WP, pg1: Iowa Poll Spotlights Importance Of Turnout; Obama and Clinton Lead the Democrats

[DeepModem Mom]

Iowa Poll Spotlights Importance Of Turnout
Obama and Clinton Lead the Democrats
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 19, 2007; Page A01

Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York remain deadlocked in Iowa, with former senator John Edwards of North Carolina trailing, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that underscores the importance of the massive efforts the Democratic candidates have set in motion to turn out supporters on Jan. 3.

In a race that could hinge on a campaign's ability to motivate voters to brave wintry conditions and spend hours attending caucuses, each of the leading contenders appears to enjoy distinct advantages. More of Obama's backers said they are certain to participate than did those who have gotten behind Clinton. But Clinton's supporters are the most committed and enthusiastic, and Edwards counts among his supporters experienced caucus attendees who are more likely to turn out again. Enthusiasm for a candidate and familiarity with the process are critical components in the caucuses, in which voting takes place in public after speeches on behalf of each of the candidates, and complex rules dictate the allocation of delegates.

The three front-runners are pouring resources into the state, viewing the caucuses as potentially decisive in the battle for the Democratic nomination.

Obama has gained ground on Clinton on the question of which Democrat is seen as most electable in November 2008, which had been one of her early calling cards in wooing voters. Clinton retains a significant advantage as the candidate with the best experience to be president. Overall, 33 percent of likely caucusgoers support Obama, 29 percent Clinton and 20 percent Edwards. A month ago, four percentage points also separated Obama and Clinton at the top (30 percent to 26 percent)....

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Adding to the challenge for Clinton and Obama is that they are relying more heavily than Edwards on potential first-time caucus participants. More than half the supporters of Clinton and Obama have never caucused, while two-thirds of Edwards's backers have done so....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/18/AR2007121802183.html