Does a poll mean much if only 12.5% polled are under the age of 45?

[Dawgs]

I'm not saying it does mean something, it just doesn't feel right.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_Democratic_Iowa_caucus_poll.html

Total, 977
18-44, 122 = 12.5%
45+ = 855 = 87.5

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Its probably a decent representation of Caucus turnout

I don't see more then 12% of Caucus goers being in that age group.

[Dawgs]

3. You realize I posted 18-44, not 18-30, right?

I can see 30%, or even 25%, but 12.5%. That's like 1 out of every 10 are over the age of 45. That seems right to you?

[Joe the Revelator]

5. In Iowa?

To be concise, yes.

[Dawgs]

15. To be factual, that 12.5% number is historically a little off.

It should actually be somewhere in the thirties.

[slick8790]

2. Not sure, could go either way.

Older people do tend to be more consistant caucus goers. However this year might have an influx of young college students. Basically, I have no idea.

[rinsd]

4. Insider advantage gets funny undersamples for some demographics

According to CNN's exit poll, 17-44 accounted for 32% of the caucus goers in 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/IA/

Here's my discussion of their undersampling black voters in SC of all places.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3818678#3818736

[MadBadger]

8. 17 year olds voted?

[rinsd]

9. 17 year olds are allowed to caucus if they are going to turn 18 before the GE.

[Donnachaidh]

6. spin baby spin...

That Edwards poll really stings, don't it? :rofl:

[Dawgs]

11. "That Edwards poll"

You do know that Obama is leading 26.6 to 26.0 among likely caucus goers?

[geek tragedy]

12. Do you know anything about polling

or statistics?

This poll had only 1/3 as many 18-45 year old's as it should.

[Dawgs]

13. And, according to others on this thread it should be 32%, not 12.5%.

:shrug:

[FrenchieCat]

7. Doesn't matter, because polls take on a life of their own.....

and can have a positive effect for said winner/leader of that poll, and a negative effect on the loser of the poll.....

Just like it doesn't matter that a polls says which Dem candidate could beat various GOP candidates but yet is a poll measuring the results of an election that will come an entire year away!

Bottomline is that there is still a message being sent,and it is the message that folks pick up on, not the methodology or even the relevance of that poll.

The message of this polls, is that Edwards is rising, and the rest are falling. period.

[Dawgs]

17. So, you're okay with the results even though they don't reflect the truth?

:shrug:

[rinsd]

18. In some ways the poll does reflect the truth. A statistical 3 way race.

[FrenchieCat]

19. It doesn't matter what "I'm OK with"....cause I don't count as much

as I would hope.

Polls influence which is why polls suck, IMO.

These polls will be touted, barring the methodology, and that's the way it is. :shrug:

Look for more polls to follow this poll, that will reflect basically the same thing, cause polls affect other polls.


I don't trust or believe any of them.

Observing the media talk and looking at the result of polls that come out gives one more political information on how things will go than just simply looking at any poll and how its results were achieved.

[geek tragedy]

10. It was actually 32% in 2004. n/t

[Capn Sunshine]

14. by the way, split about 50-50 between Dean and Edwards

IIRC.

[Bitwit1234]

16. Oh dear...here we go...since the bussed in students choose Obama

does that mean everyone does...you got a lot to learn. The under 30 crowd DON'T VOTE. It is the Americans who know what is going on in the country that don't jump and bump for American Idols. That is why Obama has a snowballs chance in hell.

[JackORoses]

20. this actually refers to the under 44 crowd which does vote, nitwit

you Hillarites really get pissy when you are losing. :)