Watch Carefully: We are about to witness the imploding of the Reagan Coalition

[Perky]

Everyone loves watch the controlled detonation of on of those midrise casino/hotels on the Vegas strip being cleared to make room for some new gaud and glitz. We are about to see the same thing in the GOP.


If you look at the early tilts, a combination of divergent politics and demographics suggest that no consensus nominee is going to emerge before Tsunami Tuesday. Here are the latest RCP averages:

State Huckabee Romney McCain Giuliani Thompson Paul Spread
IA 30.1 24.4 10.1 8.6 9.6 6 Huckabee +5.7
NH 10.1 31.4 22.6 15.3 3 6.4 Romney +8.8
NV 15.3 23.7 7.3 23.7 9.7 5 Tie
SC 25.8 19.3 13 12.8 13.5 6.3 Huckabee +6.5
FL 23.3 19 11 25.3 8.8 3.3 Giuliani +2.0


Thompson and Paul are toast, but there is no sense given the spread on the other candidate that there support is going to go in any particular direction ANd given Paul's bankroll and the depth of support he could certainly stay in through February 5 as a spoiler or king maker.


So the GOP faces Tsunami Tuesday, not with just two "viable" candidates (like the Dems), but four plus Paul pulling 5%. It is extremely likely that 2/5 (given it proximity to the the early tilts) will mean that each of the candidates is going to go to where their base support it to pull as many delegates as they can, score a couple of wins and stay viable. So the GOP's option are not going to be whittled one whit by Super Tuesday. And given what is left after Super Tuesday, They are certainly looking like they will be fighting through multiple ballots in Minneapolis.


But here is the thing: The Reagan Coalition was a marriage of convenience. no doubt cobble together on the cult of Reagan's personality and it has been sustain on the hope that the Stnaard beared is the the New Reagan. But this election, each coalition element has their own candidate. Social Conservatives, Fiscal Conservatives, Strong Defense advocates and western libertarians. It is difficult to see which one of the dolts is going to have the ability to to pull the coalition together.


But hear me out. Denver is the last week in August. Minneapolis the first week in September. The only way the GOP rallies and coalesces around a ticket is if they have a rallying point and that is Hillary Clinton.

With any other nominee, the glue that keeps the GOP together simply does not exist and it will descend into a chaos and internal recrimination they may never be able to recover from. With Clinton at the top of the ticket, the Religious right will rally behind a Social liberal like Rudy to stop her and he will carry the South and it will come down to Ohio again. But anyone else at the top of the Democratic ticket, the zealots will take a walk and might even bolt the GOP altogether. They could field their own guy or sit it out altogether. The recriminations could last a decade or more.

If we put Hillary at the top of the ticket...maybe she wins....but maybe we lose the Senate int hte process...SHe certainly will have the effect of bolseterin weak GOP senators.


So here is my question for Hillary supporters. is your support for her so entrenched, so monolithic? Is she so "great" that you are willing to support her even though she is the only way that the GOP is going to rally in this election cycle?

I am not dismissing your right to support her. I am appealing to a greater ideal; a more valuable end result: the demolition of the Reagan Coalition and a permanent Democratic Majority in this country. Is she really worth it?

[acmavm]

1. Do I understand your point here? Help me out if I'm wrong. You're saying

that even though the republicans are fielding a bunch of candidates who are so bad that they can't even qualify for a position as restroom attendents, we're gonna lose because of a dem candidate??????

I don't like the woman, I don't like her husband. But this is really funny.

You Barrie/Hils supporters are providing more entertainment than I've seen in a long time.

[Perky]

3. Huh

NoI am arguiung that because the GOP is non the verge of imploding, we should not nominater Hillary because it throws water on the fuse.

I thinke the coming implosion of the GOP is a much higher ideal than having Hiullary at the top of the ticket.

[MADem]

2. I don't know if she is worth it, or who I am voting for, but I think McCain is gonna be the GOP

candidate. Huckabee is too Jesusy, Mitt the shitt is a lying Mormon, Giuliani lisps like a Castillian courtier--AND, there's more Kerik woes on the way, Thompson looks like a drunken shar-pei, and Ron Paul isn't a major factor. He just isn't. Who does that leave? Old Boy McCain, who's looking NORMAL in comparison to that field...!!!

The way Fox News is touting Obama, you'd think they wanted HIM to be the guy to go up against McCain...if McCain ends up as the nominee, and like I said, I think he's got the best shot of the bunch.

I don't really get why you think Clinton would be a problem. I think any candidate, her included, could win. And as for the SENATE? I'll be shocked if we don't pick up a SHITLOAD of seats.

You do realize that a third of the Senate seats are up for grabs, and something like 22 of them are GOP? And I'm not even counting the recent resignations--that was just in the normal rotation.

I anticipate important gains in both the Senate and the House.

We'll see, though. There's plenty a slip twixt the cup and the lip after all.

[Perky]

5. McCainhas problems

I think you are right he is the onlyone to hold the GOP togther.

But he is old, he has to win somewhere rahteth than continually placing a respectable 2nd or third.

And this is most important. He had to have the money to continue to compter for delgates on SUper Tuesday and beyond. Those are signigicant obstacles.

[MADem]

6. He has problems, but they are VETTED problems. They aren't new

We know about his Keating Five, BCCI, Cindy the Pill Popper who had a stroke, ex-wife he treated like shit, all of his tantrums on the Hill when he was at OLA...all of his shit is out there, and it is OLD. He's old, too. But he's Known-Old, not New-Old.

I don't think he's gonna win Iowa, but if Romney keeps fucking up, he could win NH. Even if he comes in SECOND in NH, that will be as good as a win. If he can place or show in IA, he'll be in good shape, but even if he blows it there, and does well in NH and SC, he's still very viable.

If he comes up with a big win or two, the money will flow to him....as it does. People like to back a winner.

[Chipper Chat]

4. You just nailed the perfect storm for the GOP:

Hillary as DEM Nominee
+ Klandestine Karl's dirtywork (digging up Whitewater and Paula, etc)
+ fundy preachers hammering away every Sunday to "get them christians to the polls"
+ die-hard republicans who would rather eat a turd than pull the DEM lever
+ Blackwell lackeys (Jean Schmidt anyone?) pulling off another Ohio theft

.........AND YOU GOT IT: President Rudy McRomnabee!

[Uben]

7. Is she really worth it?

All you have is a theory that is weak at best. Clinton leads all national polls, and beats all republican candidates. To think even one person would pull support for a hunch is grasping. I see so many here making up theoretical scenarios trying to justify
not putting our leading candidate on the ballot. While it is still early, and any one of the top three could pull this thing out,
Clinton is the one to beat at this point.

I notice you give no scenario that shows any consequence of any of the other fine candidates we have winning the nomination, so one can only assume you are anti-Clinton and are working towards those ends.

Right now, I am leaning Clinton because she polls strong, has the monies to put up a viable campaign, and has a campaign staff experienced in winning elections. You cannot discount these facts.

Yes, she is worth it, moreso than the rest, in my opinion, at this point. If we have another candidate who surges in days to come and looks to be a better option, I can, and will, change my support. I am leaving all cards on the table. I don't see any republican beating any of our top three candidates in the general election. I think that says it all for our field of candidates this year!

[Yuugal]

11. "I am leaving all cards on the table."

Can you see that some of us are not? Voting for a pro nafta, pro patriot act, pro war corporatist is just "off the table" for me. Those polls that show her barely edging out the reps don't take into account how many people like me there are who will never vote for a corporatist again. I made that mistake in 92 and 96 and the result was a shovel wound to the back of my head while I was smelling them pretty flowers at the back of the dlc garden along with alot of talking about helping people in my economic group but no action. We got nafta and a rep congress for 12 yrs for supporting the dlc clintons.

What has happened in the congress over the last year should be lesson enough to any working class progressive of why we can't afford any more corp cash poisoning our party. Even when we win, we lose. The average rep voter may be a pretty dim lot but we shouldn't make the mistake of thinking the smart, rich people who own the corporate party don't have a clue or a plan. In fact, their plan seems obvious to me: Let the rep wing of the corporate party put up the usual sellout corporate hack. Have the MSM which they own promote the most corporate, divisive candidates they can find in the dem wing of the corporate party. If they get one of their people the nom and they happen to be a woman or black, so much the better. In the fall there will be a 3rd party running as our side rips itself in half and the reps can coast in because it doesn't seem the "I want a woman/black at all costs" people can reconcile with the "I wont vote for any more corporate whores" people.

If I wanted a woman or black candidate so bad that I didn't care how tainted by corporate cash they were, I'd vote in Condi and kill 2 birds with one stone. At least her shoes would be nice.

[Yuugal]

8. I just had an almost uncontrollable urge

to post that Hillary drivel thats 3 miles long that the Shillbots plop into every thread. :)

She is as sold out as they get for a DLC corporatist and has run a lame campaign so far but with all that money she might be able to buy the nom. We are so totally screwn as a party at that point. Anti war, anti corporatist people like myself will flock to whoever has the guts to go for the inevitable 3rd party run and the reps will get to continue wrecking our country.

One day our party will see corporate money and working class votes don't mix. I hope that day comes next year.

K&R for your brave op and some :popcorn: too. :)

[Onlooker]

9. I think you're forgetting how effective hate is

The Republicans managed to rally their troops around opposition to gay marriage, Kerry's swift-boated war record, Gore's perceived woodenness. No matter who the Democratic candidate is, the right wing will do everything they can to turn him/her into a villain because it's all they have. I don't think one Dem has an advantage over another in the gen'l election, since elections are more about marketing and packaging than anything more substantive.

[bluerum]

10. If you could spell check, I would take this seriously for more than two

microseconds.

As it is, it gets three nanoseconds.

[AndyA]

12. If there's one thing that can convince Republicans their candidate is OK, it's Hillary.

Republicans really, really, really have a hatred for her that will allow them to convince themselves that anyone on the right side will be better than Hillary. And she will be a lightening rod that will guarantee a turn out among GOPers.

I've already heard their excuse, "I will not stand by and allow that woman to be our next President. I don't like any of the Republican candidates, but I will vote for any of them to keep that woman out of the White House."

Then they mention the BJ, Whitewater, she was a corrupt attorney in Arkansas, blah, blah, blah, all of which we know is bullsh!t.

They have a lot to dredge up on Hillary and Bill, and with anyone else, some GOPers might just stay home and not vote, but with Hillary, they will be out big time to prevent her from being President. They won't vote FOR a Republican, but they will vote AGAINST Hillary.

Like it or not, that's what I'm hearing.

[Perky]

13. You are hearing the truth.

[Perky]

16. .

[VarnettaTuckpocket]

15. My Republican stepfather shocked me by saying he supports Hillary in '08

Perhaps she isn't as polarizing as you think.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

14. Aw. That's tol bad. Really

:popcorn:

In specific response to your question, my concern about Hillary is just what you've described. She may be the only candidate we can field that would cause the conservative coalition to regroup.