[wyldwolf]

9. If Obama supporters have taught me one thing, it's (Say it with me everyone...)

NATIONAL POLLS DON'T MATTER.

:)

[TeamJordan23]

19. I can tell that Huckabee-Clinton number is bothering you. nm

[wyldwolf]

31. I can tell pointing out Obamanation flip flops on polls bother you.

[MethuenProgressive]

20. Shhh! We aren't supposed to talk about the past!

Especially when it contradicts ObamaNation's "Present".

[yodermon]

22. only national *primary* polls don't matter.

head-to-head matchups indicate electablity.
Or something.

[JackORoses]

33. National Polls don't matter when you are comparing candidates in the same Party,

because Primaries are not National.

But when you're comparing Dem and Repub, they are very useful.
They serve as evidence of electability.

[JackORoses]

44. are you too dense to see the difference between a National Primary Poll and a National GE Poll?

[Dawgs]

53. You're right. They don't matter.

[Dems Will Win]

60. They do when they show a huge change like this, that Obama is becoming known and so is Hillary

And the middle and the youth like Obama a whole lot better than Hillary, giving him a huge advantage nationally, an 11 point difference with Hillary vs. McCain, who is now likely to be tthe nominee.

[William769]

11. Now if he could only beat Hillary.

[annie1]

27. lol

[The_Casual_Observer]

13. Zogby predicted a Kerry Win in 2004.

[speedoo]

18. And they were right. Kerry did win.

But the rethugs stole it. Again.

[Occam Bandage]

35. Everyone else predicted a Kerry loss, by the same proportion that he actually lost.

Wait, are you claiming Kerry won the popular vote, too? That takes denial to a whole new level.

[speedoo]

38. I'm saying the rethugs stole Ohio, and therefore the election.

What that means in terms of the popular vote, I don't know.

I'm not a big Zogby fan. Like every other polling organization, they do some things well, some not. I just don't think it's wise to say that because they were "wrong" in 2004, they should be ignored.

[Occam Bandage]

45. "I just don't think it's wise to say...they should be ignored."

Completely agreed. The mere fact that a poll happened to be an outlier earlier (whether they were justified in that, we can argue) does not negate a later poll taken by the same company.

[rinsd]

15. Oh that poll is so old!

:evilgrin:

[annie1]

25. ouch. i think she very could well get her ass handed to her. Obama too...

i think edwards is the man to beat, but quite unfortunately, i don't think he'll win the primary.

[TeamJordan23]

32. Obama is doing better than Edwards according to this poll. nm

[elizm]

28. And there it is...

:applause: GOBAMA!

[GOPBasher]

36. Look at Hillary's numbers.

Why the hell does anyone support her? Are we actually trying to lose the friggin election?

[flpoljunkie]

40. But, but--it's her turn! Just ask Terry Mcaulife.

[Quixote1818]

43. No fucking kidding! This shit scares the hell out of me! nt

[AtomicKitten]

41. Whoooops ... there it is.

Gobama.

[flpoljunkie]

42. Zobgy's poll profoundly illustrates Obama is our best hope to win in '08.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. How Is Edwards Losing To Giuliani And McCain?

Edwards is beating him by four and five percent in aggregate polling!!!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[BeyondGeography]

47. Why Hillary again?

:freak:

[Carrieyazel]

48. If only leading in polls was the same thing as the actual election. Obama cannot win.

Many respondents say they could vote for an African American, but when they get to the polls, they change their mind and don't do it.

Here's one example (Which isn't the same thing I know; Gov. race different type of candidate).

Virginia 1989: Doug Wilder He was leading in polls by big margins; he ended up barely winning in the closest governor's race in VA history. He easily could have lost.

[samsingh]

51. i think that both hillary and obama will see their support

fall in the general election. i think Edwards support will go up.

[TeamJordan23]

52. For a country that is largely fiscal conservative; I dont see that happening. nm

[hayu_lol]

55. Some of you guys seem to forget that the 'beat the Repug' gimmick...

in the polls and in the new media is just that...a gimmick to get a program listened to or read about.

Primaries are not pitting one party's candidates against the opposition, it is about selecting a party's nominee.

We don't get to the opposition until a nominee is chosen and the GE begins.

Worry now about our nominee, worry later about beating whatever old clown the Republics toss into the ring.

[MGKrebs]

54. If Huck beats anybody, I damn well might find a new country.

because this one will have gone off the deep end for sure.

[maximusveritas]

57. Obama is the most electable

Great to see those numbers.

[Carrieyazel]

63. A sitting senator with no executive experience is not electable by any means

Remember, only 1 sitting Democratic member of Congress has ever won the White House. The odds are astronomical for Obama to win.

[calteacherguy]

58. It's the independent voters, stupid!!!!!

We nominate Hillary, we lose. You wanna lose????

Obama leads Giuliani among independents by a huge 56% to 31% edge. Edwards leads Giuliani, 52% to 38% among independents. Clinton has similar trouble among independents against McCain, in that she trails with 37% support to his 46% support. In a prospective Obama versus McCain match–up among independent voters, Obama leads, 51% to 35%. Edwards and McCain are tied at 42% apiece among independents.