Not a Poll, but Obama is leading all the Dems on INTRADE for Iowa, NH, and SC.

[TeamJordan23]

One of my Professors told me the trends and results on Intrade tend to be more accurate than the polls or other predictors in the market. Not sure how valid that claim is.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Click on 2008 Primaries.

[Double T]

1. 0% validity.

The only one that believes polls have ANY credibility are the polling organizations themselves.

[calteacherguy]

4. It's not a poll, it's a predication market.

Want to make a wager?

[Double T]

6. No. Sorry. I only bet on SURE things.

[TeamJordan23]

7. I agree, but it tells good trends imo. nm

[Lint Head]

2. Edwards will beat the odds.

:dem:

[calteacherguy]

3. This part is interesting....

DEM.IOWA.OBAMA
Barack Obama to Win 51.0 51.1 51.1 1505 -8.9
DEM.IOWA.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to Win 22.2 28.9 22.3 925 -6.7
DEM.IOWA.EDWARDS
John Edwards to Win 15.3 28.7 28.7 1040 +17.7

It's clear where the movement is for Iowa...

Still, no movement for Edwards wining NH....

DEM.NH.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to Win 45.0 49.9 49.7 519 +0.7
DEM.NH.OBAMA
Barack Obama to Win 50.0 55.0 50.0 522 0
DEM.NH.EDWARDS
John Edwards to Win 1.9 3.0 1.9 149 -0.0

[skipos]

5. I watch Intrade all the time, and that claim isn't valid

Those places didn't predict the Dem sweep in 2006 at all. They also didn't predict Kerry's nominatio in 2004. It is interesting to watch though. They still have the $ on Dame Rudy and Hillary to be the nominees.

[Lasher]

8. Another look

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

Scroll down a little to see Intrade live quotes.