New Poll: John Edwards LEADS IN IOWA 30% to Clinton's 26% to Obama's 24% (also leads second choices)

[jsamuel]

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1218_89.aspx

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Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll
By Tom Baxter
Southern Political Report

December 18, 2007 —

John Edwards has leapfrogged over his rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll. In the Republican caucus race, Mike Huckabee continues to hold a narrow lead over Mitt Romney.

The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third.

Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.

Edwards holds a significant advantage, however, among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate.

Under both screens, Edwards leads as the second choice of these voters, with Clinton trailing Obama.

[Joe the Revelator]

1. What the hell? Johnny coming up on the inside...

I really wish he hadn't taken matching funds. Such a bad idea.

[Pirate Smile]

4. That is the big problem. I don't see how he ends up winning the nomination.

It ends up helping Hillary.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. Must Be The Love Child Bump nt

[maximusveritas]

3. But among the likely voters, Obama still leads

But Edwards has gone ahead of Hillary

[jsamuel]

5. They both have 27, Obama does not "lead"

Plus Edwards wins in second choices.

[MadBadger]

7. Obama has 26.6 percent and Edwards has 26.0 in that category

In this poll it is clear that Edwards would win and I think Obama would end up taking second. Having said that, I have never seen an Insider advantage poll in Iowa yet, so I still want to see the other polls what they are saying.

[sandnsea]

6. Enjoy it for about 12 days

By Dec 30, the media is going to go back to Hillary as soon as the Clintons are sure Edwards wins Iowa.

[ChiciB1]

30. MY Two Cents???

GO, JOHNNY, GOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[sandnsea]

38. ABH

I'm just not counting on it is all. I'm not going to sit in a puddle for a month like I did Nov 2004.

[jefferson_dem]

43. Not to dredge up those nightmares but ...were you a Deaniac or a Clarkie in 2004, sandnsea?

I showed up just after the nomination wrapped up.

[sandnsea]

46. 4JKB4IA - JK all the way n/t

[librechik]

8. Ah, and listen to the distracted media, only talking about their horses, Hill and Obama

there just aren't enough brain cells to do more than he said she said.

[MadBadger]

9. That really isnt true lately

Ive been hearing a lot of John Edwards. Hardball was completely dominated by Edwards today.

[librechik]

10. makes me nervous--but it's about time!

[Dawgs]

11. FWIW, only 12.5% of those polled are under the age of 45.

I'm not sure what it means, but that number seems pretty low to me.

Cell phones?

[Capn Sunshine]

17. FWIW

average age of Iowa caucus goer: 55

* Hopefully, not this year

[Dawgs]

19. I understand that, but only 1 of 10 under the age of 45?

That doesn't seem a little off to you?

[Pirate Smile]

20. That does seem low. I wonder what the demographics were of the last caucus

and what the age breakdown is of the other polls.

[rinsd]

12. The plot thickens!

[loveangelc]

13. oh snap

[David Zephyr]

14. Democratic voters don't want to see the in-fighting that's been going on.

Edwards learned his lesson and backed away from the Hillary bashing. Obama took the bait and Hillary hasn't stopped it yet.

John Edwards and Joe Biden are speaking to the voters as adults and with respect currently. This will only further their cause.

There's a lesson here.

[MadBadger]

15. delete wrong thread.

[goodgd_yall]

45. I was always hoping the bickering

between HRC and O would blow up in their faces.

Not that I'm confident John Edwards can take the nomination, but this climb in the polls does give me more hope.

[Tarheel_Dem]

16. This is excellent news, I hope he can pull it off....

The endorsement of a popular Governor's wife sure didn't hurt. Go Edwards-Biden '08!......

[Donnachaidh]

18. Wait -- what'sa that sound I hear in the distance?

My God -- look at all the jaws with carpet lint at the Obama and Clinton tables! We'll be seeing even more bruised chins happening down the road!

Go Edwards!!! :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Guaranteed]

21. Kaboom. Knew it was coming. nt

[JackORoses]

22. 2 things to consider when reading this poll:

#1 This is the first InsiderAdvantage poll out of Iowa. We have nothing to compare it to, and cross poll comparisons are not very accurate.

#2 Obama is actually leading the LV which is what most pay attention to.

Still this is a schwag result for Hillary so I am pleased. ;)

[jsamuel]

25. no, Edwards is leading the likely voters

Obama is tied with Edwards in the "highly likely voters"

Edwards still beats Obama among second choices in both "likely voters" and "highly likely voters"

[Dawgs]

32. No, Obama leads 26.6 to 26.0 over Edwards among higly likely voters, and...

This poll leans to older voters 9 to 1.

BTW, realclearpolitics.com picked the 'highly likely voters' poll to use for it's averages in Iowa.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[jsamuel]

34. is rcp being consistent?

do they usually use "really likely voters" or "highly likely voters" over "likely voters"?

Second of all, the leaning is corrected. Third of all, the margin of error is +-3%, so to argue that 0.6% is leading is just plain funny. Forth of all, Edwards still leads Obama and Clinton in second choices in both "highly likely voters" and "likely voters".

[Arugula Latte]

23. Please let Hillary get her ass kicked ... Please let Hillary get her ass kicked...

Please let Hillary get her ass kicked ... Please let Hillary get her ass kicked ... Please let Hillary get her ass kicked ...

[Renew Deal]

24. The Hillary Attack Machine is going to have to focus on Edwards now.

They'er going to let the big dogs out.

[Lucinda]

35. Nah....Obama will do that. Edwards doing well helps Hillary right now

Obama has already been stepping up to the plate.

[Zueda]

40. ditto...

...I love Edwards, he's my very close second favorite but ultimately defeating Clinton is what matters most to me and I just think Edwards will be a one-trick pony in Iowa...He may get a tight second in NH from an Iowa bounce but he is to far behind in money and support to go against the big money Clinton and Obama have outside Iowa. Looks like Clinton's plan to death spiral with Obama in Iowa just might pan out.

[laureloak]

47. Iowa win = Money pouring in. Just like Kerry.

Obama isn't ready and all the money in the world won't change that fact.

[bigwillq]

26. I just can't wait for the caucus.

All these polls are mind-numbing and, imo, don't mean crap until an official vote is counted.

GO DK! :bounce:

[zulchzulu]

27. Let the final round around the turn begin!

Hats off to the Edwards fans for the new numbers. But I do like that sentence "Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent."

Get your grassroots engines up and running!

[K Gardner]

28. He and Obama are also leading in natl polls on matchups with Repubs... n/t

[asdjrocky]

29. Hopeful, but cautious. nt

[TheWraith]

31. I wouldn't put much on this.

Every other poll has Edwards as second or third place. It sounds like this one is an outlier.

[ShaneGR]

33. Good, I hope Edwards wins....

In a landslide, as he should.

[calteacherguy]

36. It says Obama leads among likely caucus voters, with Hillary third.

I'm convinced Hillary will take third, and it will be a race between Obama and Edwards.

[jsamuel]

37. no

Edwards leads among likely caucus goers. You are reading "highly likely" caucus goers. Even then, it is a three way tie with the MOE.

[calteacherguy]

39. O.K., Obama leads among highly likely caucus goers.

With a tie within margin of error.

Edwards has a good chance to win it. I think it's going to be a race natiionally between Obama and Edwards. I think Hillary will be largely out of the picture after NH, and definitely after SC.

[Skip Intro]

41. But...I thought Obama was surging? What's going on?

Are Iowans moving away from Obama?

[Lucinda]

42. I don't know about Iowa, but the media is boosting Edwards right now. And swatting at Obama.

[goodgd_yall]

44. This is fantastic news!

Hope it keeps up!

[samsingh]

48. i'm beginning to believe that Edwards is our best candidate